Mexico vs Korea Republic preview

2026 World Cup, World
Guadalajara Stadium Fri, 19 Jun - 1:00 AM
World Cup
Mexico MEX
1 0
Korea Republic KOR
Full Time Fri, 19 Jun 1:00 AM
Round 2 Group Stage
Luis Romo - 50'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Mexico secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Korea Republic despite trailing in expected goals and possession metrics. The match remained goalless at halftime with both teams level at 0-0. Korea Republic dominated the ball with 58 percent possession and created 1.2 xG while Mexico managed only 0.55 xG. The decisive goal arrived in the second half allowing the home side to claim all three points. Pre-match indicators had identified Mexico as the stronger team and the outcome aligned with those projections even as the xG suggested otherwise. No dismissals occurred on either side during the fixture. The 54.1 percent deviation underscored the unusual nature of the result relative to underlying numbers. This performance highlighted Mexico's ability to grind out results in challenging circumstances.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Mexico exhibited a significant 54.1 percent deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency levels stayed in line with projections for the home side.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome was inconsistent with the xG values of 0.55 for Mexico and 1.2 for Korea Republic.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market projections identifying Mexico as the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals favored Korea Republic yet Mexico claimed the 1-0 victory.
  • Event impact: The second half goal proved decisive in securing the win after a 0-0 halftime score.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued affecting team compositions during the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Tejera
G. Tejera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Barreiro
C. Barreiro
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Taran
N. Taran
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Rojas Noguera
A. Rojas Noguera
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Mexico J. Aguirre Onaindía
J. Aguirre Onaindía
VS
Korea Republic M. Hong
M. Hong
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
South Africa Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Czech Republic Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mexico
45.9%
Draw
29.54%
Away Korea Republic
24.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Mexico
-49.33%
Draw
+24.96%
Korea Republic
+24.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.15
20.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mexico
Korea Republic
Power Score
28.15
20.37
League Position
1
2
Global Rank
15
25

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mexico — Opponent-weighted form score
Korea Republic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mexico Korea Republic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Mexico

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Korea Republic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Mexico ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korea Republic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.07
18.97
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.97
21.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Mexico +0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
Korea Republic -0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Mexico
Korea Republic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Mexico
vs
Korea Republic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Mexico Korea Republic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
5%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs -0.06
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Mexico Korea Republic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
5%
0%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.06 vs +0.00
Mexico
Korea Republic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Mexico
vs
Korea Republic
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Mexico Korea Republic
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Mexico 0.47
Korea Republic 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mexico Korea Republic
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Mexico 0.00
Korea Republic 0.06
Mexico
Korea Republic
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MEX had peak pressure around 56'.
  • MEX started the game with stronger pressure.
MEX Pressure KOR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MEX reached the top pressure at 56' (71.46).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mexico MEX Home
1 matches
Korea Republic KOR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-20T00:00:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Rangel Aguilar
Mexico
1 J. Rangel Aguilar
J. Sánchez Ramos
Mexico
2 J. Sánchez Ramos
E. Álvarez Velázquez
Mexico
4 (C) E. Álvarez Velázquez
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
5 J. Vásquez Ibarra
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
Mexico
23 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
B. Gutierrez
Substitution
Mexico
26 B. Gutierrez
É. Lira Méndez
Mexico
6 É. Lira Méndez
L. Romo Barrón
Substitution
Mexico
7 L. Romo Barrón
R. Alvarado Hernández
Substitution
Mexico
25 R. Alvarado Hernández
R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Substitution
Mexico
9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
J. Quiñones Quiñones
Substitution
Mexico
16 J. Quiñones Quiñones
S. Kim
South Korea
1 S. Kim
G. Lee
South Korea
3 G. Lee
M. Kim
South Korea
4 M. Kim
H. Lee
South Korea
2 H. Lee
Seol Young-Woo
Substitution
South Korea
22 Seol Young-Woo
S. Paik
Substitution
South Korea
8 S. Paik
I. Hwang
South Korea
6 I. Hwang
M. Kim
Substitution
South Korea
15 M. Kim
J. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
10 J. Lee
K. Lee
South Korea
19 K. Lee
H. Son
Substitution
South Korea
7 (C) H. Son

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 19, 2026, 01:00 AM
Competition
2026 World Cup, World · Round 2 · Group Stage
Stadium
Guadalajara Stadium
Capacity
45664
Attendance
45522
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gustavo Tejera
Carlos Barreiro
Nicolás Taran
Andrés José Rojas Noguera

Statistics

Possession
MEX
44%
KOR
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 7
17 Dangerous attacks 40
42 Possession 58
0 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 5
6 Substitutions 7
17 Throwins 25
15 Successful Headers 13
10 Dribble Attempts 17
6 Successful Dribbles 9
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53

Attacking

96 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

56 Long Passes 64
427 Passes 578
349 Successful Passes 488
82 Successful Passes Percentage 84
6 Key Passes 6
16 Successful Long Passes 23
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

2 Saves 3
14 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 5
42 Duels Won 47

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 9
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 6
9 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Gustavo Tejera

Starting XI ▼

1
Raúl Rangel
Raúl Rangel Goalkeeper
7.19
2
Jorge Sánchez
Jorge Sánchez Defender
6.51
4
Edson Álvarez
Edson Álvarez (C) Defender
7.03
5
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
6.96
23
Jesús Gallardo
Jesús Gallardo Defender
6.93
6
Érik Lira
Érik Lira Midfielder
6.39
7
Luis Romo
Luis Romo Midfielder
7.58
18
Obed Vargas
Obed Vargas
Midfielder71'
6.72
26
Brian Gutiérrez
Brian Gutiérrez Midfielder
7
17
Orbelín Pineda
Orbelín Pineda
Midfielder71'
6.38
9
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez Attacker
6.28
11
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
Attacker80'
6.34
16
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones Attacker
7.04
21
César Huerta
César Huerta
Midfielder84'
6.61
25
Roberto Alvarado
Roberto Alvarado Attacker
6.81
15
Israel Reyes
Israel Reyes
Defender80'
6.5
Referee : Gustavo Tejera

Starting XI ▼

1
Seung-gyu Kim
Seung-gyu Kim Goalkeeper
6.14
2
Han-beom Lee
Han-beom Lee Defender
6.8
3
Gi-hyuk Lee
Gi-hyuk Lee Defender
6.48
4
Min-jae Kim
Min-jae Kim Defender
6.77
6
In-beom Hwang
In-beom Hwang Midfielder
6.54
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik Midfielder
6.31
9
Gue-sung Cho
Gue-sung Cho
Attacker77'
6.19
15
Moon-hwan Kim
Moon-hwan Kim Midfielder
6.49
25
Ji-sung Eom
Ji-sung Eom
Attacker71'
6.99
22
Young-woo Seol
Young-woo Seol Midfielder
6.58
20
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang
Attacker71'
6.46
7
Heung-min Son
Heung-min Son (C) Attacker
7.03
18
Hyeon-gyu Oh
Hyeon-gyu Oh
Attacker57'
6.36
10
Jae-sung Lee
Jae-sung Lee Attacker
6.81
11
Hee-chan Hwang
Hee-chan Hwang
Attacker57'
6.71
19
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee Attacker
7.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
César Huerta → Julián Quiñones
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Santiago Gimenez → Raúl Jiménez
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Israel Reyes → Roberto Alvarado
9th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Gue-sung Cho → Seung-ho Paik
7th Substitution
Event
Orbelín Pineda → Brian Gutiérrez
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Obed Vargas → Luis Romo
6th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Ji-sung Eom → Moon-hwan Kim
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Hyun-jun Yang → Young-woo Seol
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Seung-ho Paik
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
57'
Event
Hee-chan Hwang → Jae-sung Lee
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Hyeon-gyu Oh → Heung-min Son
2nd Substitution
Event
Luis Romo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
4'
Event
Kang-in Lee
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Lee Gi-Hyuk.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Mexico after a concession by Lee Gi-Hyuk.
90
Update Update
Attempt blocked. Cho Gue-Sung's header from the center of the box for Korea Republic is blocked. Lee Kang-In provided the assist with a cross.
90
Corner Corner
Korea Republic wins a corner after Johan Vásquez concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Korea Republic wins a corner after Israel Reyes concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Lee Han-Beom from Korea Republic heads the ball from the center of the box but it goes to the right. He was assisted by Lee Kang-In, who delivered a cross following a corner.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
89
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Cho Gue-Sung's header from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the center of the goal by Raúl Rangel. The chance was assisted by Eom Ji-Sung's cross.
87
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Yang Hyun-Jun from Korea Republic has a left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box that is saved.
87
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Raúl Rangel from Mexico.
85
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Obed Vargas from Mexico has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved in the bottom right corner by Kim Seung-Gyu from the Korea Republic.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: César Huerta comes on for Julián Quiñones.
82
Update Update
Érik Lira commits a foul for Mexico.
82
Update Update
Hwang Hee-Chan from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Israel Reyes comes on for Roberto Alvarado.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Santiago Giménez comes on for Raúl Jiménez.
78
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Lee Kang-In from Korea Republic has a left-footed shot from outside the box.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Korea Republic: Cho Gue-Sung comes on for Paik Seung-Ho.
76
Update Update
Offside called against Korea Republic. Yang Hyun-Jun is caught offside.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Raúl Jiménez's right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is saved in the center of the goal by Kim Seung-Gyu. Julián Quiñones provided the assist.
75
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez commits a foul for Mexico.
75
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
73
Update Update
Jesús Gallardo wins a free kick for Mexico on the left wing.
73
Update Update
Foul committed by Yang Hyun-Jun of Korea Republic.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Obed Vargas comes on for Luis Romo.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Korea Republic: Eom Ji-Sung comes on for Kim Moon-Hwan.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Korea Republic: Yang Hyun-Jun comes on for Seol Young-Woo.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Mexico: Orbelín Pineda comes on for Brian Gutiérrez.
70
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
68
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
64
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Han-Beom of Korea Republic.
64
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez from Mexico wins a free kick in the defensive half.
62
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez commits a foul for Mexico.
62
Update Update
Lee Han-Beom from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
61
Update Update
Seol Young-Woo of Korea Republic is caught offside.
58
Attempt Attempt
Hwang In-Beom from Korea Republic has a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is blocked.
58
Update Update
Brian Gutiérrez from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Paik Seung-Ho of the Korea Republic.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Paik Seung-Ho from the Korea Republic receives a yellow card for a foul.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Korea Republic: Oh Hyeon-Gyu comes on for Son Heung-Min.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Julián Quiñones of Mexico.
57
Update Update
Son Heung-Min from Korea Republic wins a free kick on the right wing.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Korea Republic: Hwang Hee-Chan comes on for Lee Jae-Sung.
56
Update Update
Offside called against Mexico. Julián Quiñones is caught offside.
53
Update Update
Handball by Brian Gutiérrez of Mexico.
50
Update Update
Raúl Jiménez's header from the center of the box is blocked. Julián Quiñones provided the cross for the attempt.
50
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mexico leads 1-0 against Korea Republic. Luis Romo scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
49
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jesús Gallardo (Mexico) took a left-footed shot from a tough angle on the left.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Mexico and Korea Republic.
45
Update Update
Érik Lira commits a foul for Mexico.
45
Update Update
Lee Kang-In from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Jorge Sánchez commits a foul for Mexico.
45
Update Update
Lee Jae-Sung from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
44
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang-In's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Son Heung-Min provided the assist.
41
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Seol Young-Woo from Korea Republic had a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left.
38
Update Update
Lee Han-Beom from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Jesús Gallardo of Mexico.
32
Update Update
Seol Young-Woo of Korea Republic is caught offside.
31
Update Update
Roberto Alvarado is caught offside for Mexico.
29
Update Update
Offside called against Korea Republic. Lee Jae-Sung is caught offside.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
20
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Attempt saved. Julián Quiñones' header from the center of the box is saved by Kim Seung-Gyu in the center of the goal. The assist came from Roberto Alvarado's cross.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Han-Beom of the Korea Republic.
18
Update Update
Julián Quiñones wins a free kick for Mexico in the defensive half.
17
Update Update
Jorge Sánchez is caught offside for Mexico.
16
Update Update
Offside against Korea Republic. Son Heung-Min is caught offside.
15
Update Update
Lee Jae-Sung from Korea Republic is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
15
Update Update
Érik Lira commits a foul for Mexico.
12
Update Update
Julián Quiñones from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
12
Update Update
Lee Han-Beom from Korea Republic commits a foul.
7
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Brian Gutiérrez (Mexico) takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes to the right. He was assisted by Luis Romo.
7
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Roberto Alvarado from Mexico, who took a left-footed shot from outside the box.
4
Update Update
Luis Romo wins a free kick for Mexico in the defensive half.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Kang-In from the Korea Republic.
4
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lee Kang-In from Korea Republic receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
3
Update Update
Julián Quiñones from Mexico is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
3
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lee Kang-In receives a yellow card.
1
Update Update
Offside.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Gustavo Tejera.

CONCLUSION

The result saw Mexico prevail 1-0 against Korea Republic in a contest defined by efficiency rather than dominance. Although the visitors generated superior xG and controlled more of the ball the hosts capitalized on their limited opportunities to secure the win. The halftime stalemate at 0-0 gave way to a second half breakthrough that proved decisive. Alignment with market expectations occurred despite the xG differential favoring Korea Republic by 0.65. Efficiency remained in line with pre-match assessments for the winning side. Absence of red cards ensured both teams played with full complements throughout. The significant structural deviation did not prevent Mexico from claiming victory as the designated stronger team. Overall the match demonstrated how clinical finishing can override statistical expectations in determining the final outcome.