Millwall vs Oxford United preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Millwall MLW
2 0
Oxford United OXF
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Femi Azeez - 34', 48'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Millwall claimed a solid 2-0 win against Oxford United, asserting dominance from the outset at The Den. The hosts opened the scoring in the first half to lead 1-0 at halftime, never looking back as they controlled proceedings with 66% possession compared to Oxford's 34%. Oxford struggled to create meaningful chances, while Millwall's organized defense and clinical finishing sealed the points. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing the stronger side to prevail as expected. This result highlighted Millwall's structural edge, registering a significant 31.4% deviation in their favor. The second half saw no major tactical shifts from either team, with Millwall methodically managing the game to secure a clean sheet. Oxford's inability to capitalize on limited possession underscored Millwall's superiority throughout. The victory reinforces Millwall's strong home form in the Championship grind.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Millwall's 2-0 win exhibited a significant 31.4% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated as data was unavailable.
  • Event impact: No key events or second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to game structure.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Backhouse
A. Backhouse
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
I. Cooper
I. Cooper
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
A. Dallison
A. Dallison
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
J. Bell
J. Bell
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.56
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Stoke City Rank: 66 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 D
Norwich City Rank: 73 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 L
Derby County Rank: 70 L
Watford Rank: 68 W
Portsmouth Rank: 68 D
Hull City Rank: 69 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
68.56%
Draw
18.91%
Away Oxford United
12.53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Millwall
-29.3%
Draw
+16.99%
Oxford United
+12.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.14
65.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Oxford United
Power Score
75.14
65.41
League Position
3
22
Global Rank
108
315

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Oxford United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Millwall

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Millwall ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oxford United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Millwall Oxford United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Millwall Oxford United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Millwall
Oxford United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Millwall
vs
Oxford United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Millwall Oxford United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Millwall 0.00
Oxford United 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Millwall Oxford United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Millwall 0.00
Oxford United 0.00
Millwall
Oxford United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MLW had peak pressure around 79'.
  • MLW started the game with stronger pressure.
MLW Pressure OXF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MLW reached the top pressure at 79' (92.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Millwall MLW Home
4 matches
Oxford United OXF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
5
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T11:30:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Patterson
England
13 A. Patterson
R. Leonard
England
18 R. Leonard
T. Crama
France
4 T. Crama
J. Cooper
England
5 J. Cooper
Z. Norton Sturge
Substitution
England
3 Z. Norton Sturge
B. Bannan
Substitution
Scotland
67 B. Bannan
C. De Norre
Substitution
Belgium
24 C. De Norre
F. Azeez
Substitution
England
11 F. Azeez
C. Neghli
Algeria
10 C. Neghli
T. Ballo
Substitution
Austria
7 T. Ballo
M. Ivanović
Serbia
9 M. Ivanović
J. Cumming
England
1 J. Cumming
B. Spencer
Northern Ireland
15 B. Spencer
C. Brown
England
3 C. Brown
M. Helik
Poland
6 M. Helik
H. ter Avest
Substitution
Netherlands
24 H. ter Avest
W. Vaulks
Wales
4 W. Vaulks
Y. Konak
Substitution
Türkiye
5 Y. Konak
A. Emakhu
Republic of Ireland
10 A. Emakhu
J. Donley
Substitution
Northern Ireland
33 J. Donley
S. Mills
Substitution
England
17 S. Mills
W. Lankshear
Substitution
England
27 W. Lankshear

General Information

Date & Time
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium
The Den
Capacity
20146
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anthony Backhouse
Ian Cooper
Andrew Dallison
James Bell

Statistics

Possession
MLW
65%
OXF
35%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
21 Shots 4
90 Dangerous attacks 14
66 Possession 34
14 Corners 1
5 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
16 Dribble Attempts 9
17 Successful Headers 16
3 Goal Kicks 16
24 Throwins 14
6 Successful Dribbles 3
4 Substitutions 5
28 Ball Safe 42
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1
6 Goal Attempts 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

108 Attacks 51
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 72
64 Long Passes 57
36 Successful Long Passes 18
540 Passes 286
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32
14 Key Passes 4
462 Successful Passes 205

Defensive

41 Duels Won 45
12 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 6

Build-up

44 Total Crosses 6
13 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 5
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Backhouse

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.71
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Defender
6.63
14
Alfie Doughty
Alfie Doughty
Midfielder61'
6.97
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Defender
7.07
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Defender
7.03
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Defender
6.84
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Midfielder
6.65
25
Luke Cundle
Luke Cundle
Midfielder62'
6.79
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Midfielder
6.85
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Midfielder
2
7.26
39
Will Smallbone
Will Smallbone
Midfielder73'
6.62
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Midfielder
6.85
8
Billy Mitchell
Billy Mitchell
Midfielder61'
6.84
67
Barry Bannan
Barry Bannan Midfielder
7.11
17
Macaulay Langstaff
Macaulay Langstaff
Attacker81'
6.56
9
Mihailo Ivanović
Mihailo Ivanović Attacker
6.8
Referee : Anthony Backhouse

Starting XI ▼

1
Jamie Cumming
Jamie Cumming Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Ciaron Maurice Brown Defender
7
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Defender
6.96
15
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Brodie Gilmore Spencer Defender
6.69
24
Hidde ter Avest
Hidde ter Avest Defender
6.64
2
Sam Long
Sam Long
Defender88'
6.75
4
Will Vaulks
Will Vaulks Midfielder
6.8
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Midfielder
6.65
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan
Midfielder16'
6.96
10
Aidomo Emakhu
Aidomo Emakhu Midfielder
6.45
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Midfielder
6.75
32
Jin-woo Jeon
Jin-woo Jeon
Midfielder59'
6.58
33
Jamie Paul Donley
Jamie Paul Donley Midfielder
6.6
38
Jamie Carson McDonnell
Jamie Carson McDonnell
Midfielder59'
6.67
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Attacker
6.72
9
Mark Harris
Mark Harris
Attacker59'
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Sam Long → Hidde ter Avest
10th Substitution
Event
Macaulay Langstaff → Barry Bannan
9th Substitution
81'
Event
Will Smallbone  → Femi Azeez
8th Substitution
73'
Event
Luke Cundle → Thierno Ballo
7th Substitution
62'
Event
Alfie Doughty → Zak Sturge
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Billy Mitchell → Casper De Norre
6th Substitution
61'
59'
Event
Mark Harris → Will Lankshear
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Jin-woo Jeon → Stanley Mills
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Jamie Carson McDonnell → Jamie Paul Donley
4th Substitution
Event
Femi Azeez
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Thierno Ballo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
Femi Azeez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
34'
16'
Event
Cameron Brannagan → Yunus Konak
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Mark Harris takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Jeon Se-jin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Update Update
Will Smallbone is on, and Femi Azeez is off.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Sam Long comes on for Hidde ter Avest.
71
Attempt Attempt
Tristan Crama takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Substitution Substitution
Luke James Cundle is substituted for Thierno Ballo.
61
Update Update
Billy Mitchell is on, and Casper De Norre is off.
61
Substitution Substitution
Alfie Doughty is substituted for Zak Sturge.
73
Attempt Attempt
Luke James Cundle takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Leonard takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
59
Update Update
Mark Harris is on, and Will Lankshear is off.
59
Substitution Substitution
Jamie McDonnell is substituted for Jamie Donley.
53
Attempt Attempt
Camiel Neghli's left-footed shot is saved.
59
Substitution Substitution
Jeon Se-jin is substituted for Stanley Mills.
52
Attempt Attempt
Casper De Norre takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Femi Azeez scores with a right-footed shot.
81
Update Update
Macaulay Langstaff replaces Barry Bannan.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Camiel Neghli's right-footed shot is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Mihailo Ivanovic takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thierno Ballo receives a yellow card.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Femi Azeez scores with a right-footed shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Casper De Norre's left-footed shot is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Femi Azeez scores to make it 1-0.
28
Attempt Attempt
Femi Azeez takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Jake Cooper's header is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Camiel Neghli's left-footed shot is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Zak Sturge's left-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo's header shot misses the target.
11
Attempt Attempt
Will Lankshear takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jake Cooper's left-footed shot is saved.
16
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan replaces Yunus Emre Konak.
6
Attempt Attempt
Thierno Ballo's header shot misses the target.

CONCLUSION

Millwall's 2-0 triumph over Oxford United was a textbook display of home strength, blending possession mastery at 66% with resolute defending for a clean sheet. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they efficiently converted dominance into goals without facing disruptions like red cards. This result, while showing a notable 31.4% structural deviation, stayed true to market alignments and efficiency norms. Oxford's low possession limited their threat, affirming Millwall as the clearer superior force. The clean execution positions Millwall well in the standings, building momentum through controlled performances like this one.