Mornar vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion SRC Topolica Thu, 16 Jul - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
MornarMRN
1 2
Atlètic Club d'EscaldesATL
Full Time Thu, 16 Jul 6:45 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Jovan Dasic - 20'
Goal
|
Goal
David Valero - 90' (P), 90+3' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Mornar 1–2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes. The result saw Atlètic Club d'Escaldes take the points. Atlètic Club d'Escaldes showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 49%–51%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Mornar 1-2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes. Atlètic Club d'Escaldes showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the observed performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was available to determine alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data was not provided for this encounter.
  • Event impact: The second half goals by the away team proved decisive in overturning the halftime deficit.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals affected the game's flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Jones
A. Jones
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Beckett
D. Beckett
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Bird
I. Bird
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Markham-Jones
B. Markham-Jones
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Mornar V. Stešević
V. Stešević
VS
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes X. Andrés Ibarra
X. Andrés Ibarra
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mornar Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mornar
59.23%
Draw
24.04%
Away Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
16.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mornar
+58.28%
Draw
+17.68%
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
-75.96%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mornar
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mornar — Opponent-weighted form score
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mornar Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mornar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Atlètic Club d'Escaldes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mornar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.59
20.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.20
49.59
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mornar +2.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes -2.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mornar
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mornar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mornar Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mornar Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mornar
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mornar
vs
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mornar Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mornar 0.23
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mornar Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mornar 0.04
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 0.01
Mornar
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ATL had peak pressure around 67'.
  • MRN started the game with stronger pressure.
MRN Pressure ATL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ATL reached the top pressure at 67' (66.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mornar MRN Home
1 matches
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes ATL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:03:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadion SRC Topolica
Capacity
2625
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aaron Wyn Jones
Daniel Beckett
Ian Bird
Bryn Markham-Jones

Statistics

Possession
MRN
56%
ATL
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
8 Shots 1
86 Dangerous attacks 46
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 1
8 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

106 Ball Safe 113
0 Penalties 2
20 Goal Attempts 8
3 Substitutions 4
21 Throwins 18
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

144 Attacks 101

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
15 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Aaron Wyn Jones

Starting XI ▼

24
Benjamin Krijestarac
Benjamin Krijestarac Goalkeeper
5.88
6
Ilija Martinović
Ilija Martinović Defender
6.05
15
Jovan Baošić
Jovan Baošić Defender
6.05
33
Nikola Stijepović
Nikola Stijepović Defender
6.05
4
Andrija Kaluđerović
Andrija Kaluđerović (C) Midfielder
6.5
23
Balša Dubljević
Balša Dubljević
Midfielder72'
6.27
7
Stefan Denković
Stefan Denković Midfielder
6.45
21
Matija Rovčanin
Matija Rovčanin
Midfielder63'
6.27
10
Demir Skrijelj
Demir Skrijelj Midfielder
6.27
11
Yann Michael Yao
Yann Michael Yao Midfielder
6.27
17
Jovan Dasic
Jovan Dasic Midfielder
6.47
18
Darko Zoric
Darko Zoric Midfielder
6.61
19
Nikola Vujnović
Nikola Vujnović
Attacker72'
6.43
97
Petar Vukčević
Petar Vukčević Midfielder
6.23
Referee : Aaron Wyn Jones

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrià Muñoz
Adrià Muñoz Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Marcos Blasco
Marcos Blasco Defender
6.25
5
Chinchu Defender
15
Sergio Rodríguez
Sergio Rodríguez Defender
6.26
49
Adrià Gallego
Adrià Gallego Defender
6.26
6
Emanoel
Emanoel Midfielder
6.37
7
Juan Barragan Midfielder
10
Gemelson Vieira
Gemelson Vieira (C) Midfielder
6.33
11
David Valero
David Valero Midfielder
2
6.56
19
Diego Fernandes Antunes
Diego Fernandes Antunes
Goalkeeper90+5'
14
Hamza Ryahi
Hamza Ryahi Midfielder
6.37
8
Jean Luc Assoubre
Jean Luc Assoubre
Midfielder46'
6.45
17
Sohaib Boulayoune
Sohaib Boulayoune Midfielder
6.37
20
Jota
Jota
Attacker79'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Diego Fernandes Antunes → David Valero
7th Substitution
90+3'
Event
David Valero
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
90'
Event
David Valero
Penalty / 1st Penalty
79'
Event
Jota → Sohaib Boulayoune
6th Substitution
Event
Balša Dubljević → Andrija Kaluđerović
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Nikola Vujnović → Darko Zoric
5th Substitution
72'
68'
Event
Borja Morales → Juan Barragan
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Jean Luc Assoubre
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Petar Vukčević
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Matija Rovčanin → Stefan Denković
2nd Substitution
63'
50'
Event
Marcos Blasco
Persistent fouling / 3rd Yellowcard
50'
Event
6th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Jean Luc Assoubre → Hamza Ryahi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Gemelson Vieira
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Stefan Denković
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Jovan Dasic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
20'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Diego Fernandes Antunes comes on for David Valero.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! David Valero scores, bringing the tally to 1-2.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! David Valero scores, making it 1-1.
79
Update Update
On comes Jota, off goes Sohaib Boulayoune.
72
Update Update
Balsa Dubljevic is on, and Andrija Kaluderovic is off.
72
Update Update
Nikola Vujnovic comes on for Darko Zoric.
68
Update Update
Borja Morales Osuna comes on for Juan Barragan.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
63
Update Update
Matija Rovcanin comes on for Stefan Denkovic.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
46
Update Update
On Jean Luc Gbayara Assoubre, off Hamza Ryahi Bouharma.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stefan Denkovic receives a yellow card.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jovan Dasic scores to make it 1-0.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Aaron Wyn Jones.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Mornar 1-2 Atlètic Club d'Escaldes. Structural assessment: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.