Molde vs Brann preview

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Sat, 18 Jul - 4:00 PM
Eliteserien
MoldeMOL
1 2
BrannSKB
Full Time Sat, 18 Jul 4:00 PM
Round 14 Regular Season
S. Diop - 88'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Molde 1–2 Brann. The result saw Brann take the points. Brann showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Molde 1.3 – 0.7 Brann. Possession was 47%–53%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Molde 1-2 Brann. Brann showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with observed performance patterns.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was not consistent with expected goals distribution.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Molde posted 1.33 expected goals against Brann's 0.65.
  • Event impact: Brann's two first-half goals shaped the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to distort game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Lien
M. Lien
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Valstadsve
J. Valstadsve
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Haglund
K. Haglund
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Haarberg
B. Haarberg
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Molde S. Tjelmeland
S. Tjelmeland
VS
Brann E. Horneland
E. Horneland
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aalesund Rank: 47 D
Sandefjord Rank: 62 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 63 L
Kristiansund Rank: 56 W
Tromsø Rank: 71 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Start Rank: 52 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 63 L
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 L
Aalesund Rank: 47 L
KFUM Rank: 58 W
Fredrikstad Rank: 61 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.18
69.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Brann
Power Score
66.18
69.5
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
340
251

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Brann — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Brann

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brann

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.55
19.53
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.53
37.55
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde +1.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Brann -1.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Brann
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde
vs
Brann
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde Brann
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
24%
28%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.32 vs -0.18
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde Brann
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
28%
24%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.18 vs -0.32
Molde
Brann
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Molde
vs
Brann
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Molde Brann
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Molde 0.28
Brann 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Molde Brann
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Molde 0.04
Brann 0.02
Molde
Brann
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MOL had peak pressure around 67'.
  • SKB started the game with stronger pressure.
MOL Pressure SKB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MOL reached the top pressure at 67' (95.32).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde MOL Home
4 matches
Brann SKB Away
Match Record
4
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
4
Goals
12
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
12
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-19T00:02:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 18, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 14 · Regular Season
Stadium
Aker Stadion
Capacity
11249
Attendance
8863
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marius Lien
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Kim Haglund
Bendik Haarberg

Statistics

Possession
MOL
49%
SKB
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 3
53 Dangerous attacks 47
47 Possession 53
6 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 91
2 Goal Kicks 11
11 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
30 Throwins 20
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Injuries 1
26 Dribble Attempts 14
9 Successful Dribbles 4
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29

Attacking

121 Attacks 105
2 Big Chances Missed 0
2 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

57 Long Passes 58
502 Passes 578
420 Successful Passes 487
84 Successful Passes Percentage 84
9 Key Passes 6
35 Successful Long Passes 27
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

0 Saves 2
21 Tackles 28
16 Interceptions 10
50 Duels Won 52

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 10
6 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
13 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

22
Albert Posiadala
Albert Posiadala Goalkeeper
6.17
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
6.81
6
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Isak Helstad Amundsen Defender
5.97
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa
Defender46'
6.95
8
Mathias Løvik
Mathias Løvik Defender
6.44
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder76'
6.57
26
Samukele Kabini
Samukele Kabini Defender
6.77
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
7.54
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik (C) Midfielder
7.69
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
6.34
30
Daniel Daga
Daniel Daga
Midfielder35'
6.61
21
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
Oskar Spiten-Nysæter Midfielder
6.31
29
S. Diop
S. Diop
Attacker46'
6.98
23
Sondre Granaas
Sondre Granaas Midfielder
7.26
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai Attacker
6.39
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty
Attacker82'
6.48
Referee : Marius Lien

Starting XI ▼

1
Mathias Dyngeland
Mathias Dyngeland Goalkeeper
6.79
3
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen (C) Defender
7.04
17
Joachim Soltvedt
Joachim Soltvedt Defender
7.59
21
Denzel De Roeve
Denzel De Roeve Defender
7.5
20
V. Dragsnes
V. Dragsnes
Defender63'
6.26
23
Thore Pedersen
Thore Pedersen Defender
6.71
8
Felix Horn Myhre
Felix Horn Myhre Midfielder
6.79
16
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen Midfielder
7.32
25
Niklas Jensen Wassberg
Niklas Jensen Wassberg Midfielder
6.82
11
Bård Finne
Bård Finne
Attacker83'
6.55
10
K. Ingason
K. Ingason Attacker
6.6
9
Niklas Castro
Niklas Castro
Attacker63'
6.45
14
Ulrik Mathisen
Ulrik Mathisen Attacker
7.34
22
Sævar Atli Magnússon
Sævar Atli Magnússon
Attacker69'
6.73
29
Noah Holm
Noah Holm Attacker
6.43
18
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Midfielder63'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
S. Diop
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
88'
Event
Viktor Bender
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
83'
83'
Event
Bård Finne → Niklas Jensen Wassberg
10th Substitution
Event
Trent Kone Doherty → Jalal Abdullai
9th Substitution
82'
Event
S. Hansen
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Viktor Bender → Mathias Løvik
8th Substitution
76'
69'
Event
Sævar Atli Magnússon → Ulrik Mathisen
7th Substitution
63'
Event
Niklas Castro → K. Ingason
4th Substitution
63'
Event
V. Dragsnes → Denzel De Roeve
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Jacob Lungi Sørensen → Noah Holm
6th Substitution
54'
Event
Kristian Eriksen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
S. Diop → Oskar Spiten-Nysæter
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Birk Risa → Isak Helstad Amundsen
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mathias Løvik
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+2'
Event
Daniel Daga → Vebjørn Hoff
1st Substitution
35'
35'
Event
Kristian Eriksen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Samukele Kabini
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
8'
Event
Denzel De Roeve
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Molde 1-2 Brann. Structural assessment: Brann exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.