Mexico vs South Africa preview

2026 World Cup, World
Mexico City Stadium Thu, 11 Jun - 7:00 PM
World Cup
Mexico MEX
2 0
South Africa RSA
Full Time Thu, 11 Jun 7:00 PM
Round 1 Group Stage
Julián Quiñones - 9'
Raúl Jiménez - 67'
Goal
|
César Montes  90+2' Red Card
|
Red Card Yaya Sithole 49'
Red Card Themba Zwane 84'

CONTEXT

Mexico defeated South Africa 2-0 in a match that featured a halftime score of 1-0. Mexico controlled 61 percent of possession compared to South Africa's 39 percent. Expected goals stood at 1.29 for Mexico and 0.07 for South Africa, producing a differential of 1.22. The outcome remained consistent with these underlying metrics. One red card was issued to Mexico and two to South Africa, altering the flow after the interval through the listed second half adjustments. Pre-match projections indicated a significant deviation of 32.9 percent centered on Mexico. The result aligned with the stronger team's profile and confirmed market alignment. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Mexico 2-0 South Africa. Mexico showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with established performance indicators.
  • xG alignment: The final result proved consistent with xG figures of 1.29 to 0.07.
  • Market alignment: The outcome demonstrated clear market alignment with the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Mexico met xG expectations while South Africa remained below projected output.
  • Event impact: Red cards produced measurable event impact on second half progression.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion arose from one home and two away dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
W. Pereira Sampaio
W. Pereira Sampaio
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Pires
B. Pires
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
B. Boschilia
B. Boschilia
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Benítez
J. Benítez
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Mexico J. Aguirre Onaindía
J. Aguirre Onaindía
VS
South Africa H. Broos
H. Broos
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mexico
67.12%
Draw
21.81%
Away South Africa
11.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mexico
-30.77%
Draw
+19.89%
South Africa
+10.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
74.07
33.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mexico
South Africa
Power Score
74.07
33.33
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
15
60

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mexico — Opponent-weighted form score
South Africa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mexico South Africa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mexico

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

South Africa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mexico ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy South Africa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.52
11.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.15
28.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mexico +1.55 Efficiency Index
vs
South Africa -1.55 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mexico
South Africa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mexico
vs
South Africa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mexico South Africa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
20%
18%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.26 vs -0.01
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mexico South Africa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
18%
20%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.01 vs -0.26
Mexico
South Africa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mexico
vs
South Africa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mexico South Africa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mexico 0.57
South Africa 0.11
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mexico South Africa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mexico 0.00
South Africa 0.07
Mexico
South Africa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MEX had peak pressure around 56'.
  • MEX started the game with stronger pressure.
MEX Pressure RSA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MEX reached the top pressure at 56' (79.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mexico MEX Home
1 matches
South Africa RSA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-12T00:00:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
J. Rangel Aguilar
Mexico
1 J. Rangel Aguilar
I. Reyes Romero
Mexico
15 I. Reyes Romero
C. Montes Castro
Mexico
3 (C) C. Montes Castro
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
Mexico
23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
É. Lira Méndez
Substitution
Mexico
6 É. Lira Méndez
R. Alvarado Hernández
Mexico
25 R. Alvarado Hernández
B. Gutierrez
Substitution
Mexico
26 B. Gutierrez
Á. Fidalgo Fernández
Substitution
Mexico
8 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
J. Quiñones Quiñones
Substitution
Mexico
16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Substitution
Mexico
9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
R. Williams
South Africa
1 (C) R. Williams
M. Modiba
Substitution
South Africa
6 M. Modiba
M. Mbokazi
South Africa
14 M. Mbokazi
I. Okon
South Africa
21 I. Okon
N. Sibisi
South Africa
19 N. Sibisi
K. Mudau
South Africa
20 K. Mudau
J. Adams
Substitution
South Africa
23 J. Adams
S. Sithole
South Africa
13 S. Sithole
T. Mokoena
South Africa
4 T. Mokoena
L. Foster
Substitution
South Africa
9 L. Foster
I. Rayners
Substitution
South Africa
15 I. Rayners

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 1 · Group Stage
Stadium
Mexico City Stadium
Capacity
87523
Attendance
80824
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Wilton Pereira Sampaio
Bruno Raphael Pires
Bruno Boschilia
Juan Gabriel Benítez

Statistics

Possession
MEX
61%
RSA
39%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 1
28 Dangerous attacks 27
61 Possession 39
3 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

88 Ball Safe 89
5 Goal Kicks 8
10 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 4
21 Throwins 11
1 Hit Woodwork 0
14 Successful Headers 7
2 Assists 0
2 Injuries 1
13 Dribble Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 1
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 17

Attacking

98 Attacks 69

Possession

49 Long Passes 46
520 Passes 334
467 Successful Passes 272
90 Successful Passes Percentage 81
13 Key Passes 2
32 Successful Long Passes 17
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

2 Saves 2
11 Tackles 14
8 Interceptions 7
45 Duels Won 33

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 8
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Wilton Pereira Sampaio

Starting XI ▼

1
Raúl Rangel
Raúl Rangel Goalkeeper
7.11
3
César Montes
César Montes (C) Defender
6.74
5
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
6.85
15
Israel Reyes
Israel Reyes Defender
7.31
23
Jesús Gallardo
Jesús Gallardo Defender
6.95
6
Érik Lira
Érik Lira Midfielder
7.56
4
Edson Álvarez
Edson Álvarez
Midfielder76'
6.77
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
Álvaro Fidalgo Midfielder
6.86
19
Gilberto Mora
Gilberto Mora
Midfielder66'
6.39
16
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones Midfielder
8.45
10
Alexis Vega
Alexis Vega
Attacker79'
6.48
25
Roberto Alvarado
Roberto Alvarado Midfielder
7.6
26
Brian Gutiérrez
Brian Gutiérrez Midfielder
6.83
24
Luis Chávez
Luis Chávez
Midfielder66'
6.72
9
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez Attacker
7.7
14
Armando González
Armando González
Attacker76'
6.45
Referee : Wilton Pereira Sampaio

Starting XI ▼

1
Ronwen Williams
Ronwen Williams (C) Goalkeeper
6.72
6
Aubrey Modiba
Aubrey Modiba Defender
6.21
7
Oswin Appollis
Oswin Appollis
Attacker77'
6.69
14
Mbekezeli Mbokazi
Mbekezeli Mbokazi Defender
6.78
19
Nkosinathi Sibisi
Nkosinathi Sibisi Defender
6.09
20
Khuliso Mudau
Khuliso Mudau Defender
6.63
21
Ime Okon
Ime Okon Defender
6.32
4
Teboho Mokoena
Teboho Mokoena Midfielder
6.47
13
Yaya Sithole
Yaya Sithole Midfielder
5.09
23
Jayden Adams
Jayden Adams Midfielder
6.65
11
Themba Zwane
Themba Zwane
Midfielder61'
4.66
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster Attacker
6.32
5
Thalente Mbatha
Thalente Mbatha
Midfielder56'
6.43
15
Iqraam Rayners
Iqraam Rayners Attacker
6.35
17
Evidence Makgopa
Evidence Makgopa
Attacker77'
6.64

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
César Montes 
Professional foul last man / 3rd Redcard
90+2'
84'
Event
Themba Zwane
Violent conduct / 2nd Redcard
82'
Event
Themba Zwane
Card adjusted
Event
Alexis Vega → Julián Quiñones
9th Substitution
79'
77'
Event
Oswin Appollis → Aubrey Modiba
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Evidence Makgopa → Iqraam Rayners
8th Substitution
Event
Edson Álvarez → Érik Lira
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Armando González → Raúl Jiménez
6th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Nkosinathi Sibisi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Raúl Jiménez
Header / 2nd Goal
67'
Event
Luis Chávez → Brian Gutiérrez
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Gilberto Mora → Álvaro Fidalgo
4th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Themba Zwane → Jayden Adams
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
Thalente Mbatha → Lyle Foster
1st Substitution
49'
Event
Yaya Sithole
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Brian Gutiérrez
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
17'
Event
Teboho Mokoena
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Julián Quiñones
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with Mexico leading South Africa 2-0.
90
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau of South Africa won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau from South Africa won a free kick in defense.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
César Montes of Mexico receives a red card.
90
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau from South Africa won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
César Montes fouled a player for Mexico.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Edson Álvarez of Mexico won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mbekezeli Mbokazi of South Africa.
89
Update Update
Mbekezeli Mbokazi from South Africa won a free kick in defense.
84
Red Card Red Card Important
Themba Zwane of South Africa receives a red card for violent conduct.
82
Update Update
VAR decision results in an upgraded card for Themba Zwane of South Africa.
81
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Roberto Alvarado from Mexico.
81
Update Update
Roberto Alvarado of Mexico won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Fouled by Themba Zwane of South Africa.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Gilberto Mora of Mexico.
79
Update Update
Teboho Mokoena of South Africa won a free kick in defense.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Alexis Vega replaces Julián Quiñones.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Oswin Appollis replaces Aubrey Modiba.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Evidence Makgopa replaces Iqraam Rayners.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Armando González replaces Raúl Jiménez.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Edson Álvarez replaces Érik Lira.
76
Update Update
Luis Chávez of Mexico commits a foul.
76
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba of South Africa was awarded a free kick in defense.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nkosinathi Sibisi of South Africa receives a yellow card for a foul.
74
Update Update
Julián Quiñones of Mexico earned a free kick in the attacking area.
74
Update Update
Nkosinathi Sibisi from South Africa committed a foul.
73
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Raúl Jiménez from Mexico.
72
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez is called offside for Mexico.
68
Update Update
The match is currently paused for a drinks break.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexico leads 2-0 against South Africa. Raúl Jiménez scores for Mexico with a header from close range into the left corner, assisted by Roberto Alvarado's cross.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Gilberto Mora comes on for Álvaro Fidalgo.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Luis Chávez replaces Brian Gutiérrez.
63
Update Update
Julián Quiñones commits a dangerous play for Mexico.
63
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau from South Africa won a free kick in defense.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Themba Zwane replaces Jayden Adams.
61
Update Update
Roberto Alvarado from Mexico committed a foul.
61
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba from South Africa won a free kick in defense.
58
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Israel Reyes heads the ball from the center of the box but misses to the left. The assist came from Brian Gutiérrez's cross.
57
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba of South Africa commits a foul.
57
Update Update
Érik Lira of Mexico won a free kick in an attacking position.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for South Africa: Thalente Mbatha replaces Lyle Foster.
55
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Aubrey Modiba from South Africa takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top left corner by Raúl Rangel from Mexico. The assist was made by Teboho Mokoena.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Khuliso Mudau concedes.
52
Update Update
Jesús Gallardo misses a chance for Mexico, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. The assist was provided by Brian Gutiérrez.
52
Attempt Attempt
Raúl Jiménez's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
49
Red Card Red Card Important
Yaya Sithole from South Africa receives a red card.
49
Update Update
Brian Gutiérrez from Mexico won a free kick in an attacking position.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Yaya Sithole of South Africa.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Julián Quiñones of Mexico attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but Ronwen Williams of South Africa saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist was provided by Raúl Jiménez.
46
Attempt Attempt
Brian Gutiérrez from Mexico misses a chance as his right-footed shot from outside the box goes high.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the score at Mexico 1, South Africa 0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Mexico leading South Africa 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Brian Gutiérrez of Mexico missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box. Julián Quiñones provided the assist.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Jesús Gallardo's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Raúl Jiménez provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Mbekezeli Mbokazi from South Africa takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Raúl Rangel from Mexico saves it in the top left corner.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to South Africa after Jesús Gallardo concedes.
43
Update Update
Mbekezeli Mbokazi from South Africa won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
Roberto Alvarado from Mexico commits a foul.
42
Attempt Attempt
Julián Quiñones from Mexico hits the right post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Brian Gutiérrez.
42
Attempt Attempt
Julián Quiñones' right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Álvaro Fidalgo.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Yaya Sithole from South Africa.
39
Update Update
Érik Lira of Mexico won a free kick in defense.
37
Attempt Attempt
Lyle Foster of South Africa had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but missing the target. The assist came from Mbekezeli Mbokazi, who provided the cross.
32
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba is flagged for offside for South Africa.
30
Attempt Attempt
Brian Gutiérrez's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Julián Quiñones provided the assist.
25
Update Update
There is a delay in the match for a drinks break.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brian Gutiérrez from Mexico receives a yellow card for a foul.
23
Update Update
Teboho Mokoena from South Africa won a free kick on the right wing.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Brian Gutiérrez - Mexico.
21
Update Update
César Montes of Mexico has won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Khuliso Mudau from South Africa.
20
Update Update
Lyle Foster from South Africa has been awarded a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
César Montes fouled a player for Mexico.
19
Corner Corner
Julián Quiñones of Mexico had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but he missed the top right corner. Israel Reyes provided the assist.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Teboho Mokoena of South Africa receives a yellow card for a foul.
17
Update Update
Álvaro Fidalgo of Mexico won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Teboho Mokoena of South Africa.
16
Update Update
Mbekezeli Mbokazi from South Africa won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Brian Gutiérrez of Mexico.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Yaya Sithole of South Africa.
15
Update Update
Álvaro Fidalgo of Mexico won a free kick in defense.
13
Corner Corner
Raúl Jiménez had a missed chance for Mexico, heading the ball from the center of the box just to the left. The assist came from Roberto Alvarado, who provided a cross following a corner.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Khuliso Mudau concedes.
11
Update Update
Khuliso Mudau fouled an opponent for South Africa.
11
Update Update
Julián Quiñones won a free kick for Mexico on the left wing.
10
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez commits a handball for Mexico.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexico leads South Africa 1-0. Julián Quiñones scores for Mexico with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Érik Lira.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after Ronwen Williams concedes.
5
Corner Corner
Raúl Jiménez of Mexico attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Ronwen Williams of South Africa saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Israel Reyes with a cross.
4
Attempt Attempt
Brian Gutiérrez's right-footed shot from over 35 yards is blocked.
3
Update Update
Roberto Alvarado wins a free kick for Mexico in an attacking position.
3
Update Update
Aubrey Modiba from South Africa committed a foul.

CONCLUSION

The 2-0 scoreline reflected Mexico's dominance in possession and chance creation against a South Africa side limited to minimal xG output. Red card events in the second half introduced distortion that shaped available space and tempo without overturning the underlying trend. Alignment between expected goals and the actual result confirmed the validity of the performance data. Efficiency remained steady for the winning side while the visitors struggled to generate sustained pressure. The halftime advantage of 1-0 provided a platform that Mexico maintained through structured adjustments. Overall patterns showed the stronger team executing within projected parameters despite numerical changes on the field. This produced a controlled finish consistent with the data profile.