Millwall vs Hull City preview

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Den Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Championship
MillwallMLW
Hull CityHUL
KICKOFF : Mon, 11 May - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 0

CONTEXT

Millwall welcome Hull City to The Den for the second leg of the Championship promotion play-off semi-final, with the aggregate score locked at 0-0 following a cagey 0-0 draw in the first leg at Hull's MKM Stadium just three days ago. The Lions, who secured third place in the regular season, hold a clear edge with a power score of 75.92 compared to Hull's 70.67, translating to a 5.3-point advantage that marks them as the stronger team. Playing at home in this decisive encounter, Neil Harris' side will aim to capitalize on their superior standing and crowd support to finally breach Hull's resilient defense. The Tigers, sixth in the table, impressed with their organization in the opener but now face the pressure of an away tiebreaker. Both teams enter with form scores of zero, setting the stage for a high-intensity battle where fine margins will decide progression to the Wembley final.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Millwall finished 3rd in the league, ahead of Hull City's 6th place.
  • Form: Both teams have a form score of 0 entering this second leg.
  • Squad: No specific squad changes reported ahead of the match.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: First leg ended 0-0 with limited transition opportunities.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage.
  • xVariable: Power scores favor Millwall at 75.92 versus Hull's 70.67.
  • Market: Millwall 53.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0%) | Hull City 21.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Millwall A. Neil
A. Neil
VS
Hull City S. Jakirović
S. Jakirović
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.53
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: 71 D
Oxford United Rank: 65 W
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Stoke City Rank: 66 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 68 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: 76 D
Norwich City Rank: 73 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 65 L
Leicester City Rank: 66 D
Birmingham City Rank: 69 D
Sheffield United Rank: 70 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 9 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Millwall
53.9%
Draw
24.8%
Away Hull City
21.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.92
70.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Millwall
Hull City
Power Score
75.92
70.67
League Position
3
6
Global Rank
102
196

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Millwall — Opponent-weighted form score
Hull City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Millwall Hull City

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Patterson
13 A. Patterson
R. Leonard
18 R. Leonard
T. Crama
4 T. Crama
J. Cooper
5 J. Cooper
Z. Norton Sturge
3 Z. Norton Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
49 D. Mazou-Sacko
C. De Norre
24 C. De Norre
F. Azeez
11 F. Azeez
C. Neghli
10 C. Neghli
T. Ballo
7 T. Ballo
J. Coburn
19 J. Coburn
I. Pandur
1 I. Pandur
R. Giles
3 R. Giles
C. Hughes
4 C. Hughes
J. Egan
15 J. Egan
L. Coyle
2 L. Coyle
M. Crooks
25 M. Crooks
R. Slater
27 R. Slater
L. Millar
7 L. Millar
J. Gelhardt
21 J. Gelhardt
M. Belloumi
10 M. Belloumi
O. McBurnie
9 O. McBurnie

General Information

Date & Time
May 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 0
Stadium
The Den
Capacity
20146
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Barrott
James Mainwaring
Wade Smith
Matt Donohue

Expected Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

13
Anthony Patterson
Anthony Patterson Goalkeeper
6.76
19
Josh Coburn
Josh Coburn Centre Forward
6.85
3
Zak Sturge
Zak Sturge Left Back
6.65
10
Camiel Neghli
Camiel Neghli Attacking Midfield
6.86
4
Tristan Crama
Tristan Crama Right Back
7.07
18
Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard Right Back
6.87
5
Jake Cooper
Jake Cooper Left Back
7.06
49
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Derek Mazou-Sacko Defensive Midfield
6.75
24
Casper De Norre
Casper De Norre Defensive Midfield
6.86
11
Femi Azeez
Femi Azeez Right Wing
7.29
7
Thierno Ballo
Thierno Ballo Left Wing
6.65
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Ivor Pandur
Ivor Pandur Goalkeeper
6.87
9
Oliver McBurnie
Oliver McBurnie Centre Forward
7.12
27
Regan Slater
Regan Slater Defensive Midfield
6.8
10
Mohamed Belloumi
Mohamed Belloumi Right Wing
6.85
15
John Egan
John Egan Right Back
6.88
4
Charlie Hughes
Charlie Hughes Left Back
7.04
3
Ryan Giles
Ryan Giles Left Back
6.71
7
Liam Millar
Liam Millar Left Wing
6.81
25
Matt Crooks
Matt Crooks Defensive Midfield
6.89
21
Joe Gelhardt
Joe Gelhardt Attacking Midfield
6.97
2
Lewie Coyle
Lewie Coyle Right Back
6.76

CONCLUSION

With the tie evenly poised at 0-0, Millwall's home advantage and higher power rating position them favorably to edge out Hull City in this play-off semi-final second leg. The Lions' third-place finish and 5.3-point superiority suggest they can impose their game plan at The Den, where fan fervor could prove decisive. Hull must replicate their first-leg solidity on the road, but Millwall's structural strengths make them likelier to advance. Expect a tactical chess match with goals at a premium, yet the hosts' quality should shine through in the end.