Molde vs Vålerenga preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 12:30 PM
Eliteserien
MoldeMOL
5 1
VålerengaVIF
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 6 Regular Season
Fredrik Gulbrandsen - 21', 55'
Emil Breivik - 51'
Eirik Hestad - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Lucas Haren - 45+1'

CONTEXT

Molde secured a convincing 5-1 victory over Vålerenga in a match that saw them level at 1-1 at halftime before pulling away decisively in the second half. As the stronger team, Molde controlled 58% of possession and capitalized on their superiority without facing any red card disruptions. The game remained competitive early on, with both sides scoring once before the break, but Molde's structural edge became evident post-interval, leading to four additional goals. Vålerenga managed only 42% possession and struggled to convert limited chances. No significant second-half tactical adjustments were noted, and the outcome aligned with pre-match expectations given Molde's minimal 2.4% deviation. Expected goals data was unavailable, preventing deeper efficiency analysis, but the final score reflected Molde's dominance throughout. This result underscores Molde's home strength against a resilient yet outmatched Vålerenga side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Molde showed minimal 2.4% structural deviation in line with their stronger team status.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No impactful events like red cards occurred to alter the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Valstadsve
J. Valstadsve
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Knutsen
J. Knutsen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
T. Halsen
T. Halsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
C. Moen
C. Moen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
Vålerenga G. Bakke
G. Bakke
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: D
HamKam Rank: W
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Viking Rank: L
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lillestrøm Rank: L
Fredrikstad Rank: D
Viking Rank: L
Rosenborg Rank: W
Sandefjord Rank: W
Viking Rank: L
22
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
22 - 5 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
97.6%
Draw
1.91%
Away Vålerenga
0.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.16
21.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Vålerenga
Power Score
25.16
21.98
League Position
4
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Vålerenga

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.33
27.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.98
32.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde +0.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Vålerenga -0.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Vålerenga
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vålerenga
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde Vålerenga
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde Vålerenga
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Vålerenga
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Molde
vs
Vålerenga
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Molde Vålerenga
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Molde 0.49
Vålerenga 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Molde Vålerenga
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Molde 0.03
Vålerenga 0.14
Molde
Vålerenga
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOL had peak pressure around 59'.
  • MOL started the game with stronger pressure.
MOL Pressure VIF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOL reached the top pressure at 59' (79.87).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde MOL Home
38 matches
Vålerenga VIF Away
Match Record
22
Wins
11
5
Draws
5
11
Losses
22
Goals
76
Goals Scored
46
46
Goals Conceded
76
+30
Goal Difference
-30
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:03:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium
Aker Stadion
Capacity
11249
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Jon-Michael Knutsen
Torgeir Halsen
Christian Moen

Statistics

Possession
MOL
57%
VIF
43%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 2
35 Dangerous attacks 35
58 Possession 42
2 Corners 5
7 Free kicks 6
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

7 Goal Kicks 17
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
24 Dribble Attempts 23
22 Throwins 21
112 Ball Safe 80
4 Assists 1
9 Successful Dribbles 11
15 Goal Attempts 7
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

63 Attacks 54
3 Counter Attacks 0
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

560 Passes 411
13 Key Passes 7
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
50 Long Passes 49
88 Successful Passes Percentage 81
494 Successful Passes 331
25 Successful Long Passes 23

Defensive

19 Tackles 21
47 Duels Won 42
8 Interceptions 4
6 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 2
20 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

6 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Christian Moen

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
7.09
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
7.25
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.16
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
6.5
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
6.98
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
6.92
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder80'
6.63
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Midfielder
7.64
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Attacker89'
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
6.82
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Midfielder
6.82
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen
Midfielder63'
6.74
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Midfielder
6.6
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty
Attacker89'
6.72
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Attacker
2
6.63
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai
Attacker63'
6.85
Referee : Christian Moen

Starting XI ▼

1
Oscar Hedvall
Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper
7.14
2
Kolbeinn Finnsson
Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender
7.23
3
Hakon Sjatil
Hakon Sjatil Defender
6.8
15
Odin Holm
Odin Holm
Midfielder69'
6.42
4
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender
7.04
37
Ivan Näsberg
Ivan Näsberg Defender
7.17
5
Kevin Tshiembe
Kevin Tshiembe
Defender89'
10
Carl Lange
Carl Lange Midfielder
6.97
11
Elias Sørensen
Elias Sørensen Midfielder
6.62
24
Petter Strand
Petter Strand
Midfielder46'
6.56
28
Magnus Westergaard
Magnus Westergaard Midfielder
7.15
77
Lucas Haren
Lucas Haren Midfielder
6.6
6
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad
Defender88'
6.52
8
Henrik Bjørdal
Henrik Bjørdal Attacker
7.19
17
M. Grundetjern
M. Grundetjern Attacker
6.93
9
Gabriel Rajkovic
Gabriel Rajkovic
Attacker69'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Trent Kone Doherty → Sondre Granaas
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter → Emil Breivik
9th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Kevin Tshiembe → Ivan Näsberg
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Vegar Eggen Hedenstad → Lucas Haren
7th Substitution
Event
Sondre Granaas
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
86'
Event
Viktor Bender  → Eirik Hestad
6th Substitution
80'
69'
Event
Odin Holm → Hakon Sjatil
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Gabriel Rajkovic → M. Grundetjern
5th Substitution
Event
Jacob Christensen → Mats Møller Dæhli
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Jalal Abdullai → Fredrik Gulbrandsen
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Eirik Hestad
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
57'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
55'
Event
Emil Breivik
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
51'
48'
Event
Hakon Sjatil
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Petter Strand → Elias Sørensen
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Lucas Haren
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

CONCLUSION

Molde's 5-1 triumph over Vålerenga highlighted their superior structure and control, transforming a 1-1 halftime stalemate into a rout. With 58% possession and no disciplinary interruptions, they efficiently exploited Vålerenga's defensive lapses in the second half. The minimal deviation and market alignment confirm the result matched the stronger team's profile. Absent xG metrics limit granular insights, but possession dominance and goal output suggest clinical finishing. Vålerenga's resilience faded post-break, unable to counter Molde's momentum. This performance reinforces Molde's standing, while exposing Vålerenga's vulnerabilities against top opposition.