Nashville SC vs Cincinnati preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
GEODIS Park
Major League Soccer
Nashville SCNSH
4 0
CincinnatiCIN
Full Time
Regular Season
Sam Surridge - 43'
Hany Mukhtar - 53'
Bryan Acosta - 89'
Ahmed Qasem - 90+6'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Nashville SC hosted Cincinnati in a match that concluded with a 4-0 victory for the home side. The halftime score stood at 1-0. Nashville SC controlled 52 percent of possession while Cincinnati held 48 percent. Expected goals favored Nashville SC at 2.1 against Cincinnati's 1.31 for a differential of 0.79. No red cards were issued to either team. The stronger team according to pre-match indicators was Nashville SC which also emerged as the winner. The outcome proved consistent with the expected goals data and showed significant deviation from baseline projections for the home side. The result aligned with market expectations in terms of directional outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Nashville SC 4-0 Cincinnati. Nashville SC showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with the xG values of 2.1 to 1.31.
  • Market alignment: The result direction matched the indicated market alignment status.
  • xG expectations: Nashville SC posted 2.1 xG while Cincinnati posted 1.31 xG.
  • Event impact: No second half adjustments or major events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the final scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Villarreal
A. Villarreal
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
K. Nesbitt
K. Nesbitt
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Blas
D. Blas
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Vazquez
R. Vazquez
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Nashville SC B. Callaghan II
B. Callaghan II
VS
Cincinnati P. Noonan
P. Noonan
2.37
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Columbus Crew Rank: 64 W
New York RB Rank: 59 W
Inter Miami Rank: 77 W
DC United Rank: 55 D
Orlando City Rank: 65 L
CF Montréal Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Seattle Sounders Rank: 64 D
New York City Rank: 67 W
Orlando City Rank: 65 D
SJ Earthquakes Rank: 63 W
Columbus Crew Rank: 65 L
Vancouver Whitecaps Rank: 74 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.47
68.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nashville SC
Cincinnati
Power Score
73.47
68.91
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
178
293

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nashville SC — Opponent-weighted form score
Cincinnati — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nashville SC Cincinnati

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nashville SC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cincinnati

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nashville SC
vs
Cincinnati
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nashville SC Cincinnati
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
4%
22%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.09 vs -0.29
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nashville SC Cincinnati
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
22%
4%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.29 vs -0.09
Nashville SC
Cincinnati
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nashville SC
vs
Cincinnati
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nashville SC Cincinnati
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nashville SC 0.00
Cincinnati 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nashville SC Cincinnati
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nashville SC 0.00
Cincinnati 0.00
Nashville SC
Cincinnati
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NSH had peak pressure around 102'.
  • NSH started the game with stronger pressure.
NSH Pressure CIN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NSH reached the top pressure at 102' (81.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nashville SC NSH Home
4 matches
Cincinnati CIN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-30T00:36:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
GEODIS Park
Capacity
30000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Armando Villarreal
Katie Nesbitt
Diego Blas
Rubiel Vazquez

Statistics

Possession
NSH
52%
CIN
48%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 5
5 Shots 5
56 Dangerous attacks 33
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 14
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 7
6 Substitutions 6
13 Throwins 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1
23 Dribble Attempts 12
16 Successful Dribbles 4
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33

Attacking

79 Attacks 85
1 Big Chances Missed 5

Possession

48 Long Passes 58
399 Passes 372
352 Successful Passes 324
88 Successful Passes Percentage 87
16 Key Passes 11
31 Successful Long Passes 41
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 71

Defensive

6 Saves 4
14 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 6
48 Duels Won 39

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 16
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

4 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Armando Villarreal

Starting XI ▼

99
Brian Schwake
Brian Schwake Goalkeeper
7.04
3
Maxwell Woledzi
Maxwell Woledzi Defender
7.1
4
Jeison Palacios
Jeison Palacios Defender
7.18
27
Reed Baker-Whiting
Reed Baker-Whiting Defender
6.65
31
Marcos Painter
Marcos Painter Defender
6.96
2
Daniel Lovitz
Daniel Lovitz
Defender87'
6.72
7
Cristian Espinoza
Cristian Espinoza Midfielder
7.39
14
Shak Mohammed
Shak Mohammed
Midfielder87'
6.87
8
Patrick Yazbek
Patrick Yazbek Midfielder
7.03
16
Matthew Corcoran
Matthew Corcoran
Midfielder62'
6.89
11
Elias Saad
Elias Saad Midfielder
6.88
19
Alex Muyl
Alex Muyl
Midfielder90+4'
6.56
20
Edvard Tagseth
Edvard Tagseth Midfielder
6.94
6
Bryan Acosta
Bryan Acosta
Midfielder87'
6.99
9
Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge Attacker
7.2
10
Hany Mukhtar
Hany Mukhtar (C) Attacker
7.28
37
Ahmed Qasem
Ahmed Qasem
Attacker90+5'
6.59
Referee : Armando Villarreal

Starting XI ▼

18
Roman Celentano
Roman Celentano Goalkeeper
6.9
11
Samuel Gidi
Samuel Gidi Defender
6.75
24
Kyle Smith
Kyle Smith
Defender66'
6.43
12
Miles Robinson
Miles Robinson Defender
6.71
21
Matt Miazga
Matt Miazga Defender
6.48
5
Obinna Nwobodo
Obinna Nwobodo Midfielder
6.7
29
Bryan Ramírez
Bryan Ramírez
Defender46'
6.97
20
Pavel Bucha
Pavel Bucha Midfielder
7
22
Gerardo Valenzuela
Gerardo Valenzuela Midfielder
6.89
16
Tom Barlow
Tom Barlow
Attacker73'
6.79
66
Ender Echenique
Ender Echenique Midfielder
6.87
2
Alvas Powell
Alvas Powell
Defender87'
5.78
9
Kévin Denkey
Kévin Denkey Attacker
7.12
10
Evander
Evander (C) Attacker
8.02
27
Tah Anunga
Tah Anunga
Midfielder90+1'
6.6
17
Kenji Mboma Dem
Kenji Mboma Dem Attacker
6.93
99
Ayoub Jabbari
Ayoub Jabbari
Attacker46'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ahmed Qasem
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+6'
Event
Ahmed Qasem → Hany Mukhtar
12th Substitution
90+5'
Event
Alex Muyl → Elias Saad
11th Substitution
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Tah Anunga → Evander
10th Substitution
Event
Bryan Acosta
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
89'
89'
Event
Bryan Ramírez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Bryan Acosta → Edvard Tagseth
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Daniel Lovitz → Marcos Painter
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Shak Mohammed → Cristian Espinoza
8th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Alvas Powell → Ender Echenique
9th Substitution
Event
Edvard Tagseth
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
79'
73'
Event
Tom Barlow → Gerardo Valenzuela
5th Substitution
Event
Jeison Palacios
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
66'
Event
Kyle Smith → Samuel Gidi
4th Substitution
Event
Matthew Corcoran → Patrick Yazbek
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Hany Mukhtar
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
Event
Marcos Painter
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Ayoub Jabbari → Kenji Mboma Dem
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Bryan Ramírez → Obinna Nwobodo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Obinna Nwobodo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Sam Surridge
Header / 1st Goal
43'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ayoub Jabbari takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Qasem takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Ahmed Qasem scores with a left-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ahmed Qasem scores, making it 4-0, assisted by Reed Baker Whiting.
90
Update Update
Ahmed Qasem is on, and Hany Mukhtar is off.
90
Update Update
Alex Muyl replaces Elias Saad.
90
Substitution Substitution
Brian Anunga Tah is substituted off for Evander da Silva Ferreira.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bryan Acosta scores with a right-footed shot.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bryan Acosta scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Hany Mukhtar.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Bryan Ramirez.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Attempt Attempt
Ayoub Jabbari's header is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
87
Update Update
Alvas Powell comes on for Ender Echenique.
87
Update Update
Daniel Lovitz comes on for Andy Najar.
87
Update Update
Bryan Acosta comes on for Edvard Tagseth.
87
Update Update
Shak Mohammed is on, and Cristian Espinoza is off.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Edvard Tagseth.
79
Attempt Attempt
Ender Echenique takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Ramirez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Offside.
73
Update Update
Tom Barlow is on, and Gerardo Valenzuela is off.
71
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Attempt Attempt
Ayoub Jabbari's right-footed shot is saved.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ayoub Jabbari takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jeisson Andres Palacios Murillo.
69
Attempt Attempt
Andy Najar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
On comes Kyle Smith, off goes Samuel Gidi.
63
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Attempt Attempt
Elias Saad takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
62
Update Update
On comes Matthew Corcoran, off goes Patrick Yazbek.
61
Update Update
Offside.
61
Update Update
Offside.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Ayoub Jabbari's right-footed shot is saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Ahoueke Steeve Kevin Denkey takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
57
Update Update
Offside.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Hany Mukhtar scores with a left-footed shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hany Mukhtar scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Elias Saad.
51
Update Update
Offside.
51
Attempt Attempt
Gerardo Valenzuela takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andy Najar receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Ayoub Jabbari comes on for Kenji Mboma.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Bryan Ramirez comes on for Obinna Nwobodo.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Obinna Nwobodo.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Sam Surridge takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sam Surridge scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Cristian Espinoza.
40
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar's right-footed shot is blocked.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jeisson Andres Palacios Murillo attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Attempt Attempt
Patrick Yazbek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
28
Attempt Attempt
Sam Surridge takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Attempt Attempt
Elias Saad takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Evander da Silva Ferreira takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
6
Update Update
Jeisson Andres Palacios Murillo attempts a header, but it is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Update Update
Offside.
3
Attempt Attempt
Andy Najar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Elias Saad takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Espinoza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Armando Villarreal.

CONCLUSION

The 4-0 result reflected Nashville SC's ability to convert opportunities beyond the xG baseline while maintaining defensive structure against Cincinnati. Possession remained nearly even yet the home side generated the clearer chances throughout both halves. The absence of red cards allowed both teams to complete their tactical setups without numerical disadvantage. Alignment between expected goals and actual outcome indicates the scoreline captured the underlying performance levels accurately. Significant deviation noted for Nashville SC highlights an overperformance relative to typical outputs but stayed within the bounds of observed variance. Overall the match demonstrated efficient finishing from the winners paired with limited creation from the visitors. This produced a clean sheet and comfortable margin without reliance on external factors.