Nashville SC vs Atlanta United preview

United States flag 2026 Major League Soccer, United States
GEODIS Park Sat, 18 Jul - 12:10 AM
Major League Soccer
Nashville SCNSH
1 0
Atlanta UnitedATL
Full Time Sat, 18 Jul 12:10 AM
Regular Season
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Nashville SC secured a 1-0 victory over Atlanta United with the decisive goal coming after halftime. The score remained 0-0 at the break. Nashville SC recorded 0.66 xG while Atlanta United posted 1.3 xG for a differential of minus 0.64. Home possession stood at 48 percent against 52 percent for the visitors. No red cards were shown to either side. Nashville SC entered as the stronger team and claimed the win despite the xG figures. The outcome diverged from xG expectations yet matched market alignment with a significant 100 percent deviation attributed to Nashville SC. Efficiency remained in line with projections throughout the fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nashville SC recorded a significant 100 percent deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not consistent with xG values recorded during the match.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved aligned with market expectations for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Atlanta United held higher xG at 1.3 against Nashville SC at 0.66.
  • Event impact: The 0-0 halftime score shaped second half adjustments leading to the 1-0 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and therefore produced no structural distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Dujic
F. Dujic
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Blanchard
C. Blanchard
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Swartzel
J. Swartzel
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Hernandez
L. Hernandez
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Nashville SC B. Callaghan II
B. Callaghan II
VS
Atlanta United G. Martino
G. Martino
2.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.79
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
New York City Rank: 66 W
Los Angeles FC Rank: 71 W
New England Rank: 60 W
DC United Rank: 55 D
Philadelphia Union Rank: 61 D
Charlotte Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Columbus Crew Rank: 65 L
Orlando City Rank: 63 D
LA Galaxy Rank: 61 L
CF Montréal Rank: 57 W
Toronto Rank: 57 W
New England Rank: 60 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.61
54.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nashville SC
Atlanta United
Power Score
71.61
54.44
League Position
1
14
Global Rank
202
702

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nashville SC — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlanta United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nashville SC Atlanta United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nashville SC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atlanta United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nashville SC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlanta United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.69
26.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.83
19.69
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nashville SC -0.50 Efficiency Index
vs
Atlanta United +0.50 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nashville SC
Atlanta United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nashville SC
vs
Atlanta United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nashville SC Atlanta United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
45%
25%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.30 vs -0.32
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nashville SC Atlanta United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
25%
45%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.32 vs -0.30
Nashville SC
Atlanta United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nashville SC
vs
Atlanta United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nashville SC Atlanta United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nashville SC 0.28
Atlanta United 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nashville SC Atlanta United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nashville SC 0.00
Atlanta United 0.03
Nashville SC
Atlanta United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATL had peak pressure around 10'.
  • ATL started the game with stronger pressure.
NSH Pressure ATL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATL reached the top pressure at 10' (64.39).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nashville SC NSH Home
5 matches
Atlanta United ATL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
6
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-19T00:00:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 18, 2026, 12:10 AM
Competition
2026 Major League Soccer, United States · Regular Season
Stadium
GEODIS Park
Capacity
30000
Attendance
11500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Filip Dujic
Cameron Blanchard
Jeffrey Swartzel
Lorenzo Hernandez

Statistics

Possession
NSH
48%
ATL
52%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 2
29 Dangerous attacks 39
48 Possession 52
4 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

65 Ball Safe 76
4 Goal Kicks 3
7 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 4
19 Throwins 17
10 Successful Headers 8
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 3
14 Dribble Attempts 14
4 Successful Dribbles 6
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43

Attacking

81 Attacks 104
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

40 Long Passes 50
436 Passes 484
371 Successful Passes 416
85 Successful Passes Percentage 86
6 Key Passes 9
21 Successful Long Passes 19
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

5 Saves 2
19 Tackles 16
4 Interceptions 10
46 Duels Won 39

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 9
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Filip Dujic

Starting XI ▼

99
Brian Schwake
Brian Schwake Goalkeeper
8.04
2
Daniel Lovitz
Daniel Lovitz Defender
6.97
3
Maxwell Woledzi
Maxwell Woledzi Defender
7.07
5
Jack Maher
Jack Maher Defender
6.82
4
Jeison Palacios
Jeison Palacios
Defender73'
6.81
22
Josh Bauer
Josh Bauer Defender
6.63
31
Andy Nájar
Andy Nájar
Defender63'
6.76
14
Shakur Mohammed
Shakur Mohammed Midfielder
7.41
16
Matthew Corcoran
Matthew Corcoran Midfielder
6.94
20
Edvard Tagseth
Edvard Tagseth Midfielder
6.97
6
Bryan Acosta
Bryan Acosta
Midfielder63'
6.59
37
Ahmed Qasem
Ahmed Qasem Midfielder
6.74
19
Alex Muyl
Alex Muyl
Midfielder73'
6.9
9
Sam Surridge
Sam Surridge Attacker
6.67
10
Hany Mukhtar
Hany Mukhtar (C) Attacker
7.07
Referee : Filip Dujic

Starting XI ▼

1
Lucas Hoyos
Lucas Hoyos Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Elías Báez
Elías Báez Defender
6.32
4
Enea Mihaj
Enea Mihaj Defender
7.15
47
Matthew Edwards
Matthew Edwards Defender
6.44
2
Ronald Hernández
Ronald Hernández
Defender62'
6.67
55
Tomás Jacob
Tomás Jacob Defender
7.02
8
Tristan Muyumba
Tristan Muyumba Midfielder
6.8
35
Ajani Fortune
Ajani Fortune Midfielder
6.73
28
Will Reilly
Will Reilly
Midfielder11'
6.64
48
Cooper Sanchez
Cooper Sanchez Midfielder
6.56
9
Emmanuel Latte Lath
Emmanuel Latte Lath
Attacker83'
6.4
10
Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón (C) Attacker
7.73
20
Luke Brennan
Luke Brennan Attacker
6.4
22
Fafà Picault
Fafà Picault
Attacker83'
6.43
59
Aleksey Miranchuk
Aleksey Miranchuk Attacker
7.35

Events

2ND-HALF
90+10'
Event
Enea Mihaj
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Shak Mohammed
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
85'
83'
Event
Emmanuel Latte Lath → Cooper Sanchez
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Fafà Picault → Luke Brennan
8th Substitution
Event
Shak Mohammed
Header / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Alex Muyl → Ahmed Qasem
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Jeison Palacios → Jack Maher
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Bryan Acosta → Edvard Tagseth
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Andy Nájar → Josh Bauer
4th Substitution
63'
62'
Event
Ronald Hernández → Matthew Edwards
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
11'
Event
Will Reilly → Ajani Fortune
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card.
90
Substitution Substitution
Jordan Knight is substituted for Shak Mohammed.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andy Najar takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Emmanuel Latte Lath takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Shak Mohammed.
83
Update Update
Emmanuel Latte Lath is on, and Cooper Sanchez is off.
83
Update Update
Pabrice Picault is on, and Luke Brennan is off.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Shak Mohammed Head Shot Goal
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
73
Update Update
Jeisson Andres Palacios Murillo comes on for Jack Maher.
73
Substitution Substitution
Alex Muyl is substituted on for Ahmed Qasem.
71
Update Update
Offside.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Attempt Attempt
Hany Mukhtar takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Qasem takes a left-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Aleksey Miranchuk takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Update Update
Andy Najar comes on for Josh Bauer.
63
Update Update
Bryan Acosta comes on for Edvard Tagseth.
63
Attempt Attempt
Josh Bauer attempts a header but misses the shot.
62
Update Update
William Reilly is on, and Matthew Edwards is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Attempt Attempt
Enea Mihaj's header is saved.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
Attempt Attempt
Luke Brennan takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Luke Brennan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Angel Almiron Rejala takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ahmed Qasem takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Enea Mihaj takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Jacob takes a header shot, but it misses the target.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
42
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Muyumba takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Muyumba takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Daniel Lovitz Head Shot Missed
11
Substitution Substitution
William Reilly is substituted for Ajani Fortune.
8
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Angel Almiron Rejala takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Angel Almiron Rejala takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Filip Dujic.

CONCLUSION

Nashville SC claimed the three points through a narrow 1-0 margin that defied their lower xG total of 0.66. Atlanta United created more expected opportunities yet failed to convert them into goals. Possession edges favored the visitors at 52 percent but yielded no reward on the scoreboard. The absence of red cards kept both sides at full strength for the full ninety minutes. Halftime equality at 0-0 set the stage for a single second half goal that decided the contest. Significant deviation by the home side produced the win while efficiency stayed consistent with prior benchmarks. The result highlighted how actual outcomes can separate from underlying metrics in tightly contested matches.