Mirassol vs Grêmio preview

Brazil flag 2026 Serie A, Brazil
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Serie A
MirassolMIR
2 1
GrêmioGRE
Full Time
Round 19 Regular Season
Bruno Santos - 16'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Mirassol defeated Grêmio 2-1 at home after leading 2-0 at halftime. The home side converted their opportunities efficiently despite holding only 45 percent possession compared to the visitors 55 percent. Mirassol recorded 1.53 expected goals while Grêmio managed 0.72. The stronger team secured the win in line with pre-match expectations. No red cards were shown to either side and the second half produced no further goals for the visitors. The significant deviation observed in performance metrics highlighted Mirassol's ability to outperform their underlying numbers. The result remained consistent throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mirassol produced a significant deviation from expected patterns as the deviation team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with underlying team metrics throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: Outcome proved consistent with xG as Mirassol recorded 1.53 against 0.72 for Grêmio.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with market expectations for the stronger team Mirassol.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations showed Mirassol at 1.53 and Grêmio at 0.72 for the full match.
  • Event impact: Halftime score of 2-0 shaped the second half without further changes to the 2-1 final.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so no distortion affected the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. Arleu de Araujo
B. Arleu de Araujo
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Alves de Lima Filho
C. Alves de Lima Filho
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Marques Fonseca
T. Marques Fonseca
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Sousa
M. Sousa
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Mirassol R. Silva Guanaes
R. Silva Guanaes
VS
Grêmio L. Ribeiro de Castro
L. Ribeiro de Castro
0.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletico PR Rank: 63 L
Fluminense Rank: 68 W
Atlético Mineiro Rank: 63 L
Chapecoense Rank: 53 D
Corinthians Rank: 66 W
São Paulo Rank: 63 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Corinthians Rank: 66 L
Santos Rank: 63 W
Bahia Rank: 61 D
Flamengo Rank: 75 L
Athletico PR Rank: 63 D
Coritiba Rank: 59 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.54
63.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mirassol
Grêmio
Power Score
64.54
63.26
League Position
19
15
Global Rank
388
427

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mirassol — Opponent-weighted form score
Grêmio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mirassol Grêmio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mirassol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Grêmio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mirassol ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Grêmio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.74
10.83
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.83
21.74
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mirassol +0.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Grêmio -0.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mirassol
Grêmio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mirassol
vs
Grêmio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mirassol Grêmio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
9%
39%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.14 vs -0.28
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mirassol Grêmio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
39%
9%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.28 vs -0.14
Mirassol
Grêmio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mirassol
vs
Grêmio
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mirassol Grêmio
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mirassol 0.45
Grêmio 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mirassol Grêmio
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mirassol 0.00
Grêmio 0.10
Mirassol
Grêmio
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MIR had peak pressure around 11'.
  • MIR started the game with stronger pressure.
MIR Pressure GRE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MIR reached the top pressure at 11' (93.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mirassol MIR Home
2 matches
Grêmio GRE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
5
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-18T00:01:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026 Serie A, Brazil · Round 19 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Carlos Henrique Alves de Lima Filho
Thayse Marques Fonseca
Marcos Sousa

Statistics

Possession
MIR
46%
GRE
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 3
59 Dangerous attacks 38
45 Possession 55
5 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

57 Ball Safe 97
4 Goal Kicks 16
9 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 6
23 Throwins 20
7 Successful Headers 2
2 Assists 0
2 Injuries 1
23 Dribble Attempts 23
14 Successful Dribbles 13
61 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

Attacking

99 Attacks 76
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

37 Long Passes 80
340 Passes 445
273 Successful Passes 371
80 Successful Passes Percentage 83
10 Key Passes 7
16 Successful Long Passes 43
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54

Defensive

3 Saves 1
22 Tackles 20
10 Interceptions 6
58 Duels Won 59

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 13
8 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

22
Walter
Walter Goalkeeper
7.13
6
Reinaldo
Reinaldo Defender
6.85
32
Igor Formiga
Igor Formiga Defender
7.24
34
João Victor
João Victor (C) Defender
6.85
44
Gabriel
Gabriel Defender
6.96
5
Japa
Japa Midfielder
6.56
7
Shaylon
Shaylon
Midfielder76'
8
Denilson
Denilson Midfielder
7.29
10
Chico Kim
Chico Kim
Midfielder83'
21
José Aldo
José Aldo Midfielder
6.55
30
Bruno Santos
Bruno Santos Attacker
7.23
9
André Luis
André Luis
Attacker75'
77
Alesson
Alesson Attacker
6.56
17
Fernandinho
Fernandinho
Attacker83'
95
Edson Carioca
Edson Carioca Attacker
7.34
96
Carlos Eduardo
Carlos Eduardo
Attacker72'
Referee : Bruno Arleu de Araujo

Starting XI ▼

1
Weverton
Weverton Goalkeeper
6.21
4
Walter Kannemann
Walter Kannemann (C) Defender
5.86
6
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins Defender
6.72
7
Cristian Pavón
Cristian Pavón Defender
6.94
38
Caio Paulista
Caio Paulista Defender
6.2
54
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
Defender46'
5
Juan Nardoni
Juan Nardoni Midfielder
6.75
65
Riquelme
Riquelme
Midfielder80'
20
Mathías Villasanti
Mathías Villasanti Midfielder
6.54
33
Leonel Pérez
Leonel Pérez
Midfielder46'
37
Gabriel Mec
Gabriel Mec Midfielder
6.27
22
Martin Braithwaite
Martin Braithwaite
Attacker46'
9
Francis Amuzu
Francis Amuzu Attacker
6.54
10
Willian
Willian
Midfielder46'
21
Tetê
Tetê Attacker
6.36
14
Marcos Rocha
Marcos Rocha
Defender86'
95
Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius Attacker
6.33

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Marcos Rocha → Tetê
11th Substitution
Event
Chico Kim → Denilson
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Fernandinho → Alesson
10th Substitution
83'
80'
Event
Riquelme → Juan Nardoni
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Leonel Pérez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Carlos Vinícius
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Shaylon → Japa
7th Substitution
76'
Event
André Luis → Bruno Santos
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Carlos Eduardo → Edson Carioca
5th Substitution
72'
65'
Event
Gustavo Martins
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Martin Braithwaite → Gabriel Mec
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Pedro Gabriel → Caio Paulista
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Leonel Pérez → Mathías Villasanti 
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Willian → Francis Amuzu
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Walter Kannemann 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Edson Carioca
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
40'
Event
Denilson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
38'
Event
Denilson
Red card cancelled
37'
Event
Bruno Santos
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
16'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
86
Update Update
Marcos Rocha Aquino is on, and Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins is off.
83
Substitution Substitution
Fernando José Marques Maciel is substituted on for Alesson Dos Santos Batista.
83
Update Update
Francisco Hyun Sol Kim replaces Chico, and Denilson Alves Borges is off the field.
80
Update Update
On Bruno Santos, off Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leonel Perez receives a yellow card.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Carlos Vinicius Alves Morais scores, making it 2-1.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
76
Update Update
On Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo, off Joao Wellington Gadelha Melo de Oliveira.
75
Substitution Substitution
Andre Luis Silva de Aguiar is substituted for Bruno Santos.
75
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
On Carlos Eduardo Ferreira de Souza, off Edson Guilherme Mendes dos Santos.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Gustavo Martins.
61
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Knesowitsch attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Knesowitsch attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Knesowitsch attempts a header but misses the shot.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Reinaldo Manoel da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Attempt Attempt
Denilson Alves Borges takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Update Update
Offside.
46
Update Update
Willian Borges da Silva comes on for Francis Amuzu.
46
Update Update
Pedro Gabriel is on, and Caio Paulista is off.
46
Update Update
Martin Braithwaite comes on for Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins.
46
Update Update
Leonel Perez comes on for Mathias Villasanti.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Reinaldo Manoel da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Walter Kannemann receives a yellow card.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Edson Guilherme Mendes dos Santos takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
39
Attempt Attempt
Francis Amuzu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Red Card Red Card Important
VAR decision results in the cancellation of the red card for Denilson Alves Borges.
36
Update Update
VAR Decision - vip_for_unknown.true
36
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Denilson Alves Borges.
26
Attempt Attempt
Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
26
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Cardoso Lemos Martins takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Cristian Pavon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Igor Marques takes a shot with his head but misses.
22
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bruno Santos scores with a right-footed shot.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bruno Santos scores to make it 1-0.
15
Attempt Attempt
Reinaldo Manoel da Silva attempts a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Edson Guilherme Mendes dos Santos with his right foot, but it misses the target.
9
Attempt Attempt
Carroll Santana Joao Victor takes a header shot, but it is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
8
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Jose Aldo Soares De Oliveira Filho with his right foot, but it is saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Juan Ignacio Martin Nardoni with his right foot, but it misses the target.
2
Attempt Attempt
Alesson Dos Santos Batista takes a right-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Bruno Arleu de Araujo.

CONCLUSION

Mirassol completed a 2-1 victory over Grêmio by maintaining their halftime advantage through disciplined defending. The home side maximized limited possession to secure three points while the visitors failed to convert their greater share of the ball into meaningful chances. Expected goals data supported the final margin as Mirassol outperformed their opponents in key attacking zones. Absence of dismissals allowed both teams to complete the fixture with full complements. The performance deviation by the home side proved decisive in overcoming a possession deficit. Overall the contest reflected the pre-match hierarchy between the two sides without external disruptions altering the flow.