Nacional vs Vitória Guimarães preview

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio da Madeira Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Liga Portugal
Nacional CDN
Vitória Guimarães VSC
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nacional hosts Vitória Guimarães at Estádio da Madeira in a Liga Portugal regular season fixture during the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side occupies 14th place, trailing the 7th-placed visitors who demonstrate clear superiority with a power score of 71.31 against Nacional's 63.99, translating to a 7.3-point advantage. Form metrics further highlight Vitória's edge at 20.17 compared to 16.17 for the hosts. Lacking details on recent outings, the preview emphasizes Vitória's stronger league standing and overall potency. Set piece analysis reveals low-confidence proxies without xG data, limiting insights into dead-ball threats for both teams. Nacional seeks home comfort to counter the visitors' structural dominance in this mid-table battle.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Vitória Guimarães holds a structural upper hand, sitting 7th in the league versus Nacional's 14th position.
  • Form: Vitória Guimarães shows better recent form with a score of 20.17 over Nacional's 16.17.
  • Squad: Away team boasts superior squad power rating of 71.31 against home side's 63.99.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains unavailable for both Nacional and Vitória Guimarães.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics not provided in available fixture analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies without xG data for either team.
  • xVariable: xG variables absent due to disabled add-on and proxy reliance.
  • Market: Nacional 52% (Δ-1.3%) | Draw 25.9% (Δ+0%) | Vitória Guimarães 22% (Δ+1.3%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nacional T. Carvalho Margarido
T. Carvalho Margarido
VS
Vitória Guimarães G. Moreira Lameiras
G. Moreira Lameiras
0.86
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Santa Clara Rank: 67 L
AVS Rank: 56 L
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Alverca Rank: 66 W
Benfica Rank: 87 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Casa Pia Rank: 62 L
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Gil Vicente Rank: 69 W
AVS Rank: 60 D
Tondela Rank: 62 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 7 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nacional
52.03%
Draw
25.93%
Away Vitória Guimarães
22.04%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nacional
-1.3%
Draw
0%
Vitória Guimarães
+1.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.99
71.31
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nacional
Vitória Guimarães
Power Score
63.99
71.31
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
367
180

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nacional — Opponent-weighted form score
Vitória Guimarães — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nacional Vitória Guimarães

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nacional CDN Home
29 matches
Vitória Guimarães VSC Away
Match Record
11
Wins
11
7
Draws
7
11
Losses
11
Goals
36
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
36
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T01:03:59+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
May 17, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio da Madeira
Capacity
5132
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

37
Lucas Oliveira de França
Lucas Oliveira de França Goalkeeper
12
Cesar Augusto de Oliveira Prado
Cesar Augusto de Oliveira Prado Goalkeeper
1
Kaique Pereira Azarias
Kaique Pereira Azarias Goalkeeper
50
Kevyn Vinícius Medeiros de Freitas
Kevyn Vinícius Medeiros de Freitas Goalkeeper
24
Lenny Vallier
Lenny Vallier Defender
2
João Miguel Coimbra Aurélio
João Miguel Coimbra Aurélio Defender
14
Ivanildo Jorge Mendes Fernandes
Ivanildo Jorge Mendes Fernandes Defender
5
José Manuel Mendes Gomes
José Manuel Mendes Gomes Defender
34
Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos
Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos Defender
4
Ulisses Wilson Jeronymo Rocha
Ulisses Wilson Jeronymo Rocha Defender
38
José Vitor Lima Cardoso
José Vitor Lima Cardoso Defender
16
Alan Herminio Núñez Duarte
Alan Herminio Núñez Duarte Defender
33
Francisco Adriano Baptista Gonçalves
Francisco Adriano Baptista Gonçalves Defender
18
André Alexandre Carreira Sousa
André Alexandre Carreira Sousa Midfielder
20
João Tiago Serrão Garcês
João Tiago Serrão Garcês Midfielder
22
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares
Filipe Miguel Barros Soares Midfielder
8
Miguel Baeza Pérez
Miguel Baeza Pérez Midfielder
28
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira
Igor Matheus Liziero Pereira Midfielder
15
Chiheb Abidi
Chiheb Abidi Midfielder
6
Matheus dos Santos Dias
Matheus dos Santos Dias Midfielder
10
Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior
Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior Midfielder
26
Joel Filipe Organista da Silva
Joel Filipe Organista da Silva Midfielder
88
Deivison Souza Brito
Deivison Souza Brito Midfielder
19
Lucas Eduardo Santos João
Lucas Eduardo Santos João Attacker
7
Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo
Witiness Chimoio Joao Quembo Attacker
9
Jesús Andrés Ramírez Díaz
Jesús Andrés Ramírez Díaz Attacker
11
Paulo Henrique Pereira da Silva
Paulo Henrique Pereira da Silva Attacker
27
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza
Gabriel Veron Fonseca de Souza Attacker
30
Martim Gustavo Silva Watts Rodrigues
Martim Gustavo Silva Watts Rodrigues Attacker
99
Pablo Ruan Messias Cardozo
Pablo Ruan Messias Cardozo Attacker

Squad ▼

27
Charles Marcelo da Silva
Charles Marcelo da Silva Goalkeeper
25
Juan Diego Castillo Reyes
Juan Diego Castillo Reyes Goalkeeper
91
José Guilherme Ribeiro
José Guilherme Ribeiro Goalkeeper
26
Rodrigo Abascal Barros
Rodrigo Abascal Barros Defender
17
Orest Lebedenko
Orest Lebedenko Defender
3
Miguel Raimundo Nóbrega
Miguel Raimundo Nóbrega Defender
4
Oscar Rivas Viondi
Oscar Rivas Viondi Defender
13
João Miguel Teixeira Mendes
João Miguel Teixeira Mendes Defender
2
Miguel Ângelo Gomes Ferreira Magalhães
Miguel Ângelo Gomes Ferreira Magalhães Defender
28
Thiago Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho
Thiago Balieiro Lourenço de Carvalho Defender
66
Tony Strata
Tony Strata Defender
20
Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva Midfielder
16
Benedito Mambuene Mukendi
Benedito Mambuene Mukendi Midfielder
30
Gonçalo Teixeira Nogueira
Gonçalo Teixeira Nogueira Midfielder
6
Matija Mitrovic
Matija Mitrovic Midfielder
23
Diogo Lobão Sousa
Diogo Lobão Sousa Midfielder
7
Nélson Miguel Castro Oliveira
Nélson Miguel Castro Oliveira Attacker
22
Fabio Blanco Gomez
Fabio Blanco Gomez Attacker
18
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo
Telmo Emanuel Gomes Arcanjo Attacker
90
Alioune Ndoye
Alioune Ndoye Attacker
11
Gustavo da Silva Cunha
Gustavo da Silva Cunha Attacker
88
João Miguel Costa Nogueira
João Miguel Costa Nogueira Attacker
19
Oumar Camara
Oumar Camara Attacker
48
Noah Jose Saviolo
Noah Jose Saviolo Attacker

CONCLUSION

Vitória Guimarães approaches this Estádio da Madeira clash with momentum from higher form and power scores, challenging Nacional's home efforts. The 7.3-point edge underscores visitor quality amid sparse efficiency and set-piece details. Hosts in 14th must rally defensively while leveraging familiarity, but 7th-placed foes promise control. Data voids spotlight execution in transitions and open play. Overall, Vitória's advantages position them to dictate terms in a fixture blending resilience and ambition.