Mantova vs Monza preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Danilo Martelli Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Serie B
MantovaMAN
MonzaMON
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 1:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Mantova host Monza in Serie B (Regular Season) at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Domestically, Mantova sit 11th in the table while Monza are 3th. Power ranking favours Monza by 6.8 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Monza possesses a 6.8-point power advantage over Mantova with scores of 60.68 versus 53.9.
  • Form: Monza shows stronger recent form at 28.33 compared to Mantova's 24.22.
  • Squad: Mantova occupies 11th place while Monza sits in 3rd in Serie B standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in available statistics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance lacks xG data, relying on low-confidence proxies for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-based variables remain unavailable due to disabled add-on.
  • Market: Baseline split: Mantova 19.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.9% (Δ+0%) | Monza 54.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.12
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 53 W
Avellino Rank: 50 L
Spezia Rank: 50 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 W
Modena Rank: 57 L
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 57 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Catanzaro Rank: 61 D
Venezia Rank: 70 D
Reggiana Rank: 47 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Mantova
19.82%
Draw
25.87%
Away Monza
54.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.9
60.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Mantova
Monza
Power Score
53.9
60.68
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
667
273

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Mantova Monza

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Mantova MAN Home
1 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T12:30:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Bardi
Italy
24 F. Bardi
A. Dembélé
France
3 A. Dembélé
S. Cella
Italy
29 S. Cella
A. Castellini
Italy
27 A. Castellini
T. Maggioni
Italy
96 T. Maggioni
S. Trimboli
Italy
21 S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
Italy
80 R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
France
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia
T. Marras
Italy
23 T. Marras
F. Ruocco
Italy
19 F. Ruocco
L. Mancuso
Italy
9 L. Mancuso
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Lucchesi
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
S. Birindelli
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
P. Dentello Azzi
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
P. Cutrone
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
A. Colpani
Italy
28 A. Colpani
A. Petagna
Italy
37 A. Petagna

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Capacity
7487
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Imperiale
Mattia Regattieri
Mario Perri
Juan Luca Sacchi

Lineup

Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

24
Francesco Bardi
Francesco Bardi Goalkeeper
6.61
3
Ali Dembélé
Ali Dembélé Defender
6.8
27
Alessio Castellini
Alessio Castellini Defender
7.03
29
Stefano Cella
Stefano Cella Defender
6.81
50
Fahem Benaïssa
Fahem Benaïssa Defender
6.81
96
Tommaso Maggioni
Tommaso Maggioni Defender
6.65
19
Francesco Ruocco
Francesco Ruocco Midfielder
6.88
21
Simone Trimboli
Simone Trimboli Midfielder
7.03
23
Tommaso Marras
Tommaso Marras Midfielder
6.97
80
Rachid Kouda
Rachid Kouda Midfielder
6.95
9
Leonardo Mancuso
Leonardo Mancuso Attacker
6.7
Referee : Juan Luca Sacchi

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
7.06
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
6.63
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Defender
7.06
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
7.09
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
6.86
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Defender
6.97
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Midfielder
6.85
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
6.94
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Midfielder
7.07
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
7.13
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
6.92

CONCLUSION

Monza's superior power rating, league position, and form position them as the team to beat against mid-table Mantova. The 6.8-point edge highlights structural dominance, likely evident in possession and chance creation. Home advantage at Stadio Danilo Martelli offers Mantova hope, but lacking advanced metrics complicates their preparation. Expect Monza to control tempo, exploiting transitions where data gaps exist. Mantova must elevate defensive solidity and capitalize on rare opportunities to compete. This matchup tests resilience versus quality, with Monza poised to secure vital points in their title chase.