NEC Nijmegen vs Telstar preview

Netherlands flag 2026/2027 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Goffertstadion
Eredivisie
NEC NijmegenNEC
1 2
TelstarTEL
Full Time
Round 1 Regular Season
Kaj Sierhuis - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
Rui Mendes - 24'

CONTEXT

In a surprising result at the stadium, NEC Nijmegen fell 1-2 to Telstar after leading in most statistical categories. The home team controlled 71 percent of the possession and amassed 2.5 expected goals throughout the ninety minutes. However, Telstar capitalized on their opportunities to score twice before the interval, establishing a 0-2 halftime advantage. NEC responded in the second period by pulling one goal back but could not find an equalizer. The away side's efficiency proved decisive in securing the three points against a stronger opponent. No players were dismissed from either side, allowing the match to unfold without numerical imbalances. This victory for Telstar underscored their ability to defy the expected goals narrative and claim an away win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Telstar. Telstar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome did not align with the expected goals metrics.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: NEC Nijmegen generated 2.5 expected goals compared to Telstar's 1.37.
  • Event impact: The away team secured an early lead that shaped the contest.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued during the match affecting the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Lindhout
A. Lindhout
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Frijn
D. Frijn
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. van Marrewijk
R. van Marrewijk
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Ordelmans
J. Ordelmans
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
NEC Nijmegen D. Schreuder
D. Schreuder
VS
Telstar H. Brugge
H. Brugge
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.62
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 70 W
FC Groningen Rank: 70 L
Telstar Rank: 69 D
FC Twente Rank: 79 D
Feyenoord Rank: 82 D
Excelsior Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Volendam Rank: 61 W
Heracles Almelo Rank: 57 W
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 76 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 68 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 76 L
FC Groningen Rank: 70 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.08
68.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
Power Score
76.08
68.57
League Position
15
4
Global Rank
140
320

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NEC Nijmegen — Opponent-weighted form score
Telstar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NEC Nijmegen Telstar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

NEC Nijmegen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Telstar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

NEC Nijmegen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Telstar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.99
32.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.59
45.99
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
NEC Nijmegen +1.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Telstar -1.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

NEC Nijmegen
vs
Telstar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
11%
77%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.28 vs -1.06
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
77%
11%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-1.06 vs -0.28
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
NEC Nijmegen
vs
Telstar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
NEC Nijmegen 0.24
Telstar 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
NEC Nijmegen Telstar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
NEC Nijmegen 0.07
Telstar 0.01
NEC Nijmegen
Telstar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NEC had peak pressure around 94'.
  • NEC started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
NEC Pressure TEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NEC reached the top pressure at 94' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NEC Nijmegen NEC Home
2 matches
Telstar TEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-09T00:30:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Goffertstadion
Capacity
12500
Attendance
12650
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Allard Lindhout
Don Frijn
Roan van Marrewijk
J. Ordelmans

Statistics

Possession
NEC
66%
TEL
34%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 3
113 Dangerous attacks 29
71 Possession 29
13 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

58 Ball Safe 80
4 Goal Kicks 12
14 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 20
2 Hit Woodwork 0
16 Successful Headers 6
1 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2
8 Dribble Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 6
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32

Attacking

140 Attacks 56

Possession

18 Long Passes 26
552 Passes 227
257 Successful Passes 94
89 Successful Passes Percentage 70
23 Key Passes 7

Defensive

0 Saves 3
11 Tackles 9
9 Interceptions 7
57 Duels Won 42

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

1
Gonzalo Crettaz
Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper
6.27
2
Brayann Pereira
Brayann Pereira Defender
6.59
6
Darko Nejasmic
Darko Nejasmic Defender
6.66
14
Kaj Sierhuis
Kaj Sierhuis
Attacker46'
7.14
24
Deveron Fonville
Deveron Fonville Defender
7.11
8
Isak Hansen-Aarøen
Isak Hansen-Aarøen Midfielder
6.74
25
Sami Ouaissa
Sami Ouaissa Midfielder
7.15
7
Emre Mor
Emre Mor
Attacker79'
7.06
35
Jamiro Monteiro
Jamiro Monteiro Midfielder
6.49
3
Philippe Sandler
Philippe Sandler
Defender64'
7.15
99
Clement Bischoff
Clement Bischoff Midfielder
6.62
9
Tjaronn Chery
Tjaronn Chery (C) Attacker
7.18
10
Dušan Tadić
Dušan Tadić Attacker
8.16
20
Noé Lebreton
Noé Lebreton Attacker
7.05
11
Willum Thór Willumsson
Willum Thór Willumsson
Midfielder64'
6.92
Referee : Allard Lindhout

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronald Koeman Jr.
Ronald Koeman Jr. Goalkeeper
7.18
2
Jeff Hardeveld
Jeff Hardeveld (C) Defender
6.4
3
Gerald Alders
Gerald Alders Defender
6.88
5
Prince Aning
Prince Aning
Midfielder64'
6.41
4
Abdelnour Soualhia
Abdelnour Soualhia Defender
7.98
43
Marvin Peersman
Marvin Peersman Defender
7.14
7
Rui Mendes
Rui Mendes Midfielder
6.94
8
Emirhan Demircan
Emirhan Demircan
Attacker55'
6.82
10
Tyrone Owusu
Tyrone Owusu Midfielder
6.67
18
Gabi Caschili
Gabi Caschili
Defender70'
6.35
11
Soufiane Hetli
Soufiane Hetli Midfielder
6.63
6
Isaiah Ahmed
Isaiah Ahmed
Midfielder63'
6.31
17
Nils Rossen
Nils Rossen Midfielder
6.53
—
Nils Rossen
64'
27
Patrick Brouwer
Patrick Brouwer Midfielder
7.79
9
Jelani Seedorf
Jelani Seedorf Attacker
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kaj Sierhuis
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
83'
Event
Emre Mor → Sami Ouaissa
10th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Ronald Koeman Jr.
Delay of game / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Isaiah Ahmed
Tripping / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Gabi Caschili → Tyrone Owusu
9th Substitution
Event
Isak Hansen-Aarøen
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Philippe Sandler → Jamiro Monteiro
6th Substitution
64'
Event
7th Substitution
64'
Event
Willum Thór Willumsson → Noé Lebreton
8th Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Prince Aning → Gerald Alders
4th Substitution
64'
Event
→ Nils Rossen
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Isaiah Ahmed → Soufiane Hetli
3rd Substitution
Event
Brayann Pereira
Tripping / 1st Yellowcard
57'
55'
Event
Emirhan Demircan → Rui Mendes
2nd Substitution
Event
Kaj Sierhuis → Darko Nejasmic
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Rui Mendes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1'
Event
Patrick Brouwer
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Emre Mor takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emre Mor takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emre Mor takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 1-2.
86
Attempt Attempt
Emre Mor takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Clement Bischoff takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Tadic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Brayann Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emre Mor takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kaj Sierhuis scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Dusan Tadic.
78
Update Update
Emre Mor comes on for Sami Ouaissa.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ronald Koeman receives a yellow card.
74
Attempt Attempt
Kaj Sierhuis takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Isaiah Ahmed receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Clement Bischoff takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Update Update
Gabi Caschili is on, and Tyrone Owusu is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Brayann Pereira takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Isak Hansen-Aaroen.
65
Attempt Attempt
Kaj Sierhuis takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Kaj Sierhuis takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Substitution Substitution
Willum Thor Willumsson is substituted off for Noe Lebreton.
64
Update Update
Philippe Sandler comes on for Jamiro Monteiro.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Isaiah Ahmed receives a yellow card.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Isak Hansen-Aaroen.
64
Attempt Attempt
Kaj Sierhuis takes a shot with his head, but it is blocked.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Attempt Attempt
Noe Lebreton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
58
Attempt Attempt
Soufiane Hetli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Brayann Pereira.
55
Update Update
Emirhan Demircan comes on for Rui Jorge Monteiro Mendes.
53
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Tadic's right-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kaj Sierhuis takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Brayann Pereira.
49
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Peersman takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Kaj Sierhuis replaces Darko Nejasmic.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Attempt Attempt
Jelani Seedorf takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Attempt Attempt
Clement Bischoff takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Marvin Peersman takes a shot, but it is blocked.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Update Update
Offside.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rui Jorge Monteiro Mendes scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Patrick Brouwer.
23
Attempt Attempt
Brayann Pereira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Update Update
Offside.
18
Attempt Attempt
Jelani Seedorf takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Soufiane Hetli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Tadic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Patrick Brouwer with his right foot results in a goal.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Allard Lindhout.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Telstar. Structural assessment: Telstar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.