Mechelen vs Sint-Truiden preview
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
Round 5 ·
Championship Round
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 12
CONTEXT
Sint-Truiden delivered a commanding second-half performance to secure a 4-1 victory over Mechelen in the Belgian Pro League. The game was evenly poised at halftime with both sides scoring once, reflecting Mechelen's early resilience at home. However, Sint-Truiden, identified as the stronger team beforehand, dominated possession with 57% to Mechelen's 43% and unleashed three goals after the break to turn the tide decisively. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing the visitors' superior structure and efficiency to shine through. Mechelen's initial promise faded as they struggled to counter the away side's momentum, resulting in a clear win that highlighted Sint-Truiden's ability to capitalize on opportunities. This outcome showed minimal deviations from expected patterns, underscoring the visitors' control.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Structural deviation was minimal at 2.4% in favor of Sint-Truiden.
-
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
-
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
-
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match.
-
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
F. Vanderbiest
VS
W. Vrancken
1.18
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.87
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge
Rank:
L
Anderlecht
Rank:
L
Union Saint-Gilloise
Rank:
L
Gent
Rank:
D
Club Brugge
Rank:
L
Anderlecht
Rank:
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht
Rank:
W
Gent
Rank:
D
Club Brugge
Rank:
L
Union Saint-Gilloise
Rank:
L
Union Saint-Gilloise
Rank:
L
Genk
Rank:
L
12
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 6 - 18
18
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Mechelen
28.6%
Draw
26.11%
Sint-Truiden
45.29%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
16.76
20.04
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Power Score
16.76
20.04
League Position
6
4
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Mechelen
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Sint-Truiden
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Mechelen Sint-Truiden
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Mechelen
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Sint-Truiden
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Mechelen
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Sint-Truiden
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Mechelen
vs
Sint-Truiden
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Mechelen
0.00
Sint-Truiden
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Mechelen
0.00
Sint-Truiden
0.00
Mechelen
Sint-Truiden
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SIT had peak pressure around 74'.
- SIT started the game with stronger pressure.
MEC Pressure
SIT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
SIT reached the top pressure at 74' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Mechelen
MEC
Home
36
matches
Sint-Truiden
SIT
Away
Match Record
12
Wins
18
6
Draws
6
18
Losses
12
Goals
40
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
40
-11
Goal Difference
+11
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-26T13:31:25+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-1-2
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
8 M. Konate
38 B. Antonio
17 M. Servais
19 K. Mrabti
28 B. Boersma
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 5 · Championship Round
Stadium
AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Capacity
16672
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lawrence Visser
Thibaud Nijssen
Nicolas Laforge
Ruben Wyns
Next Match
Mechelen
vs
Gent
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 11:30 AM
Venue: AFAS-stadion Achter de Kazerne
Sint-Truiden
vs
Union Saint-Gilloise
League: Pro League
Kickoff: Sat, 2 May - 6:45 PM
Venue: Stayen Stadion
Statistics
Possession
MEC
45%
SIT
55%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
4
2
Big Chances Created
3
6
Shots
13
26
Dangerous attacks
40
43
Possession
57
4
Corners
7
13
Free kicks
11
1
Yellow Cards
1
Match Overview
0
Hit Woodwork
1
23
Throwins
18
53
Successful Dribbles Percentage
20
99
Ball Safe
85
5
Goal Attempts
14
10
Goal Kicks
10
15
Dribble Attempts
10
8
Successful Dribbles
2
1
Assists
3
1
Injuries
1
3
Substitutions
5
Attacking
27
Attacks
42
2
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
55
Long Passes
44
76
Successful Passes Percentage
83
340
Passes
457
260
Successful Passes
381
44
Successful Long Passes Percentage
52
24
Successful Long Passes
23
8
Key Passes
15
Defensive
44
Duels Won
43
5
Saves
1
17
Tackles
17
7
Interceptions
7
Build-up
4
Accurate Crosses
7
13
Total Crosses
20
Discipline
1
Offsides
0
11
Fouls
13
Lineup
Referee :
Lawrence Visser
Manager ▼
F. Vanderbiest
Coach
Starting XI ▼
8
Mory Konaté
Defender
6.79 —
17
Mathis Servais
Midfielder
6.99 38
Bill Antonio
Midfielder
6.52 19
Kerim Mrabti
Attacker
6.88 28
Bouke Boersma
Attacker
Substitutes ▼
15
Tijn Van Ingelgom
Goalkeeper
33
Tommy St. Jago
Defender
6.81 12
H. Bandé
Attacker
6.5
Referee :
Lawrence Visser
Manager ▼
W. Vrancken
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
12
Jo Coppens
Goalkeeper
5.94 21
Matt Lendfers
Goalkeeper
Events
2ND-HALF
3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+2'
88'
8th Substitution
7th Substitution
86'
84'
6th Substitution
83'
5th Substitution
75'
Ryotaro Ito
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
3rd Substitution
73'
4th Substitution
73'
73'
2nd Substitution
63'
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
49'
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
44'
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Bouke Boersma
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
26'
CONCLUSION
Sint-Truiden's 4-1 triumph over Mechelen exemplifies their second-half dominance and overall superiority, converting halftime parity into a rout through better possession and execution. With no interruptions from red cards or major events, the result stayed true to pre-match structural and efficiency expectations, showing minimal deviation. Mechelen's early goal offered hope, but their 43% possession underscored defensive frailties exposed by the visitors. This performance solidifies Sint-Truiden's credentials as the stronger side, providing momentum for upcoming fixtures while highlighting Mechelen's need for greater consistency.
