NAC Breda vs Ajax preview

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Rat Verlegh Stadion Sat, 25 Apr - 6:00 PM
Eredivisie
NAC BredaNAC
0 2
AjaxAJA
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 6:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Oscar Gloukh - 20'
Mika Godts - 41'

CONTEXT

NAC Breda hosted Ajax in a competitive Eredivisie clash, ending in a 0-2 defeat for the home side. Ajax took control early, scoring both goals in the first half to lead 0-2 at halftime, a margin they preserved through a resilient second half. Despite NAC Breda's 57% possession advantage over Ajax's 43%, the visitors demonstrated superior clinical finishing. No red cards disrupted play, and Ajax, preseason favorites as the stronger team, delivered a performance marked by a significant 53.6% structural deviation in their favor. The result reflects Ajax's ability to outperform despite less ball control, with efficiency remaining in line with norms. This victory underscores Ajax's tactical discipline and counter-attacking prowess against a possession-heavy NAC Breda.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited a significant 53.6% structural deviation favoring Ajax.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards issued, avoiding any dismissal-related distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Inia
P. Inia
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.36
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
R. Honig
R. Honig
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.36
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
M. Vos
M. Vos
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.36
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
Serdar Gozubuyuk
Serdar Gozubuyuk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.36
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.1
NAC Breda C. Hoefkens
C. Hoefkens
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fortuna Sittard Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: D
PEC Zwolle Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Telstar Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
FC Twente Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: L
PEC Zwolle Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 5 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home NAC Breda
28.93%
Draw
24.69%
Away Ajax
46.38%

Movement

Changes since opening
NAC Breda
+28.71%
Draw
+22.77%
Ajax
-51.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.91
28.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NAC Breda
Ajax
Power Score
14.91
28.73
League Position
17
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NAC Breda — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NAC Breda Ajax

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

NAC Breda

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

NAC Breda ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.25
21.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.98
43.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
NAC Breda +2.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Ajax -2.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
NAC Breda
Ajax
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

NAC Breda ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Created Set-piece attacking threat
NAC Breda Ajax
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
NAC Breda Ajax
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
NAC Breda
Ajax
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
NAC Breda
vs
Ajax
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
NAC Breda Ajax
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
NAC Breda 0.29
Ajax 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
NAC Breda Ajax
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
NAC Breda 0.07
Ajax 0.00
NAC Breda
Ajax
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NAC had peak pressure around 78'.
  • AJA started the game with stronger pressure.
NAC Pressure AJA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NAC reached the top pressure at 78' (81.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NAC Breda NAC Home
27 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
2
Wins
20
5
Draws
5
20
Losses
2
Goals
17
Goals Scored
75
75
Goals Conceded
17
-58
Goal Difference
+58
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:07:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Bielica
Poland
99 D. Bielica
D. Odoi
Ghana
3 D. Odoi
F. Oldrup Jensen
Norway
20 F. Oldrup Jensen
C. Leemans
Substitution
Netherlands
8 C. Leemans
B. Kemper
Netherlands
4 B. Kemper
M. Balard
Substitution
Australia
16 M. Balard
K. Sowah
Ghana
14 K. Sowah
R. Paula
Substitution
Germany
11 R. Paula
M. Nassoh
Netherlands
10 M. Nassoh
C. Brym
Substitution
Canada
7 C. Brym
M. Soumano
Substitution
France
9 M. Soumano

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 25, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Capacity
19000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrick Inia
Rogier Honig
Martijn Vos
Serdar Gozubuyuk

Statistics

Possession
NAC
55%
AJA
45%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 1
73 Dangerous attacks 29
57 Possession 43
11 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Goal Kicks 14
11 Goal Attempts 7
69 Ball Safe 77
1 Injuries 2
16 Dribble Attempts 24
8 Successful Headers 14
24 Throwins 13
0 Assists 2
7 Successful Dribbles 13
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54
5 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

119 Attacks 77
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 81
12 Key Passes 7
441 Successful Passes 320
45 Long Passes 50
64 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
29 Successful Long Passes 25
507 Passes 393

Defensive

17 Tackles 26
41 Duels Won 60
4 Saves 3
9 Interceptions 13

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 5
41 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
6 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Serdar Gozubuyuk

Starting XI ▼

99
Daniel Bielica
Daniel Bielica Goalkeeper
6.84
3
Denis Odoi
Denis Odoi Defender
6.63
4
Boy Kemper
Boy Kemper Defender
6.93
8
Clint Leemans
Clint Leemans Defender
6.77
32
Juho Talvitie
Juho Talvitie
Attacker82'
6.67
20
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen Defender
6.72
7
Charles-Andreas Brym
Charles-Andreas Brym Midfielder
6.83
55
Brahim Ghalidi
Brahim Ghalidi
Attacker56'
6.8
10
Mohamed Nassoh
Mohamed Nassoh Midfielder
6.92
11
Raul Paula
Raul Paula Midfielder
6.71
26
Pepijn Reulen
Pepijn Reulen
Attacker56'
6.56
14
Kamal Sowah
Kamal Sowah Midfielder
6.7
16
Max Balard
Max Balard Midfielder
6.71
90
Lewis Holtby
Lewis Holtby
Midfielder71'
6.83
9
Moussa Soumano
Moussa Soumano Attacker
6.83
24
André Ayew
André Ayew
Attacker56'
6.69
Referee : Serdar Gozubuyuk

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
6.92
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
6.78
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
7.15
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
6.77
6
Youri Regeer
Youri Regeer Midfielder
6.96
43
Rayane Bounida
Rayane Bounida
Attacker72'
7.12
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Midfielder
6.95
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur
Midfielder56'
6.84
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
6.8
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
7.56
17
Oliver Edvardsen
Oliver Edvardsen
Attacker82'
6.66
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
7.39
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura
Defender72'
6.94
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker
7.13

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Wout Weghorst
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Juho Talvitie → Clint Leemans
9th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Oliver Edvardsen → Mika Godts
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Ko Itakura
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
72'
Event
Rayane Bounida → Youri Regeer
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Ko Itakura → Steven Berghuis
7th Substitution
Event
Lewis Holtby → Max Balard
5th Substitution
71'
Event
André Ayew → Moussa Soumano
1st Substitution
56'
Event
Brahim Ghalidi → Charles-Andreas Brym
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Pepijn Reulen → Raul Paula
3rd Substitution
56'
56'
Event
Sean Steur → Oscar Gloukh
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Mika Godts
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
20'
Event
Oscar Gloukh
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Rayane Bounida from Ajax hits the woodwork with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kamal Sowah from NAC Breda misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. André Ayew provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Boy Kemper of NAC Breda.
87
Attempt Attempt
André Ayew from NAC Breda misses a left-footed shot from very close range.
85
Update Update
NAC Breda wins a free kick in the attacking half.
84
Corner Corner
Kamal Sowah from NAC Breda misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box, sending it too high after a corner.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
85
Update Update
NAC Breda wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
Oliver Edvardsen of Ajax is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Rio Hillen comes on for Clint Leemans.
84
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Anton Gaaei concedes.
81
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Nassoh's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Pepijn Reulen.
79
Corner Corner
Mika Godts from Ajax has his right-footed shot from the center of the box saved in the bottom right corner by Daniel Bielica of NAC Breda, with an assist from Sean Steur.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ko Itakura of Ajax receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
78
Update Update
Kamal Sowah of NAC Breda wins a free kick in the defensive half.
82
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Holtby from NAC Breda misses a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right.
88
Attempt Attempt
Brahim Ghalidi's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Holtby from NAC Breda misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right.
76
Update Update
Boy Kemper of NAC Breda wins a free kick on the left wing.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Oliver Edvardsen comes on for Mika Godts.
78
Update Update
Foul by Ko Itakura for Ajax.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Rayane Bounida of Ajax.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Ko Itakura comes on for Steven Berghuis.
71
Corner Corner
André Ayew from NAC Breda misses a header from the center of the box after a corner.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Lewis Holtby comes on for Max Balard.
70
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Maarten Paes concedes.
70
Attempt Attempt
Max Balard's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Boy Kemper provided the assist.
90
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Lucas Rosa concedes.
70
Corner Corner
Kamal Sowah's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Maarten Paes.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Sean Steur of Ajax.
65
Update Update
André Ayew from NAC Breda wins a free kick in the attacking half.
65
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohamed Nassoh of NAC Breda.
64
Update Update
Youri Regeer wins a free kick for Ajax in the attacking half.
66
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
58
Update Update
Foul by Jorthy Mokio of Ajax.
58
Update Update
André Ayew of NAC Breda wins a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Rayane Bounida comes on for Youri Regeer.
58
Update Update
Fredrik Oldrup Jensen of NAC Breda wins a free kick in the defensive half.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Youri Regeer of Ajax.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Brahim Ghalidi comes on for Charles-Andreas Brym.
67
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Pepijn Reulen from NAC Breda heads the ball from very close range after a corner.
56
Attempt Attempt
André Ayew from NAC Breda misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Sean Steur comes on for Oscar Gloukh.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: André Ayew comes on for Moussa Soumano.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Jorthy Mokio's header from the center of the box is saved by Daniel Bielica in the center of the goal, with the assist coming from Steven Berghuis' cross.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for NAC Breda: Pepijn Reulen comes on for Raul Paula.
55
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Anton Gaaei concedes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with NAC Breda losing 0-2 to Ajax.
62
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Maarten Paes of Ajax.
53
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Mohamed Nassoh from NAC Breda has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
54
Corner Corner
Ajax have been awarded a corner after Clint Leemans conceded it.
48
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
48
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Mohamed Nassoh of NAC Breda has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that is blocked.
47
Corner Corner
NAC Breda is awarded a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
47
Corner Corner
Raul Paula's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Maarten Paes. The attempt was assisted by Denis Odoi.
54
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Gloukh's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at NAC Breda 0, Ajax 2.
46
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Youri Regeer concedes it.
45
Update Update
First half ends with NAC Breda trailing Ajax 2-0.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax lead 2-0 as Mika Godts scores with a left-footed shot from close range to the center of the goal, assisted by Wout Weghorst after a fast break.
35
Update Update
Youri Baas from Ajax wins a free kick in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Charles-Andreas Brym of NAC Breda.
35
Update Update
Mika Godts wins a free kick for Ajax in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Moussa Soumano from NAC Breda is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Josip Sutalo of Ajax.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
32
Update Update
Mohamed Nassoh from NAC Breda wins a free kick in the attacking half.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Mohamed Nassoh of NAC Breda.
24
Update Update
Denis Odoi of NAC Breda is caught offside.
17
Attempt Attempt
Max Balard from NAC Breda misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
16
Attempt Attempt
Charles-Andreas Brym from NAC Breda misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box that goes too high.
13
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Boy Kemper from NAC Breda.
9
Attempt Attempt
Charles-Andreas Brym of NAC Breda misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from over 35 yards that goes too high, assisted by Moussa Soumano during a fast break.
10
Corner Corner
Ajax win a corner after Clint Leemans concedes.
9
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lucas Rosa's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
6
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Daniel Bielica of NAC Breda.
5
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
5
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Youri Baas concedes.
6
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst's header from very close range is saved.
3
Update Update
Wout Weghorst of Ajax wins a free kick in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Clint Leemans of NAC Breda.
3
Update Update
Denis Odoi from NAC Breda wins a free kick in the defensive half.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Mika Godts of Ajax.
12
Corner Corner
NAC Breda wins a corner after Anton Gaaei concedes it.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Mika Godts of Ajax.
43
Update Update
Raul Paula of NAC Breda wins a free kick in the defensive half.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucas Rosa of Ajax.
39
Update Update
Mika Godts of Ajax wins a free kick in the defensive half.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Oscar Gloukh of Ajax.
30
Attempt Attempt
Charles-Andreas Brym's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Max Balard provided the assist.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Denis Odoi of NAC Breda.
33
Update Update
Denis Odoi wins a free kick for NAC Breda on the right wing.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax takes the lead 1-0 with Oscar Gloukh scoring from very close range with a right-footed shot.
26
Update Update
Raul Paula from NAC Breda misses the header from outside the box.

CONCLUSION

Ajax's 0-2 win over NAC Breda highlights their efficiency in a match where possession did not dictate the outcome. With both goals in the first half securing a halftime lead, Ajax withstood NAC Breda's pressure despite holding only 43% possession. The significant structural deviation of 53.6% underscores Ajax's overperformance relative to setup. Market alignment confirms the result matched preseason views of Ajax as the stronger side. Absent xG data limits deeper chance analysis, but no red cards or adjustments ensured a clean contest. This result boosts Ajax's momentum while exposing NAC Breda's need for better conversion.