ML Vitebsk vs Sutjeska preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadyen DYuSSh-1
Europa Conference League
ML VitebskML Vitebsk
3 0
SutjeskaSUT
Full Time
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Goal
|

CONTEXT

ML Vitebsk hosted Sutjeska in the first leg of a two-legged tie and secured a 3-0 victory. The home side led 2-0 at halftime after establishing an early advantage. Possession finished nearly even with ML Vitebsk at 49 percent and Sutjeska at 51 percent. No red cards were issued to either team during the contest. ML Vitebsk entered as the stronger side and delivered a result consistent with that status. The match featured controlled play from the winners who converted opportunities efficiently in both halves. Sutjeska struggled to create meaningful threats despite holding a slight edge in ball possession. The outcome leaves ML Vitebsk in a favorable position heading into the return fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation measured at 3.3 percent and classified as minimal for the stronger side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned with the indicated market direction for the home team.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals figures were recorded for either side in this match.
  • Event impact: The 3-0 scoreline reflected steady performance without major disruptive incidents.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the match outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Muller
J. Muller
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Coelho
R. Coelho
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Santos Leite
J. Santos Leite
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Thomas
L. Thomas
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
ML Vitebsk I. Ryabov
I. Ryabov
VS
Sutjeska M. Pekovic
M. Pekovic
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home ML Vitebsk
96.66%
Draw
1.9%
Away Sutjeska
1.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
ML Vitebsk
Sutjeska
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
ML Vitebsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Sutjeska — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) ML Vitebsk Sutjeska

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

ML Vitebsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sutjeska

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

ML Vitebsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sutjeska
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.37
22.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.16
23.37
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
ML Vitebsk +0.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Sutjeska -0.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
ML Vitebsk
Sutjeska
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

ML Vitebsk ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sutjeska
Created Set-piece attacking threat
ML Vitebsk Sutjeska
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
ML Vitebsk Sutjeska
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
ML Vitebsk
Sutjeska
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
ML Vitebsk
vs
Sutjeska
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
ML Vitebsk Sutjeska
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
ML Vitebsk 0.12
Sutjeska 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
ML Vitebsk Sutjeska
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
ML Vitebsk 0.00
Sutjeska 0.04
ML Vitebsk
Sutjeska
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ML Vitebsk had peak pressure around 23'.
  • SUT started the game with stronger pressure.
ML Vitebsk Pressure SUT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ML Vitebsk reached the top pressure at 23' (86.24).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Stadyen DYuSSh-1
Capacity
250
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jérémy Muller
Rafael Morim Coelho
Johnny Santos Leite
Loïc Thomas

Statistics

Possession
ML Vitebsk
50%
SUT
50%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Shots 7
69 Dangerous attacks 86
49 Possession 51
4 Corners 7
17 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

99 Ball Safe 83
1 Penalties 0
8 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 28

Attacking

117 Attacks 103

Discipline

2 Offsides 4
12 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Jérémy Muller

Starting XI ▼

1
Pavel Pavlyuchenko
Pavel Pavlyuchenko Goalkeeper
6.5
6
Kirill Gomanov
Kirill Gomanov Defender
6.69
20
Zakhar Volkov
Zakhar Volkov Defender
6.5
10
Denilho Cleonise
Denilho Cleonise Midfielder
6.5
9
Bassekou Diabaté
Bassekou Diabaté
Attacker64'
6.86
12
Radivoj Bosic
Radivoj Bosic Midfielder
6.61
5
Milad Mohammadi
Milad Mohammadi
Defender87'
15
Valeriy Bocherov
Valeriy Bocherov Midfielder
6.45
22
Yan Skibskiy
Yan Skibskiy Midfielder
6.45
18
Vladislav Zhuk
Vladislav Zhuk
Midfielder87'
23
Sergey Balanovich
Sergey Balanovich (C) Midfielder
6.5
45
Ilya Moskalenchik
Ilya Moskalenchik
Defender78'
6.5
27
Aleksandar Mesarovic
Aleksandar Mesarovic Midfielder
6.5
55
Valeriy Gromyko
Valeriy Gromyko Midfielder
6.48
8
Silas Gnaka
Silas Gnaka
Midfielder78'
6.5
80
Artem Kontsevoy
Artem Kontsevoy Midfielder
6.61
Referee : Jérémy Muller

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Giljen
Vladan Giljen (C) Goalkeeper
5.68
2
Aleksa Golubović
Aleksa Golubović Defender
6.05
5
Igor Pajovic
Igor Pajovic
Midfielder46'
6.37
4
Milos Vracar
Milos Vracar Defender
5.88
15
Boris Kopitovic
Boris Kopitovic Defender
5.86
72
Anto Babic
Anto Babic Defender
5.88
6
Deni Hocko
Deni Hocko Midfielder
6.18
7
Aleksandar Boljevic
Aleksandar Boljevic Midfielder
6.18
11
Vasilije Cavor
Vasilije Cavor Midfielder
6.27
10
Balsa Toskovic
Balsa Toskovic
Attacker46'
6.46
20
Jovan Cadjenovic
Jovan Cadjenovic Midfielder
6.27
19
Aleksandar Scekic
Aleksandar Scekic
Midfielder46'
6.37
77
Marko Simun
Marko Simun Midfielder
6.18
3
Mamadou Camara
Mamadou Camara
Midfielder90'
55
Slobodan Babic
Slobodan Babic Attacker
6.38
9
Petar Anicic
Petar Anicic
Midfielder78'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Mamadou Camara → Marko Simun
10th Substitution
Event
Milad Mohammadi → Radivoj Bosic
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Vladislav Zhuk → Yan Skibskiy
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Silas Gnaka → Valeriy Gromyko
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Ilya Moskalenchik → Sergey Balanovich 
7th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Petar Anicic → Slobodan Babic
5th Substitution
Event
Bassekou Diabaté
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
65'
Event
Bassekou Diabaté → Denilho Cleonise
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Yan Skibskiy
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
57'
46'
Event
Igor Pajovic → Aleksa Golubović
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Aleksandar Scekic → Jovan Cadjenovic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Balsa Toskovic → Vasilije Cavor
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kirill Gomanov
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
37'
Event
Valeriy Gromyko
Field Goal / 1st Goal
31'
Event
Valeriy Gromyko
Goalkeeper save
31'
30'
Event
Boris Kopitovic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Valeriy Bocherov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Mamadou Camara comes on for Marko Simun.
87
Substitution Substitution
Vladislav Zhuk is substituted for Yan Skibskiy.
87
Update Update
Milad Mohammadi comes on for Radivoj Bosic.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Silas Gnaka comes on for Valeriy Gromyko.
78
Update Update
Petar Anicic replaces Slobodan Babic.
78
Update Update
Petar Anicic replaces Slobodan Babic.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bassekou Diabate scores, making it 3-0.
64
Update Update
Bassekou Diabate comes on for Denilho Cleonise.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Yan Skibskiy.
46
Update Update
Balša Tošković comes on for Vasilije Cavor.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Aleksandar Scekic comes on for Jovan Cadjenovic.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Igor Pajovic comes on for Aleksa Golubovic.
37
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
31
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved! Valeriy Gromyko's attempt is unsuccessful.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Valeriy Bocherov.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jeremy Muller.

CONCLUSION

ML Vitebsk completed a comfortable 3-0 win over Sutjeska in the opening leg. The home team built a 2-0 halftime lead and maintained control after the break to close out the result. Balanced possession figures showed neither side dominated territory yet ML Vitebsk proved more clinical in front of goal. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to play with full complements for the full ninety minutes. The victory positions the winners strongly for the second leg while leaving Sutjeska needing a significant turnaround. Overall the performance highlighted efficient finishing and defensive organization from the home side. Attention now turns to the return fixture where the aggregate score will be decided.