Marítimo vs Casa Pia preview

Portugal flag 2026/2027 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Campo da Imaculada Conceição Sat, 8 Aug - 2:30 PM
Liga Portugal
MarítimoCSM
1 0
Casa PiaCPAC
Full Time Sat, 8 Aug 2:30 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Goal
|

CONTEXT

In a tightly contested encounter, Marítimo edged out Casa Pia with a narrow 1-0 win at home. The first half ended level at 0-0, with neither side able to break the deadlock despite Casa Pia's higher possession share of 60 percent. Marítimo, who entered as underdogs against the stronger visitors, produced an efficient performance that yielded 1.21 expected goals to their opponents' 0.5. This result highlighted a notable deviation from anticipated outcomes given the pre-match assessments. The single goal proved decisive in a match devoid of dismissals or major disruptions. Overall, the home team's resilience shone through in securing all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Marítimo 1-0 Casa Pia. Marítimo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with expected patterns for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The final result showed true alignment with the xG values of 1.21 to 0.5.
  • Market alignment: The outcome proved consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations positioned Marítimo ahead by a differential of 0.71.
  • Event impact: The decisive event impact came from Marítimo scoring the only goal of the game.
  • Red card distortion: With no red cards shown to either side, red card distortion played no role in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. dos Santos Guelho
S. dos Santos Guelho
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Ferreira
A. Ferreira
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Pereira dos Santos
D. Pereira dos Santos
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Gonçalves Rodrigues
A. Gonçalves Rodrigues
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Marítimo M. van der Gaag
M. van der Gaag
VS
Casa Pia Casa Pia
Casa Pia
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.86
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: 67 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 W
Tondela Rank: 67 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 71 L
Sporting Braga Rank: 83 L
Santa Clara Rank: 70 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
34.48
65.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Marítimo
Casa Pia
Power Score
34.48
65.23
League Position
1
18
Global Rank
403
411

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Marítimo — Opponent-weighted form score
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Marítimo Casa Pia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Marítimo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Marítimo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Casa Pia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.25
19.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.17
44.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Marítimo +2.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Casa Pia -2.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Marítimo
Casa Pia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Marítimo
vs
Casa Pia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Marítimo Casa Pia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
22%
21%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.26 vs -0.11
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Marítimo Casa Pia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
21%
22%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.11 vs -0.26
Marítimo
Casa Pia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Marítimo
vs
Casa Pia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Marítimo Casa Pia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Marítimo 0.47
Casa Pia 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Marítimo Casa Pia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Marítimo 0.00
Casa Pia 0.03
Marítimo
Casa Pia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CSM had peak pressure around 58'.
  • CSM started the game with stronger pressure.
CSM Pressure CPAC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CSM reached the top pressure at 58' (88.91).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 08, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Campo da Imaculada Conceição
Capacity
2000
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho
André Ferreira
Diogo Pereira dos Santos
Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Statistics

Possession
CSM
44%
CPAC
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 2
34 Dangerous attacks 50
40 Possession 60
2 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

61 Ball Safe 70
5 Goal Kicks 8
8 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
4 Throwins 18
19 Successful Headers 19
1 Assists 0
6 Dribble Attempts 8
6 Successful Dribbles 8
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42

Attacking

65 Attacks 118
1 Counter Attacks 0

Possession

14 Long Passes 23
307 Passes 470
78 Successful Passes Percentage 89
10 Key Passes 6

Defensive

4 Saves 3
12 Tackles 4
4 Interceptions 5
55 Duels Won 54

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
17 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Starting XI ▼

13
Alfonso Pastor
Alfonso Pastor Goalkeeper
7.49
2
Igor Julião
Igor Julião Defender
6.82
4
Rafael Fernandes
Rafael Fernandes Defender
6.97
23
Paulo Henrique
Paulo Henrique Defender
6.75
44
Romain Correia
Romain Correia Defender
6.86
6
Rodrigo Andrade
Rodrigo Andrade Midfielder
6.7
14
Raphael Guzzo
Raphael Guzzo Midfielder
6.9
22
Gábor Szalai
Gábor Szalai
Defender90+1'
18
Vladan Danilović
Vladan Danilović Midfielder
6.71
25
Yellu Santiago
Yellu Santiago
Midfielder90+1'
10
Martín Tejón
Martín Tejón Attacker
6.77
15
Tomás Franco Tavares
Tomás Franco Tavares
Defender88'
6.39
11
Simo
Simo Attacker
6.55
27
Samuel Bamba
Samuel Bamba
Attacker83'
6.39
17
Adrián Butzke Benavides
Adrián Butzke Benavides Attacker
6.81
90
M. Boakye
M. Boakye
Attacker88'
Referee : Sérgio José dos Santos Guelho

Starting XI ▼

31
André Gomes
André Gomes Goalkeeper
6.75
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Defender
6.75
3
Kaly
Kaly
Defender81'
6.38
5
Abdu Conté
Abdu Conté Defender
7.05
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas
Defender66'
6.57
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Defender
6.34
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Defender
6.86
8
Gabi Pereira
Gabi Pereira Midfielder
6.42
20
Alassana Jatta
Alassana Jatta
Attacker79'
6.39
10
Rochinha
Rochinha Midfielder
6.52
13
Korede Osundina
Korede Osundina Midfielder
6.28
19
Kevin Prieto
Kevin Prieto
Attacker66'
6.64
24
Seba Pérez
Seba Pérez Midfielder
6.81
16
Selvi Clua
Selvi Clua
Midfielder81'
6.57
80
Lawrence Ofori
Lawrence Ofori Midfielder
6.56
9
Henrique Araújo
Henrique Araújo Attacker
6.53

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tomás Franco Tavares
3rd Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Yellu Santiago → Vladan Danilović
9th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Gábor Szalai → Raphael Guzzo
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Raphael Guzzo
4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
M. Boakye → Adrián Butzke Benavides
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Tomás Franco Tavares → Martín Tejón
8th Substitution
88'
86'
Event
Alassana Jatta
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Samuel Bamba → Simo
6th Substitution
83'
81'
Event
Selvi Clua → Seba Pérez
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Kaly → João Goulart
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Alassana Jatta → Gabi Pereira
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Kevin Prieto → Korede Osundina
1st Substitution
66'
Event
Pedro Rosas → Abdu Conté
2nd Substitution
Event
Raphael Guzzo
Header / 1st Goal
61'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
David Sousa
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Henrique Araújo's header is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomas Tavares receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Gabor Szalai is on, and Raphael Gregorio Guzzo is off.
90
Update Update
On Yellu Santiago, off Vladan Danilovic.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Raphael Gregorio Guzzo.
87
Update Update
Tomas Tavares is on, and Martin Tejon is off.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Raphael Gregorio Guzzo.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Alassana Jatta.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
81
Update Update
On comes Kaly, off goes Joao Goulart Silva.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Silvi Clua comes on for Sebastian Perez.
78
Update Update
Alassana Jatta is on, and Gabi Pereira is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Romain Rodrigues Correia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Shot - David Sousa Albino Head Shot Missed
66
Update Update
On comes Kevin Prieto, and off goes Oluwakorede David Osundina.
66
Substitution Substitution
Pedro Silva Rosas is substituted for Abdu Conte.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
56
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Henrique Rodrigues Cabral takes a left-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Martin Tejon takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Martin Tejon takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Simo Bouzaidi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Diogo Filipe Costa Rocha, Rochinha, with a right-footed shot that is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Martin Tejon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Martin Tejon with his left foot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Vladan Danilovic attempted a header but missed the shot.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to David Sousa Albino.
43
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Filipe Costa Rocha, known as Rochinha, takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Vladan Danilovic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Attempt Attempt
David Sousa Albino takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Henrique Araújo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Butzke takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Sebastian Perez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Lawrence Ofori takes a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
13
Update Update
Offside.
10
Update Update
Offside.
10
Attempt Attempt
Rodrigo Andrade's left-footed shot is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Gregorio Guzzo takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Filipe Costa Rocha, known as Rochinha, takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Sergio Guelho.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Marítimo 1-0 Casa Pia. Structural assessment: Marítimo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.