Motherwell vs HJK preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Fir Park Today - 6:30 PM
Europa Conference League
MotherwellMOT
2 0
HJKHJK.
Full Time Today 6:30 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 1
Ibrahim Said - 47', 61'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Motherwell 2–0 HJK. The result saw Motherwell take the points. Motherwell showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motherwell produced a significant deviation by overcoming the stronger HJK side to win 2-0.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with the final 2-0 result across both halves.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded so alignment could not be measured.
  • Market alignment: The 2-0 outcome proved aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG figures left expectations undefined for this fixture.
  • Event impact: Second-half goals delivered the decisive 2-0 margin after a goalless first half.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion affected the 2-0 scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Očenáš
M. Očenáš
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Jekkel
A. Jekkel
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Pacák
T. Pacák
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Kralovic
P. Kralovic
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Motherwell A. Johansson
A. Johansson
VS
HJK J. Rantanen
J. Rantanen
2.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
HJK Rank: D
HB Rank: W
HB Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 72 D
Coleraine Rank: 54 W
Coleraine Rank: 55 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
52.46%
Draw
25.68%
Away HJK
21.86%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motherwell
-44.98%
Draw
+23.77%
HJK
+21.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.36
39.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
HJK
Power Score
34.36
39.26
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
HJK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell HJK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

HJK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HJK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell HJK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell HJK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
HJK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motherwell
vs
HJK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motherwell HJK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motherwell 0.00
HJK 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motherwell HJK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motherwell 0.00
HJK 0.00
Motherwell
HJK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOT had peak pressure around 19'.
  • HJK. started the game with stronger pressure.
MOT Pressure HJK. Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOT reached the top pressure at 19' (54.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
1 matches
HJK HJK. Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-13T18:00:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 13, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 1
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michal Očenáš
Adam Jekkel
Tobiáš Pacák
Peter Kralovic

Statistics

Possession
MOT
54%
HJK.
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
10 Shots 6
65 Dangerous attacks 45
50 Possession 50
3 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
17 Throwins 14

Attacking

82 Attacks 68

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Michal Očenáš

Starting XI ▼

1
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.37
3
Jake Girdwood-Reich
Jake Girdwood-Reich Defender
6.42
5
Martin Moormann
Martin Moormann Defender
6.48
22
John Koutroumbis
John Koutroumbis Defender
6.5
—
John Koutroumbis
65'
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Defender
6.42
8
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.58
11
Alex Lowry
Alex Lowry Midfielder
6.33
23
Ewan Wilson
Ewan Wilson
Defender78'
6.5
12
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Midfielder
6.44
25
Olly Whyte
Olly Whyte
Midfielder59'
6.44
19
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
2
6.56
17
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook Attacker
6.66
77
Willy Vogt
Willy Vogt
Attacker65'
6.5
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Attacker
6.59
27
Mikey Booth
Mikey Booth
Midfielder78'
6.49
Referee : Michal Očenáš

Starting XI ▼

44
Matej Markovic
Matej Markovic Goalkeeper
6.31
5
Amara Nallo
Amara Nallo Defender
6.68
6
Ville Tikkanen
Ville Tikkanen Defender
6.46
3
Till Cissokho
Till Cissokho
Defender68'
6.42
13
Kaius Simojoki
Kaius Simojoki Defender
6.54
14
Leonel Montano
Leonel Montano Defender
6.38
4
Alexander Ring
Alexander Ring Midfielder
6.44
32
Mouhamed Guèye
Mouhamed Guèye
Midfielder75'
6.6
7
Alfie Cicale
Alfie Cicale Midfielder
6.78
—
Alfie Cicale
79'
8
Pyry Mentu
Pyry Mentu Midfielder
6.53
18
Toivo Mero
Toivo Mero Midfielder
6.58
9
Mads Borchers
Mads Borchers Attacker
6.48
17
Martin Kirilov
Martin Kirilov
Midfielder68'
6.56
29
Santeri Haarala
Santeri Haarala Attacker
6.49
20
Teemu Pukki
Teemu Pukki
Attacker68'
6.94

Events

2ND-HALF
79'
Event
Lassi Lappalainen → Alfie Cicale
10th Substitution
Event
Mikey Booth → Tawanda Maswanhise
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Ewan Wilson → Alex Lowry
9th Substitution
78'
75'
Event
Mouhamed Guèye → Alexander Ring 
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Till Cissokho → Ville Tikkanen
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Martin Kirilov → Mads Borchers
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Teemu Pukki → Santeri Haarala
6th Substitution
Event
Jamie Knight-Lebel → John Koutroumbis
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Willy Vogt → Regan Charles-Cook
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Ibrahim Said
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
61'
Event
Olly Whyte → Oscar Priestman
1st Substitution
59'
57'
Event
Alexander Ring 
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ibrahim Said
Field Goal / 1st Goal
47'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Alfie Cicale
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Update Update
Lassi Lappalainen is on, and Alfie Cicale is off.
78
Update Update
Mikey Booth comes on for Tawanda Maswanhise.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Update Update
Mouhamed Gueye comes on for Alex Ring.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Update Update
On comes Martin Kirilov, off goes Mads Borchers.
68
Substitution Substitution
Till Cissokho is substituted for Ville Tikkanen.
68
Update Update
Teemu Pukki is on, and Santeri Haarala is off.
65
Update Update
Jamie Knight-Lebel comes on for Johnny Koutroumbis.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
59
Update Update
Olly Whyte comes on for Oscar Priestman.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Alex Ring.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Michal Ocenas.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Motherwell 2-0 HJK. Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.