Manchester City vs Aston Villa preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Etihad Stadium Sun, 24 May - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Manchester City MCI
Aston Villa AVL
KICKOFF : Sun, 24 May - 3:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Manchester City welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad Stadium for a Premier League regular season match in the 2025/2026 campaign. The home side currently occupies second place in the domestic standings, while the visitors are positioned fourth. Power scores indicate a competitive edge for City at 98.73 compared to 91.93 for Villa, resulting in a 6.8 point advantage for the stronger team. Form scores further highlight City's dominance with 35.33 against Villa's 19.72. Both teams bring substantial experience to the pitch in this league encounter. The match promises an intriguing battle given the high stakes in the top flight. Venue conditions at the Etihad are expected to favor the hosts' style of play. Overall, this fixture represents a key test for both clubs as they navigate the season's challenges.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Manchester City hold a 6.8 point power advantage over Aston Villa with respective scores of 98.73 and 91.93.
  • Form: Manchester City enter with a superior form score of 35.33 compared to Aston Villa's 19.72.
  • Squad: Squad depth remains a strength for both Manchester City and Aston Villa in their domestic campaigns.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency ratings are not specified in available data for this fixture.
  • Transition: Effective transitions could determine the flow of the game between these two sides.
  • Set pieces: Set piece analysis relies on proxy data due to limited xG availability, showing low confidence levels.
  • xVariable: Manchester City boast a higher power score of 98.73 against Aston Villa's 91.93.
  • Market: Manchester City 73.6% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 15.8% (Δ-0.2%) | Aston Villa 10.6% (Δ+-0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
2.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.64
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 W
Brentford Rank: 89 W
Everton Rank: 87 D
Burnley Rank: 78 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Liverpool Rank: 92 W
Burnley Rank: 77 D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 84 L
Fulham Rank: 86 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 W
Nottingham Forest Rank: 87 D
31
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
31 - 8 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Manchester City
73.64%
Draw
15.78%
Away Aston Villa
10.58%

Movement

Changes since opening
Manchester City
+0.2%
Draw
-0.16%
Aston Villa
-0.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
98.73
91.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Manchester City
Aston Villa
Power Score
98.73
91.93
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
2
8

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Manchester City Aston Villa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 49 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Manchester City MCI Home
49 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
32
Wins
10
7
Draws
7
10
Losses
32
Goals
105
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
105
+57
Goal Difference
-57
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:09:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Donnarumma
Italy
25 G. Donnarumma
M. Nunes
Portugal
27 M. Nunes
A. Khusanov
Uzbekistan
45 A. Khusanov
M. Guehi
England
15 M. Guehi
N. O'Reilly
England
33 N. O'Reilly
Rodri
Spain
16 Rodri
A. Semenyo
Ghana
42 A. Semenyo
B. Silva
Portugal
20 B. Silva
M. Kovačić
Croatia
8 M. Kovačić
J. Doku
Belgium
11 J. Doku
E. Haaland
Norway
9 E. Haaland
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
V. Nilsson Lindelöf
Sweden
3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
E. Buendía
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
J. McGinn
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
O. Watkins
England
11 O. Watkins

General Information

Date & Time
May 24, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Etihad Stadium
Capacity
53400
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Andy Madley
David Webb
Richard West
Simon Long

Lineup

Referee : Andy Madley

Starting XI ▼

25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
6.89
15
Marc Guéhi
Marc Guéhi Defender
7.04
27
Matheus Nunes
Matheus Nunes Defender
7.06
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
6.92
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
6.9
8
Mateo Kovacic
Mateo Kovacic Midfielder
6.82
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
7.29
20
Bernardo Silva
Bernardo Silva Midfielder
6.95
9
Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland Attacker
7.35
11
Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku Attacker
7.2
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Attacker
7
Referee : Andy Madley

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.87
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
6.83
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.73
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.76
3
Victor Lindelöf
Victor Lindelöf Midfielder
6.6
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.14
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
6.93
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Attacker
6.9
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Attacker
6.81
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.91

CONCLUSION

Anticipation builds for this Premier League clash as Manchester City aim to leverage their home advantage against a resilient Aston Villa side. With superior form and power metrics, the hosts are well placed to control proceedings at the Etihad. Villa will look to their strong league position to mount a challenge and secure valuable points on the road. Key areas such as set pieces and transitional play may prove decisive in breaking down defenses. The encounter underscores the depth and quality present in the Premier League this season. Fans can expect a tactical battle with moments of individual brilliance likely to shine through. Both teams have shown capability to perform under pressure throughout the campaign.