Motherwell vs HB preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Fir Park Thu, 23 Jul - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
MotherwellMOT
2 0
HBHB
Full Time Thu, 23 Jul 6:45 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

In the first leg of their knockout tie Motherwell defeated HB by a score of 2-0. The home side led 1-0 at halftime after establishing control through sustained possession that reached 67 percent against the visitors 33 percent. Although HB entered as the stronger team Motherwell produced the winning performance. A significant deviation of 19.5 percent was recorded for Motherwell. The outcome remained aligned with available market indicators while efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns. No expected goals data was supplied and no red cards occurred. The clean sheet and second half addition secured the advantage ahead of the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Motherwell recorded a significant 19.5 percent deviation from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals expectations were recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: The match concluded without major events altering the 2-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to either team in the contest.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Gryckiewicz
P. Gryckiewicz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Boniek
M. Boniek
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Kaszyński
B. Kaszyński
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Raczkowski
P. Raczkowski
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Motherwell A. Johansson
A. Johansson
VS
HB A. Olsen
A. Olsen
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
80.52%
Draw
13.57%
Away HB
5.91%

Movement

Changes since opening
Motherwell
-16.8%
Draw
+11.66%
HB
+5.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.17
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
HB
Power Score
27.17
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
HB — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell HB

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

HB

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HB
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.55
29.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.09
29.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Motherwell +0.04 Efficiency Index
vs
HB -0.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
HB
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Motherwell ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy HB
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Motherwell HB
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Motherwell HB
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Motherwell
HB
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Motherwell
vs
HB
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Motherwell HB
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Motherwell 0.12
HB 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Motherwell HB
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Motherwell 0.00
HB 0.02
Motherwell
HB
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HB had peak pressure around 29'.
  • MOT started the game with stronger pressure.
MOT Pressure HB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HB reached the top pressure at 29' (51.19).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Bartosz Kaszyński
Paweł Raczkowski

Statistics

Possession
MOT
63%
HB
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
8 Shots 4
116 Dangerous attacks 52
67 Possession 33
5 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 6

Match Overview

84 Ball Safe 73
10 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
31 Throwins 14
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

136 Attacks 83

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
1 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

13
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Jake Girdwood-Reich
Jake Girdwood-Reich Defender
6.5
24
Luca Ross
Luca Ross
Attacker68'
6.5
5
Martin Moormann
Martin Moormann Defender
6.69
25
Olly Whyte
Olly Whyte
Midfielder90+3'
23
Ewan Wilson
Ewan Wilson Defender
6.5
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow (C) Midfielder
6.5
8
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.69
12
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Midfielder
6.61
19
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Midfielder
6.5
—
Ibrahim Said
90+3'
20
D. Williams
D. Williams Midfielder
6.5
—
D. Williams
78'
27
Mikey Booth
Mikey Booth Midfielder
6.61
77
Willy Vogt
Willy Vogt Attacker
6.5
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo
Defender68'
6.5
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Bjarti Mørk
Bjarti Mørk Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Per Magnus Steiring
Per Magnus Steiring (C) Defender
6.05
6
Áki Johannesen
Áki Johannesen Defender
6.05
7
Mathias Voss
Mathias Voss Defender
6.05
21
Ejvind Mouritsen
Ejvind Mouritsen
Midfielder86'
11
Ási Dam
Ási Dam Defender
6.05
15
Heri Mohr
Heri Mohr Defender
6.05
24
Silas Joensen
Silas Joensen
Defender73'
6.5
22
Ári Mohr Jónsson
Ári Mohr Jónsson Defender
6.05
4
Hedin Hansen
Hedin Hansen Midfielder
6.27
30
Jógvan Í Lon
Jógvan Í Lon
Defender86'
5
Noah Mneney
Noah Mneney Midfielder
6.27
8
Dan í Soylu
Dan í Soylu Midfielder
6.27
9
Heini Sørensen
Heini Sørensen
Midfielder70'
6.5
23
Jákup Thomsen
Jákup Thomsen Attacker
6.43
25
Storm Pettersen
Storm Pettersen
Attacker70'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Lucas Weir → Ibrahim Said
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Olly Whyte → Martin Moormann
10th Substitution
90+3'
86'
Event
Jógvan Í Lon → Hedin Hansen
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Ejvind Mouritsen → Mathias Voss
8th Substitution
Event
Regan Charles-Cook → D. Williams
6th Substitution
78'
73'
Event
Silas Joensen → Heri Mohr
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Storm Pettersen → Jákup Thomsen
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Heini Sørensen → Dan í Soylu
4th Substitution
Event
Emmanuel Longelo → Willy Vogt
1st Substitution
68'
Event
Luca Ross → Jake Girdwood-Reich
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Lukas Fadinger
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
57'
1ST-HALF
Event
Martin Moormann
Field Goal / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
On comes Olly Whyte, off goes Martin Moormann.
90
Update Update
On Lucas Weir, off Ibrahim Said.
86
Update Update
On comes Ejvind Mouritsen, off goes Voss Mathias.
86
Substitution Substitution
Jogvan Lon is substituted for Hedin Hansen.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Update Update
Regan Charles-Cook is on, and Dylan Williams is off.
73
Update Update
Silas Joensen is on, and Heri Mohr is off.
70
Update Update
On comes Heini Sorensen, off goes Dan i Soylu.
70
Update Update
On Storm Pettersen, off Jakup Thomsen.
68
Update Update
Emmanuel Longelo comes on for Willy Vogt.
68
Update Update
Luca Ross comes on for Jake Girdwood Reich.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lukas Fadinger scores, making it 2-0.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Patryk Gryckiewicz.

CONCLUSION

Motherwell completed a controlled 2-0 win in the opening leg against HB. Possession dominance and a halftime lead of 1-0 allowed the home side to manage the second period effectively and add a further goal. The absence of red cards preserved full squads for both teams while the significant deviation attached to Motherwell highlighted an unexpected outcome relative to pre-match team strength assessments. With no expected goals figures available analysis rests on possession and score progression alone. The result positions Motherwell favorably for the second leg though HB retains the opportunity to respond on home soil in the return fixture.