Molde vs Sandefjord preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sat, 30 May - 2:00 PM
Eliteserien
Molde Molde
Sandefjord Sandefjord
KICKOFF : Sat, 30 May - 2:00 PM
Round 11 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Molde welcomes Sandefjord to Aker Stadion for a regular season Eliteserien clash in 2026. The home side carries a modest power advantage of 3.7 points and is listed as the stronger team overall. League positions place Molde fifth and Sandefjord seventh domestically, suggesting a tightly contested mid-table battle. Form scores favor Molde at 25.61 against the visitors 15.22, indicating better recent momentum for the hosts. Both clubs operate without detailed last-outing records or form logs in the current dataset. Set-piece metrics carry low confidence and rely on proxy values, limiting deeper insight into that phase. The fixture unfolds under standard league conditions with no knockout implications or aggregate considerations. Power differentials and positional proximity frame expectations for a measured encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Molde holds a 3.7-point power advantage and is designated the stronger side at home.
  • Form: Molde posts a form score of 25.61 while Sandefjord sits at 15.22.
  • Squad: Molde occupies fifth place and Sandefjord seventh in the domestic standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not supplied in the current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece figures show low confidence and rely on proxy values for both sides.
  • xVariable: Molde records a power score of 65.19 against Sandefjord 61.45.
  • Market: Baseline split: Molde 58.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22% (Δ+0%) | Sandefjord 19.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
Sandefjord A. Tegström
A. Tegström
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.55
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 59 L
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Vålerenga Rank: 58 W
Start Rank: 51 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredrikstad Rank: 61 D
Lillestrøm Rank: 57 L
Kristiansund Rank: 57 W
Aalesund Rank: 45 W
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
Rosenborg Rank: 60 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 5 - 9
9
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
58.7%
Draw
22.03%
Away Sandefjord
19.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.19
61.45
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Sandefjord
Power Score
65.19
61.45
League Position
5
7
Global Rank
327
435

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Sandefjord — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Sandefjord

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home
24 matches
Sandefjord Sandefjord Away
Match Record
10
Wins
9
5
Draws
5
9
Losses
10
Goals
52
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
52
+11
Goal Difference
-11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-29T00:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Posiadała
22 A. Posiadała
H. Østervold Stenevik
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
B. Risa
33 B. Risa
M. Linnes
25 M. Linnes
V. Hoff
15 V. Hoff
M. Møller Dæhli
17 M. Møller Dæhli
E. Hestad
5 E. Hestad
E. Breivik
10 E. Breivik
S. Granaas
23 S. Granaas
F. Gulbrandsen
8 F. Gulbrandsen
E. Hadaya
30 E. Hadaya
V. Walle Egeli
3 V. Walle Egeli
X. Lambrix
44 X. Lambrix
Z. Smajlovic
2 Z. Smajlovic
F. Pedersen
4 F. Pedersen
J. Vester Nielsen
37 J. Vester Nielsen
M. Melchior
20 M. Melchior
S. Mørk
6 S. Mørk
R. Kristensen Alte
10 R. Kristensen Alte
N. Moller
11 N. Moller
E. Patoulidis
7 E. Patoulidis

General Information

Date & Time
May 30, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 11 · Regular Season
Stadium
Aker Stadion
Capacity
11249
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jørgen Haugen
Torgeir Halsen
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Jim André Alnes Dyb

Expected Lineup

Referee : Jørgen Haugen

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
7.18
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Centre Forward
6.89
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Attacking Midfield
7.35
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Defensive Midfield
6.99
17
Mats Møller Dæhli
Mats Møller Dæhli Defensive Midfield
6.99
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Left Wing
6.93
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes Left Back
6.76
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Right Back
7.04
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Left Back
7
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Right Back
7.49
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Right Wing
7.07
Referee : Jørgen Haugen

Starting XI ▼

30
Elias Hadaya
Elias Hadaya Goalkeeper
7.08
11
Nikolaj Möller
Nikolaj Möller Centre Forward
6.8
10
Ruben Alte
Ruben Alte Attacker
6.89
7
Evangelos Patoulidis
Evangelos Patoulidis Attacker
7.22
2
Zinedin Smajlović
Zinedin Smajlović Right Back
7.29
3
Vetle Walle Egeli
Vetle Walle Egeli Left Back
6.79
4
Fredrik Carson Pedersen
Fredrik Carson Pedersen Right Back
6.62
6
Sander Risan Mørk
Sander Risan Mørk Central Midfield
7.01
20
Marcus Melchior
Marcus Melchior Central Midfield
6.82
37
Jakob Vester
Jakob Vester Central Midfield
6.88
44
Xander Lambrix
Xander Lambrix Left Back
6.92

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Molde holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Molde a 3.7-point edge. External projection is Molde 58.7%, draw 22%, and Sandefjord 19.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.