Molde vs Rosenborg preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sat, 14 Mar - 5:00 PM
Eliteserien
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:00 PM
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Molde 2–0 Rosenborg. The result saw Molde take the points. Molde showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Molde showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Hansen
T. Hansen
Referee 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
Rosenborg A. Johansson
A. Johansson
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.09
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 L
Brann Rank: 69 W
Haugesund Rank: 42 W
Rosenborg Rank: 64 W
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 82 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strømsgodset Rank: 49 W
Tromsø Rank: 66 L
Vålerenga Rank: 60 W
Molde Rank: 64 L
Sandefjord Rank: 62 D
Brann Rank: 69 L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 8 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
50.57%
Draw
24.93%
Away Rosenborg
24.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.46
62.2
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Rosenborg
Power Score
64.46
62.2
League Position
3
15
Global Rank
318
389

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Molde Opponent-weighted form score
Rosenborg Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Rosenborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Rosenborg

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rosenborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.24
26.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.05
25.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde -0.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Rosenborg +0.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Rosenborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde
vs
Rosenborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde Rosenborg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde Rosenborg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
Molde
Rosenborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde MOL Home
10 matches
Rosenborg RBK Away
Match Record
4
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
18
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:28:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Stadium
Aker Stadion
Capacity
11249
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Tore Hansen

Statistics

Possession
MOL
59%
RBK
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
10 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 38
62 Possession 38
5 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

2 Assists 0
15 Throwins 28
75 Ball Safe 73
12 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 3
9 Dribble Attempts 20
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
6 Goal Kicks 13
5 Successful Dribbles 5

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
131 Attacks 90

Possession

563 Passes 349
82 Successful Passes Percentage 75
464 Successful Passes 261
10 Key Passes 5
16 Successful Long Passes 27
56 Long Passes 60
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45

Defensive

31 Tackles 10
1 Saves 2
9 Interceptions 13

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
18 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI

1
Mads Kikkenborg
Mads Kikkenborg Goalkeeper
6.7
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
7.99
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
7.73
6
Isak Helstad Amundsen
26
Samukelo Kabini
Samukelo Kabini Defender
7.23
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
7.09
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
7.62
24
Trent Kone Doherty
7.1
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery Midfielder
7.4
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
6.75
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
7.02
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
7.06
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder76'
6.64
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Attacker
8.06
20
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Attacker
7.09
19
Eirik Haugan
Eirik Haugan
Defender90+2'
Referee : Tore Hansen

Starting XI

1
Leopold Wahlstedt
Leopold Wahlstedt Goalkeeper
6.39
3
Tobias Solheim Dahl
6.64
4
Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
6.66
25
Johan Johanessen Bakke
6.41
5
Håkon Volden
Håkon Volden Defender
6.83
16
Aslak Witry
Aslak Witry Defender
6.48
17
Mads Bomholt
Mads Bomholt Midfielder
6.45
22
Jonas Svensson
Jonas Svensson (C) Midfielder
6.77
8
Iver Fossum
Iver Fossum
Midfielder77'
6.58
29
David Duris
David Duris Midfielder
6.16
19
Adrian Pereira
Adrian Pereira
Defender60'
6.21
35
Emil Konradsen Ceide
6.32
9
Dino Islamovic
Dino Islamovic Attacker
5.93
18
Amin Chiakha
Amin Chiakha Attacker
6.12

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Isak Helstad Amundsen Halldor Stenevik
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Eirik Haugan Kristian Eriksen
7th Substitution
90+2'
77'
Event
Johan Johanessen Bakke Mikkel Konradsen Ceide
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Iver Fossum Jonas Svensson
6th Substitution
Event
Viktor Bender  Vebjørn Hoff
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Trent Kone Doherty Eirik Hestad
4th Substitution
76'
73'
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
Event
6th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Adrian Pereira David Duris
2nd Substitution
Event
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen Caleb Zady Sery
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
31'
5'
Event
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Molde exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.