Mjällby vs AIK preview

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Strandvallen Sat, 11 Jul - 1:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Mjällby Mjällby
1 2
AIK AIK
Full Time Sat, 11 Jul 1:00 PM
Round 12 Regular Season
Ali Youssef - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Victor Gonçalves Andersson - 74'
A. Helm - 90'

CONTEXT

Mjällby hosted AIK in a contest that concluded with a 1-2 away victory for the visitors. The sides remained level at 0-0 after the first half. Mjällby recorded 61 percent possession and generated an expected goals total of 3.8 while AIK managed 1.23 expected goals on 39 percent possession. Despite Mjällby being identified as the stronger side the result went to AIK. No red cards were shown to either team. The outcome proved inconsistent with the underlying expected goals metrics yet aligned with pre-match market positioning. A significant deviation was recorded in favor of the away side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AIK produced a significant deviation to claim the 1-2 win.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with observed performance levels.
  • xG alignment: Final result was inconsistent with the 3.8 to 1.23 xG split.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Mjällby created higher expected goals but failed to win.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion was present.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Al Hakim
M. Al Hakim
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Culum
M. Culum
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Klyver
F. Klyver
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Karlsson
P. Karlsson
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Mjällby Karl Marius Aksum
Karl Marius Aksum
VS
AIK J. Riveiro
J. Riveiro
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sirius Rank: 66 D
IFK Göteborg Rank: 55 D
Elfsborg Rank: 58 D
Häcken Rank: 61 L
Degerfors Rank: 47 W
Malmö FF Rank: 64 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
IFK Göteborg Rank: 55 W
Sirius Rank: 67 L
Hammarby Rank: 69 W
Västerås SK Rank: 52 D
Djurgården Rank: 66 L
Elfsborg Rank: 58 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mjällby
0%
Draw
0%
Away AIK
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.79
59.77
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mjällby
AIK
Power Score
68.79
59.77
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
264
531

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mjällby — Opponent-weighted form score
AIK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mjällby AIK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mjällby

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AIK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mjällby ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AIK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.75
21.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.28
49.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mjällby +2.94 Efficiency Index
vs
AIK -2.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mjällby
AIK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mjällby
vs
AIK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mjällby AIK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
42%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-1.58 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mjällby AIK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
42%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -1.58
Mjällby
AIK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mjällby
vs
AIK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mjällby AIK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mjällby 0.40
AIK 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mjällby AIK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mjällby 0.08
AIK 0.01
Mjällby
AIK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Mjällby had peak pressure around 94'.
  • Mjällby started the game with stronger pressure.
Mjällby Pressure AIK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Mjällby reached the top pressure at 94' (96.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mjällby Mjällby Home
4 matches
AIK AIK Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
4
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:57:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
R. Wallinder
Sweden
13 R. Wallinder
T. Miettinen
Substitution
Finland
33 T. Miettinen
A. Norén
Sweden
4 A. Norén
T. Pettersson
Substitution
Sweden
24 T. Pettersson
W. Granath
Sweden
14 W. Granath
J. Gustavsson
Sweden
22 (C) J. Gustavsson
T. Helge
Substitution
Sweden
8 T. Helge
Á. Samuelsen
Faroe Islands
23 Á. Samuelsen
J. Kjaer
Substitution
Denmark
10 J. Kjaer
A. Manneh
Substitution
19 A. Manneh
J. Bergström
Sweden
18 J. Bergström
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
15 (C) K. Nordfeldt
E. Smidesang Edh
Norway
2 E. Smidesang Edh
A. Csongvai
Hungary
33 A. Csongvai
S. Papagiannopoulos
Substitution
Sweden
4 S. Papagiannopoulos
M. Thychosen
Denmark
17 M. Thychosen
D. Beširović
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 D. Beširović
J. Hove
Norway
8 J. Hove
T. Ayari
Sweden
45 T. Ayari
A. Mujanic
Substitution
Sweden
7 A. Mujanic
K. Filling
Substitution
29 K. Filling
A. Kouame
Substitution
Ivory Coast
48 A. Kouame

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 11, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 12 · Regular Season
Stadium
Strandvallen
Capacity
6500
Attendance
5875
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mohammed Al Hakim
Mehmet Culum
Fredrik Klyver
Pontus Karlsson

Statistics

Possession
Mjällby
61%
AIK
39%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 4
14 Shots 4
67 Dangerous attacks 26
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

67 Ball Safe 76
7 Goal Kicks 13
16 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 5
28 Throwins 17
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
9 Dribble Attempts 5
9 Successful Dribbles 5
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

Attacking

131 Attacks 65

Possession

29 Long Passes 19
542 Passes 349
451 Successful Passes 258
83 Successful Passes Percentage 74
17 Key Passes 5

Defensive

1 Saves 6
20 Tackles 22
15 Interceptions 12
57 Duels Won 55

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 3

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

13
Robin Wallinder
Robin Wallinder Goalkeeper
6.16
4
Axel Norén
Axel Norén Defender
7.12
24
Tom Pettersson
Tom Pettersson Defender
6.58
5
Abdullah Iqbal
Abdullah Iqbal
Defender61'
6.88
33
Tony Miettinen
Tony Miettinen Defender
6.34
2
Ludvig Svanberg
Ludvig Svanberg
Defender81'
6.49
8
Teo Helge
Teo Helge Midfielder
6.65
39
Romeo Arrhenius Leandersson
Romeo Arrhenius Leandersson
Midfielder61'
6.42
14
Villiam Granath
Villiam Granath Midfielder
7.08
22
Jesper Gustavsson
Jesper Gustavsson (C) Midfielder
6.59
23
Áki Samuelsen
Áki Samuelsen Midfielder
7.82
10
Jeppe Kjær
Jeppe Kjær Attacker
7.45
25
Max Nielsen
Max Nielsen
Defender69'
6.8
18
Jacob Bergström
Jacob Bergström Attacker
6.42
19
Abdoulie Manneh
Abdoulie Manneh Attacker
7.23
9
Ali Youssef
Ali Youssef
Attacker81'
7.3
Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt (C) Goalkeeper
7.2
2
Eskil Edh
Eskil Edh Defender
6.41
4
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos Defender
6.64
14
Fredrik Nissen
Fredrik Nissen
Defender72'
6.21
17
Mads Thychosen
Mads Thychosen Defender
7.09
33
Áron Csongvai
Áron Csongvai Defender
7.07
7
Amel Mujanic
Amel Mujanic Midfielder
6.47
18
Abdihakim Ali
Abdihakim Ali
Midfielder72'
6.39
8
Johan Hove
Johan Hove Midfielder
6.09
19
Dino Besirovic
Dino Besirovic Midfielder
6.86
37
Ahmad Faqa
Ahmad Faqa
Defender82'
6.36
45
Taha Ayari
Taha Ayari Midfielder
6.87
29
Kevin Filling
Kevin Filling Attacker
7.21
11
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Midfielder67'
7.93
48
Axel Kouame
Axel Kouame Attacker
7.3
22
A. Helm
A. Helm
Attacker82'
7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ali Youssef
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+2'
90'
Event
A. Helm
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Tom Pettersson
3rd Yellowcard
88'
Event
Abdullah Iqbal
4th Yellowcard
88'
82'
Event
A. Helm → Axel Kouame
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Ahmad Faqa → Dino Besirovic
10th Substitution
Event
Ali Youssef → Abdoulie Manneh
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Ludvig Svanberg → Tony Miettinen
8th Substitution
81'
74'
Event
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
72'
Event
Abdihakim Ali → Amel Mujanic
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Fredrik Nissen → Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
6th Substitution
Event
Max Nielsen → Jeppe Kjær
4th Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Victor Gonçalves Andersson → Kevin Filling
3rd Substitution
Event
Abdullah Iqbal → Tom Pettersson
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Romeo Arrhenius Leandersson → Teo Helge
2nd Substitution
61'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jeppe Kjær
2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Teo Helge
1st Yellowcard
28'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Abdullah Iqbal takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Ali Youssef with his right foot results in a goal.
90
Update Update
Abdullah Iqbal's header is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abdullah Iqbal takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal! Ali Youssef takes a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abdullah Iqbal takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot! Ali Youssef scores with a right-footed shot.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Ali Youssef with his right foot results in a goal.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ali Youssef scores, making it 1-2.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ludvig Svanberg's header is saved.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Adrian Helm scores with a left-footed shot.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
83
Update Update
Ahmad Faqa comes on for Dino Besirevic.
82
Update Update
Adrian Helm comes on for Axel Kouame.
81
Update Update
Ludvig Svanberg replaces Tony Miettinen.
80
Update Update
Ali Youssef is on, and Abdoulie Manneh is off.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot on goal by Victor Andersson with a right-footed shot.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Victor Andersson scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Axel Kouame.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Fredrik Nissen comes on for Sotiris Papagiannopoulos.
69
Update Update
Abdihakin Ali comes on for Amel Mujanic.
68
Substitution Substitution
Max Nielsen is substituted for Jeppe Kjaer.
68
Attempt Attempt
Aki Samuelsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Aki Samuelsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Substitution Substitution
Max Nielsen is substituted for Jeppe Kjaer.
65
Attempt Attempt
Aki Samuelsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Update Update
On comes Victor Andersson, off goes Kevin Filling.
65
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
61
Update Update
On comes Romeo Leandersson, off goes Teo Helge.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Abdullah Iqbal comes on for Tom Pettersson.
60
Update Update
On comes Romeo Leandersson, off goes Teo Helge.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom Pettersson receives a yellow card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Villiam Granath takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
55
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh attempts a header but misses the shot.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Attempt Attempt
Aki Samuelsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Kjaer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Bergstrom takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Amel Mujanic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Johan Hove takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Amel Mujanic takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
35
Attempt Attempt
Amel Mujanic attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Jeppe Kjaer.
30
Attempt Attempt
Abdoulie Manneh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Jeppe Kjaer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Teo Helge receives a yellow card.
22
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Filling takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
18
Attempt Attempt
Tony Miettinen takes a header shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Villiam Granath takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Axel Noren takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Teo Helge's right-footed shot is blocked.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mohammed Al-Hakim.

CONCLUSION

The match illustrated how possession dominance and elevated expected goals do not always translate into the final result. Mjällby controlled the majority of the ball and created substantially more quality chances yet conceded the victory to AIK. The halftime score of 0-0 gave little indication of the eventual outcome. Absence of red cards ensured the contest remained balanced in terms of personnel throughout. The significant deviation recorded by the away side underscores the variance possible even when underlying numbers favor one team. Analytical review shows the result diverged from statistical projections while still matching external positioning signals.