Milsami vs Velez preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Complexul Sportiv Raional
Europa Conference League
MilsamiMilsami
0 1
VelezVEL
Full Time
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 2
|
Goal
Aldin Mesic - 83'
Vasile Luchita 80' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Milsami 0–1 Velez. The result saw Velez take the points. Velez showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Milsami 0-1 Velez. Velez showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns for both sides.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were recorded so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The final result was not aligned with pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data remained unavailable for this fixture.
  • Event impact: Velez's away goal decided progression in the knockout tie.
  • Red card distortion: The home red card altered second-half balance and flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Nicolson
D. Nicolson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Spence
C. Spence
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Gentles
C. Gentles
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Milsami A. Savinov
A. Savinov
VS
Velez I. Rahimić
I. Rahimić
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Velez Rank: 44 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Milsami Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Milsami
41.58%
Draw
28.72%
Away Velez
29.7%

Movement

Changes since opening
Milsami
+40.94%
Draw
+24.54%
Velez
-65.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
23.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Milsami
Velez
Power Score
23.33
23.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Milsami — Opponent-weighted form score
Velez — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Milsami Velez

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Milsami

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Velez

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Milsami ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Velez
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.54
25.68
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.68
10.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Milsami -1.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Velez +1.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Milsami
Velez
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Milsami ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Velez
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Milsami Velez
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Milsami Velez
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Milsami
Velez
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Milsami
vs
Velez
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Milsami Velez
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Milsami 0.05
Velez 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Milsami Velez
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Milsami 0.02
Velez 0.00
Milsami
Velez
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • VEL had peak pressure around 21'.
  • Milsami started the game with stronger pressure.
Milsami Pressure VEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: VEL reached the top pressure at 21' (55.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Milsami Milsami Home
1 matches
Velez VEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:02:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 2
Stadium
Complexul Sportiv Raional
Capacity
3160
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duncan Nicolson
Calum Spence
Chris Gentles
Daniel McFarlane

Statistics

Possession
Milsami
52%
VEL
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Shots 2
58 Dangerous attacks 66
56 Possession 44
1 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

115 Ball Safe 87
1 Goal Attempts 3
4 Substitutions 1
20 Throwins 27
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

131 Attacks 126

Discipline

0 Offsides 3
26 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

31
Filip Dujmovic
Filip Dujmovic (C) Goalkeeper
6.12
4
Aleksandar Angelov Defender
5
Christopher Nwaeze
Christopher Nwaeze Defender
6.26
24
Dehninio Muringen
Dehninio Muringen Defender
6.26
29
Hennos Asmelash
Hennos Asmelash Defender
6.25
15
David Sîrbu
David Sîrbu
Midfielder86'
30
Frederick Takyi
Frederick Takyi Defender
6.26
34
Decio Neto
Decio Neto Defender
6.25
—
Decio Neto
86'
11
Sorin Chele
Sorin Chele Midfielder
6.5
13
Vasile Luchita
Vasile Luchita
Midfielder63'
5.16
14
Phillip Odubia
Phillip Odubia Midfielder
6.5
21
Samouil Izountouemoi
Samouil Izountouemoi
Midfielder75'
6.37
33
William Fonkeu
William Fonkeu Midfielder
6.33
28
Kabamba Kalabatama
Kabamba Kalabatama Attacker
6.46
Referee : Duncan Nicolson

Starting XI ▼

1
Faris Ribic
Faris Ribic Goalkeeper
6.5
7
Ajdin Nukic
Ajdin Nukic Defender
6.5
8
Ante Hrkac
Ante Hrkac (C) Defender
6.5
13
Anes Omerovic
Anes Omerovic Defender
6.5
18
Said Duranovic
Said Duranovic Defender
6.5
6
Rafidine Abdullah
Rafidine Abdullah Midfielder
6.5
10
Dani Salcin
Dani Salcin Midfielder
6.5
83
Mahir Bešić
Mahir Bešić
Attacker76'
6.5
11
Aldin Mesic
Aldin Mesic Midfielder
6.65
29
Andro Babic
Andro Babic Midfielder
6.5
9
Armin Spahic
Armin Spahic Attacker
6.55
80
Nino Stojanovic
Nino Stojanovic Attacker
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Chiril Silcenco → Decio Neto
4th Substitution
86'
Event
David Sîrbu → Hennos Asmelash
5th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Armin Spahic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Radu Ginsari
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
83'
83'
Event
Aldin Mesic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
83'
Event
Dani Salcin
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Vasile Luchita
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
80'
76'
Event
Mahir Bešić → Dani Salcin
3rd Substitution
Event
Samouil Izountouemoi → Phillip Odubia
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Vasile Luchita
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Vasile Luchita → Sorin Chele
1st Substitution
63'
Event
William Fonkeu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Decio Neto
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
Event
Hennos Asmelash
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
40'
39'
Event
Aldin Mesic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
86
Update Update
Chiril Silcenco is on, and Aleksandar Angelov is off.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aldin Mesic scores to make it 1-0.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Second yellow card issued to Vasile Luchita.
76
Update Update
Mahir Besic comes on for Dani Salcin.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Samouil Izountouemoi comes on for Philip Odubia.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Vasile Luchita.
63
Update Update
Vasile Luchita comes on for Sorin Chele.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
40
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Duncan Nicolson.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Milsami 0-1 Velez. Structural assessment: Velez exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.