Motherwell vs Celtic preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Fir Park Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
MotherwellMOT
CelticCEL
KICKOFF : Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Motherwell welcome Celtic to Fir Park in the Premiership's 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 season, a crucial clash between closely ranked sides. Motherwell occupy 4th place domestically, just behind Celtic in 3rd, but the visitors hold a clear edge with a power score of 79.25 against the hosts' 67.28, translating to a 12-point advantage. Celtic's form score stands at an impressive 37.44, dwarfing Motherwell's 17.5, suggesting momentum favors the Hoops. At home, Motherwell will aim to leverage Fir Park's atmosphere, yet Celtic's superior overall strength positions them as the team to beat. Both sides lack recent outing details, but league standings reflect tight competition. Set-piece data remains limited due to unavailable xG metrics, with low confidence proxies used. This matchup pits resilience against dominance in Scotland's top flight.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Celtic possess a 12-point power advantage with 79.25 versus Motherwell's 67.28.
  • Form: Celtic's form score of 37.44 significantly outpaces Motherwell's 17.5.
  • Squad: Motherwell rank 4th and Celtic 3rd in the domestic Premiership table.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not available in current analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece performance data shows low confidence with proxies used and no xG available.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable due to data limitations.
  • Market: Motherwell 21.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.9% (Δ+0%) | Celtic 55.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: 75 D
Falkirk Rank: 64 L
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hearts Rank: 75 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
St. Mirren Rank: 56 W
Dundee Rank: 60 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 11 - 54
54
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Motherwell
21.55%
Draw
22.94%
Away Celtic
55.5%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.28
79.25
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Motherwell
Celtic
Power Score
67.28
79.25
League Position
4
3
Global Rank
273
67

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Motherwell Celtic

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 70 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Motherwell MOT Home
70 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
5
Wins
54
11
Draws
11
54
Losses
5
Goals
53
Goals Scored
174
174
Goals Conceded
53
-121
Goal Difference
+121
Expected Goals
0.54
xG
2.09
2.09
xGA
0.54

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:05:48+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Ward
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
2 S. O'Donnell
L. Gordon
4 L. Gordon
S. Welsh
57 S. Welsh
M. Emmanuel
45 M. Emmanuel
O. Priestman
25 O. Priestman
E. Watt
20 E. Watt
T. Maswanhise
18 T. Maswanhise
C. Slattery
8 C. Slattery
I. Sa’id
90 I. Sa’id
E. Just
21 E. Just

General Information

Date & Time
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Fir Park
Capacity
13742
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
John Beaton
David McGeachie
Jonathan Bell
Colin Steven

Expected Lineup

Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.08
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Centre Forward
7.14
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Right Back
6.85
4
Liam Gordon
Liam Gordon Right Back
6.78
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Attacking Midfield
7.12
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Right Wing
7.01
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Defensive Midfield
7.38
25
Oscar Priestman
Oscar Priestman Defensive Midfield
6.75
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Left Back
6.86
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Left Back
6.95
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said Left Wing
6.77
Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

12
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
6.67
38
Daizen Maeda
Daizen Maeda Centre Forward
6.91
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Right Back
7.18
5
Liam Scales
Liam Scales Left Back
7.08
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor Defensive Midfield
7.11
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Left Back
7.26
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Right Back
6.99
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Attacking Midfield
7.38
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Left Wing
6.99
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan Right Wing
6.75
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels Defensive Midfield
6.93

CONCLUSION

Celtic arrive as the stronger outfit, backed by superior power and form metrics, making them favorites at Fir Park despite Motherwell's solid home standing and nearby league position. The 12-point power gap underscores Celtic's edge in quality, while their form dominance hints at clinical execution. Motherwell must disrupt early to challenge, relying on defensive solidity amid limited set-piece insights. Expect Celtic to control possession and exploit transitions, though the hosts' grit could keep it competitive. Overall, the visitors' attributes tilt the balance toward a positive result for them in this Premiership encounter.