ML Vitebsk vs Universitatea Craiova preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Wed, 8 Jul - 5:00 PM
Champions League
ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk
1 4
Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova
Full Time Wed, 8 Jul 5:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Valeriy Gromyko - 20'
Goal
|
Goal
Ștefan Baiaram - 4'
Assad Al-Hamlawi - 24' (P), 44' (P)
Steven Nsimba - 90+4'

CONTEXT

ML Vitebsk hosted Universitatea Craiova in the first leg of their two-legged tie. The home side took an early lead but trailed 1-3 at halftime after conceding three goals before the break. Universitatea Craiova maintained control in the second half and added one more goal to secure a 4-1 victory on the night. ML Vitebsk finished with 42 percent possession while the visitors held 58 percent. No red cards were shown to either team during the match. Despite being labeled the stronger side beforehand, ML Vitebsk could not prevent the away side from claiming a comprehensive win. The result leaves Universitatea Craiova in a strong position heading into the return leg.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: ML Vitebsk 1-4 Universitatea Craiova. Universitatea Craiova showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections throughout the contest.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: No xG metrics were recorded to evaluate expectations.
  • Event impact: Key events led to a decisive away victory without major disruptions.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Bilbija
L. Bilbija
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. Tešanović
S. Tešanović
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Perić
M. Perić
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Tomić
A. Tomić
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
ML Vitebsk I. Ryabov
I. Ryabov
VS
Universitatea Craiova F. Amaral Rino Coelho
F. Amaral Rino Coelho
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home ML Vitebsk
0.77%
Draw
1.91%
Away Universitatea Craiova
97.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
ML Vitebsk
Universitatea Craiova
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
ML Vitebsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Universitatea Craiova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) ML Vitebsk Universitatea Craiova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

ML Vitebsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Universitatea Craiova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

ML Vitebsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Universitatea Craiova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.95
28.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.36
25.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
ML Vitebsk — Efficiency Index
vs
Universitatea Craiova — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
ML Vitebsk
Universitatea Craiova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

ML Vitebsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Universitatea Craiova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
ML Vitebsk Universitatea Craiova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 2.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
ML Vitebsk Universitatea Craiova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
2.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
ML Vitebsk
Universitatea Craiova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
ML Vitebsk
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
ML Vitebsk Universitatea Craiova
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
ML Vitebsk 0.14
Universitatea Craiova 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
ML Vitebsk Universitatea Craiova
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
ML Vitebsk 0.06
Universitatea Craiova 0.02
ML Vitebsk
Universitatea Craiova
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ML Vitebsk had peak pressure around 82'.
  • Universitatea Craiova started the game with stronger pressure.
ML Vitebsk Pressure Universitatea Craiova Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ML Vitebsk reached the top pressure at 82' (69.08).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk Home
0 matches
Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:53:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
P. Pavlyuchenko
Belarus
1 P. Pavlyuchenko
Y. Skibskiy
Belarus
22 Y. Skibskiy
Z. Volkov
Belarus
20 (C) Z. Volkov
K. Gomanov
Belarus
6 K. Gomanov
I. Moskalenchik
Substitution
Belarus
45 I. Moskalenchik
V. Gromyko
Substitution
Belarus
55 V. Gromyko
V. Bocherov
Substitution
Belarus
15 V. Bocherov
A. Mesarović
Serbia
27 A. Mesarović
A. Kontsevoy
Belarus
80 A. Kontsevoy
B. Diabate
Substitution
Mali
9 B. Diabate
R. Bosić
Serbia
12 R. Bosić
I. Popescu
Romania
21 I. Popescu
A. Rus
Romania
28 A. Rus
N. Stevanović
Serbia
24 N. Stevanović
O. Romanchuk
Substitution
Ukraine
3 O. Romanchuk
N. Bancu
Romania
11 (C) N. Bancu
A. Mekvabishvili
Substitution
Georgia
5 A. Mekvabishvili
A. Cicâldău
Romania
20 A. Cicâldău
S. Pereira Nunes Silva
Substitution
Portugal
23 S. Pereira Nunes Silva
Ș. Baiaram
Substitution
Romania
10 Ș. Baiaram
A. Al Hamlawi
Substitution
Palestine
9 A. Al Hamlawi
M. Etim
Nigeria
12 M. Etim

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 08, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
,
Capacity
N/A
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luka Bilbija
Stefan Tešanović
Marko Perić
Antonio Tomić

Statistics

Possession
ML Vitebsk
46%
Universitatea Craiova
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
5 Shots 5
58 Dangerous attacks 69
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 9
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

80 Ball Safe 82
0 Penalties 2
3 Goal Attempts 10
4 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 23
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

96 Attacks 101

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Luka Bilbija

Starting XI ▼

1
Pavel Pavlyuchenko
Pavel Pavlyuchenko Goalkeeper
5.38
6
Kirill Gomanov
Kirill Gomanov Defender
5.7
20
Zakhar Volkov
Zakhar Volkov (C) Defender
5.69
45
Ilya Moskalenchik
Ilya Moskalenchik Defender
5.88
23
Sergey Balanovich
Sergey Balanovich
Midfielder84'
6.37
12
Radivoj Bosic
Radivoj Bosic Midfielder
6.09
15
Valeriy Bocherov
Valeriy Bocherov Midfielder
6.28
8
Silas Gnaka
Silas Gnaka
Midfielder63'
6.37
22
Yan Skibskiy
Yan Skibskiy Midfielder
6.09
27
Aleksandar Mesarovic
Aleksandar Mesarovic Midfielder
6.09
55
Valeriy Gromyko
Valeriy Gromyko Midfielder
6.33
10
Denilho Cleonise
Denilho Cleonise
Midfielder72'
6.37
80
Artem Kontsevoy
Artem Kontsevoy Midfielder
6.09
9
Bassekou Diabaté
Bassekou Diabaté Attacker
6.38
11
Shamar Nicholson
Shamar Nicholson
Attacker63'
6.46
Referee : Luka Bilbija

Starting XI ▼

21
Laurențiu Popescu
Laurențiu Popescu Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Oleksandr Romanchuk
Oleksandr Romanchuk Defender
6.37
4
Alexandru Crețu
Alexandru Crețu
Midfielder77'
6.5
24
Nikola Stevanovic
Nikola Stevanovic Defender
6.26
28
Adrian Rus
Adrian Rus Defender
6.26
5
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Anzor Mekvabishvili Midfielder
6.37
8
Tudor Băluță
Tudor Băluță
Midfielder66'
6.5
11
Nicușor Bancu
Nicușor Bancu (C) Midfielder
6.37
20
Alexandru Cicâldău
Alexandru Cicâldău Midfielder
6.37
23
Samuel Teles
Samuel Teles Midfielder
6.37
17
Carlos Mora
Carlos Mora
Midfielder66'
6.5
9
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Assad Al-Hamlawi Attacker
2
6.77
7
Steven Nsimba
Steven Nsimba
Attacker57'
6.83
10
Ștefan Baiaram
Ștefan Baiaram Attacker
6.82
19
Heri Tavares
Heri Tavares
Attacker77'
6.5
12
Monday Etim
Monday Etim Attacker
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Steven Nsimba
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Zakhar Volkov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Sergey Balanovich  → Ilya Moskalenchik
9th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
Steven Nsimba
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Alexandru Crețu → Oleksandr Romanchuk
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Heri Tavares → Ștefan Baiaram
8th Substitution
Event
Denilho Cleonise → Valeriy Gromyko
6th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Tudor Băluță → Anzor Mekvabishvili
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Carlos Mora → Samuel Teles
5th Substitution
Event
Silas Gnaka → Valeriy Bocherov
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Shamar Nicholson → Bassekou Diabaté
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Valeriy Bocherov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
57'
Event
Steven Nsimba → Assad Al-Hamlawi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
Event
Valeriy Gromyko
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'
24'
Event
Assad Al-Hamlawi
Penalty / 1st Penalty
Event
Valeriy Gromyko
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
20'
4'
Event
Ștefan Baiaram
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Sergey Balanovich comes on for Ilya Moskalenchik.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Steven Nsimba.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Update Update
Heriberto Tavares comes on for Stefan Baiaram.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alexandru Cretu comes on for Oleksandr Romanchuk.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
77
Update Update
Denilho Cleonise comes on for Valeriy Gromyko.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-4.
74
Update Update
Cristian Baluta is on, and Anzor Mekvabishvili is off.
72
Update Update
Juan Carlos Morales comes on for Samuel Teles Pereira Nunes Silva.
66
Update Update
Shamar Nicholson comes on for Bassekou Diabate.
66
Update Update
Shamar Nicholson is on, and Valeriy Bocherov is off.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Valeriy Bocherov.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-3.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Steven Nsimba comes on for Assad Al Hamlawi.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-3.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Assad Al Hamlawi scores, bringing the tally to 1 for his team and 3 for the opponents.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
24
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Assad Al Hamlawi scores, bringing the tally to 1-2.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valeriy Gromyko scores, making it 1-1.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stefan Baiaram scores, making it 1-0.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Luka Bilbija.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: ML Vitebsk 1-4 Universitatea Craiova. Structural assessment: Universitatea Craiova exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.