Malmö FF vs Sirius preview

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Malmö Stadion Thu, 23 Apr - 5:00 PM
Allsvenskan
Malmö FF MAL
2 3
Sirius SIR
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 4 Regular Season
Sead Haksabanovic - 55'
Adrian Skogmar - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Mohamed Soumah - 13'
Isak Bjerkebo - 60'
Robbie Ure - 65'

CONTEXT

Malmö FF hosted Sirius in a thrilling Allsvenskan encounter that ended 2-3 in favor of the visitors. Sirius, deemed the stronger team, took control early, forging a 1-0 halftime lead with precise finishing despite Malmö's 57% possession dominance. The hosts mounted a spirited second-half response, netting twice to level the scores momentarily, but Sirius struck back decisively to claim victory. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing the game to flow naturally without disciplinary distortions. Home side's territorial advantage failed to translate into sustained pressure, as Sirius thrived on counter-attacks and clinical conversion. This result highlights Sirius's tactical discipline and resilience under pressure, overturning expectations in a match defined by momentum swings rather than dominance. Minimal structural deviation of 4.4% aligned the outcome closely with underlying patterns, underscoring a fair reflection of on-pitch realities.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.4% favoring Sirius.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmet due to lack of underlying metrics.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
A. Svensson
A. Svensson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
M. Lundgren
M. Lundgren
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
A. Aganovic
A. Aganovic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
VS
Sirius A. Engelmark
A. Engelmark
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Djurgården Rank: W
GAIS Rank: W
Örgryte Rank: D
GAIS Rank: W
Häcken Rank: D
Hammarby Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Västerås SK Rank: W
Hammarby Rank: W
Degerfors Rank: W
Värnamo Rank: W
Norrköping Rank: W
Elfsborg Rank: W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Malmö FF
0.19%
Draw
4.2%
Away Sirius
95.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Malmö FF
-0.05%
Draw
-2.21%
Sirius
+2.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.1
45.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Malmö FF
Sirius
Power Score
22.1
45.18
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Sirius — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF Sirius

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sirius

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sirius
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.35
41.51
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.51
30.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Malmö FF -1.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Sirius +1.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
Sirius
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sirius
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Malmö FF Sirius
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Malmö FF Sirius
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
Sirius
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Malmö FF
vs
Sirius
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Malmö FF Sirius
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Malmö FF 0.33
Sirius 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Malmö FF Sirius
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Malmö FF 0.08
Sirius 0.04
Malmö FF
Sirius
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MAL had peak pressure around 45'.
  • MAL started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
MAL Pressure SIR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MAL reached the top pressure at 45' (72.23).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home
18 matches
Sirius SIR Away
Match Record
12
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
12
Goals
50
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
50
+28
Goal Difference
-28
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Dahlin
Sweden
27 J. Dahlin
J. Larsen
Denmark
17 J. Larsen
B. Kurtulus
Substitution
Sweden
4 B. Kurtulus
C. Rosler
Norway
19 C. Rosler
G. Dal Toé Busanello
Brazil
25 G. Dal Toé Busanello
O. Rosengren
Sweden
7 O. Rosengren
T. Lundbergh
Substitution
Sweden
47 T. Lundbergh
T. Ali
Substitution
Sweden
22 T. Ali
S. Haksabanovic
Substitution
Montenegro
29 S. Haksabanovic
O. Sjöstrand
Substitution
24 O. Sjöstrand
E. Botheim
Norway
20 E. Botheim
D. Celic
Sweden
34 D. Celic
O. Krusnell
Sweden
22 O. Krusnell
T. Anker
Denmark
4 T. Anker
M. Soumah
Guinea
2 M. Soumah
H. Castegren
Sweden
5 H. Castegren
M. Lindberg
Denmark
6 M. Lindberg
C. Nildén
Substitution
Sweden
21 C. Nildén
I. Bjerkebo
Substitution
Sweden
11 I. Bjerkebo
M. Heier
Sweden
10 M. Heier
J. Persson
Substitution
Sweden
7 J. Persson
R. Ure
Scotland
9 R. Ure

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 23, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 4 · Regular Season
Stadium
Malmö Stadion
Capacity
22500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kristoffer Karlsson
Andreas Svensson
Marcus Lundgren
Adi Aganovic

Statistics

Possession
MAL
55%
SIR
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 9
46 Dangerous attacks 37
57 Possession 43
4 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 17
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

23 Throwins 22
7 Goal Kicks 11
30 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
23 Dribble Attempts 19
7 Successful Dribbles 5
5 Substitutions 3
1 Injuries 1
9 Goal Attempts 7
120 Ball Safe 114
1 Assists 2

Attacking

99 Attacks 71

Possession

83 Successful Passes Percentage 84
472 Passes 352
24 Successful Long Passes 21
52 Long Passes 45
393 Successful Passes 294
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
13 Key Passes 11

Defensive

55 Duels Won 50
1 Saves 3
26 Tackles 21
9 Interceptions 8

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 13
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

17 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

27
Johan Dahlin
Johan Dahlin Goalkeeper
5.99
4
Bleon Kurtulus
Bleon Kurtulus Defender
6.59
5
Andrej Djuric
Andrej Djuric
Defender20'
6.24
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Defender
6.79
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
7.13
25
Busanello
Busanello Defender
6.74
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
7.58
22
Taha Ali
Taha Ali Midfielder
6.83
23
N. Åstrand John
N. Åstrand John
Defender78'
6.38
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand Midfielder
6.9
32
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Daníel Gudjohnsen
Attacker68'
6.56
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Midfielder
7.14
8
Arnór Sigurdsson
Arnór Sigurdsson
Midfielder78'
6.51
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder
6.71
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar
Midfielder46'
6.48
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
7.1
Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

34
David Celic
David Celic Goalkeeper
6.95
2
Mohamed Soumah
Mohamed Soumah Defender
7.42
4
Tobias Anker
Tobias Anker Defender
7.71
5
Henrik Castegren
Henrik Castegren Defender
7.19
22
Oscar Krusnell
Oscar Krusnell Defender
6.98
6
Marcus Lindberg
Marcus Lindberg Midfielder
6.92
7
Joakim Persson
Joakim Persson Midfielder
6.44
17
Neo Jönsson
Neo Jönsson
Attacker58'
6.6
10
Melker Heier
Melker Heier Midfielder
6.81
11
Isak Bjerkebo
Isak Bjerkebo Midfielder
7.64
20
Victor Ekstrom
Victor Ekstrom
Defender86'
7.16
21
Charlie Nildén
Charlie Nildén Midfielder
6.66
24
Victor Svensson
Victor Svensson
Midfielder58'
6.69
9
Robbie Ure
Robbie Ure Attacker
7.33

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Neo Jönsson
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Victor Ekstrom → Isak Bjerkebo
8th Substitution
Event
N. Åstrand John → Taha Ali
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Arnór Sigurdsson → Sead Haksabanovic
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Adrian Skogmar
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
77'
Event
Daníel Gudjohnsen → Oscar Sjöstrand
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Adrian Skogmar
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
65'
Event
Robbie Ure
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
Event
Isak Bjerkebo
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
58'
Event
Victor Svensson → Charlie Nildén
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Neo Jönsson → Joakim Persson
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Melker Heier
Penalty disallowed
Event
Sead Haksabanovic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
55'
Event
Adrian Skogmar → Theodor Lundbergh
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Otto Rosengren
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
45+3'
Event
Joakim Persson
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Andrej Djuric → Bleon Kurtulus
1st Substitution
20'
13'
Event
Mohamed Soumah
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Sirius's 2-3 triumph over Malmö FF stands as a testament to their superior execution on the day, overcoming 43% possession with ruthless efficiency. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they weathered the storm of a home comeback before sealing the points with composure. This victory reinforces Sirius as the stronger outfit, with the minimal 4.4% deviation confirming the result's legitimacy absent any xG insights. Market alignment validated pre-game signals, while clean disciplinary record preserved tactical purity. Malmö's possession edge exposed conversion woes, propelling Sirius toward crucial momentum in the standings.