Malmö FF vs Elfsborg preview

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Malmö Stadion Sun, 26 Jul - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
Malmö FFMAL
1 2
ElfsborgELF
Full Time Sun, 26 Jul 2:30 PM
Round 14 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal
M. Kamara - 34'
Malte Frejd Pålsson 73' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

In a surprising turn of events, Malmö FF faced Elfsborg and suffered a 1-2 defeat at home. The halftime score stood at 1-2, indicating an early lead for the visitors. Malmö FF dominated possession with 61 percent but could not convert it into a victory. Their expected goals stood at 0.92 against Elfsborg's 0.85, showing a slight edge that did not translate to the scoreboard. A red card issued to the home team further complicated matters, leading to a distortion in the game's flow. Elfsborg, despite lower possession, capitalized on opportunities to secure the win. The stronger team on paper failed to overcome the challenges posed by the numerical disadvantage. This match demonstrated how single events can shift the balance in competitive fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Elfsborg showed significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final result was not aligned with the xG values of 0.92 to 0.85.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was consistent with market alignment indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations favored Malmö FF slightly despite the 1-2 defeat.
  • Event impact: The red card to Malmö FF had a notable event impact on the match.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected the second half adjustments significantly.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Karlsson
K. Karlsson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Culum
M. Culum
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Spahić
A. Spahić
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Karlsson
P. Karlsson
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Malmö FF G. Helstrup
G. Helstrup
VS
Elfsborg B. Hamberg
B. Hamberg
1.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kalmar Rank: 52 D
IFK Göteborg Rank: 56 W
Degerfors Rank: 47 W
Halmstad Rank: 46 W
Västerås SK Rank: 54 L
Hammarby Rank: 70 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sirius Rank: 68 L
GAIS Rank: 62 L
Hammarby Rank: 66 L
Örgryte Rank: 43 D
Häcken Rank: 63 D
Mjällby Rank: 69 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 1
1

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.16
59.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Malmö FF
Elfsborg
Power Score
64.16
59.1
League Position
9
6
Global Rank
433
585

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Elfsborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Malmö FF Elfsborg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Elfsborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Malmö FF ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Elfsborg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.64
29.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.23
21.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Malmö FF -0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Elfsborg +0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Malmö FF
Elfsborg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Malmö FF
vs
Elfsborg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Malmö FF Elfsborg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
13%
19%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.12 vs -0.16
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Malmö FF Elfsborg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
19%
13%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.16 vs -0.12
Malmö FF
Elfsborg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Malmö FF
vs
Elfsborg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Malmö FF Elfsborg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Malmö FF 0.16
Elfsborg 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Malmö FF Elfsborg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Malmö FF 0.04
Elfsborg 0.02
Malmö FF
Elfsborg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MAL had peak pressure around 91'.
  • MAL started the game with stronger pressure.
MAL Pressure ELF Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MAL reached the top pressure at 91' (72.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Malmö FF MAL Home
4 matches
Elfsborg ELF Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
7
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-27T00:02:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 26, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 14 · Regular Season
Stadium
Malmö Stadion
Capacity
22500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kristoffer Karlsson
Mehmet Culum
Almira Spahić
Pontus Karlsson

Statistics

Possession
MAL
58%
ELF
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 4
64 Dangerous attacks 48
61 Possession 39
5 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

75 Ball Safe 78
6 Goal Kicks 10
5 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 10
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 2
0 Injuries 1
16 Dribble Attempts 11
7 Successful Dribbles 3
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27

Attacking

110 Attacks 74

Possession

37 Long Passes 44
587 Passes 388
516 Successful Passes 327
88 Successful Passes Percentage 84
8 Key Passes 7
24 Successful Long Passes 19
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

2 Saves 0
11 Tackles 16
9 Interceptions 16
36 Duels Won 42

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 9
7 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 5
18 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

1
Robin Olsen
Robin Olsen (C) Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Andrej Djuric
Andrej Djuric Defender
6.98
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen Defender
7.16
2
Johan Karlsson
Johan Karlsson
Defender84'
6.45
23
N. Åstrand John
N. Åstrand John Defender
6.81
25
Busanello
Busanello
Defender69'
7.08
44
Malte Frejd Pålsson
Malte Frejd Pålsson Defender
6.19
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
6.93
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic Midfielder
6.68
37
Adrian Skogmar
Adrian Skogmar Midfielder
6.15
45
Anton Sebastian Höög
Anton Sebastian Höög Midfielder
5.93
4
Bleon Kurtulus
Bleon Kurtulus
Defender76'
6.59
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh Midfielder
6.47
39
Isaac Assibu
Isaac Assibu
Attacker46'
6.68
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker
6.52
9
Diego García
Diego García
Attacker69'
6.98
Referee : Kristoffer Karlsson

Starting XI ▼

31
Isak Pettersson
Isak Pettersson Goalkeeper
6.42
4
Thomas Isherwood
Thomas Isherwood Defender
6.5
8
Sebastian Holmén
Sebastian Holmén (C) Defender
6.47
6
R. Wikström
R. Wikström
Defender21'
7.14
16
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Defender
6.72
2
Rufai Mohammed
Rufai Mohammed
Defender85'
6.57
23
Niklas Hult
Niklas Hult Defender
7.06
9
Arbër Zeneli
Arbër Zeneli Midfielder
7.9
15
Simon Hedlund
Simon Hedlund
Midfielder76'
6.57
10
S. Olsson
S. Olsson Midfielder
6.7
18
J. Magnússon
J. Magnússon Midfielder
7.52
19
Julius Beck
Julius Beck Midfielder
6.82
29
M. Kamara
M. Kamara Midfielder
7.96
28
Frode Aronsson
Frode Aronsson
Defender85'
6.62
21
Leo Östman
Leo Östman Attacker
6.57
24
F. Ihler
F. Ihler
Attacker76'
6.65

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Isak Pettersson
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Frode Aronsson → M. Kamara
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Rufai Mohammed → Alexander Jensen
10th Substitution
Event
Johan Karlsson → Jens Stryger Larsen
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Andrej Djuric
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Busanello
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Sead Haksabanovic
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
Event
Bleon Kurtulus → Anton Sebastian Höög
7th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Simon Hedlund → Arbër Zeneli
5th Substitution
76'
Event
F. Ihler → Leo Östman
6th Substitution
Event
Malte Frejd Pålsson
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
73'
Event
Busanello → N. Åstrand John
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Diego García → Erik Botheim
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Jens Stryger Larsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
61'
Event
Isaac Assibu → Theodor Lundbergh
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
M. Kamara
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Jens Stryger Larsen
Header / 2nd Goal
22'
21'
Event
R. Wikström → Sebastian Holmén 
1st Substitution
5'
Event
Arbër Zeneli
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Corner Corner
Corner
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Frode Aronsson Right Footed Shot Saved
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Diego Garcia Campos Right Footed Shot Missed
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello Right Footed Shot Blocked
87
Corner Corner
Corner
85
Corner Corner
Corner
85
Update Update
On Rufai Mohammed，Off Alexander Jensen
84
Update Update
On Johan Karlsson，Off Jens Stryger Larsen
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
77
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Isaac Assibu Head Shot Missed
76
Update Update
On Simon Hedlund，Off Arber Zeneli
76
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Isaac Assibu Head Shot Missed
76
Update Update
On Bleon Kurtulus，Off Anton Hoog
73
Red Card Red Card Important
Red Card
72
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Diego Garcia Campos Head Shot Post
71
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Otto Rosengren Right Footed Shot Blocked
70
Corner Corner
Corner
69
Update Update
On Gabriel Dal Toe Busanello，Off Noah Astrand
69
Update Update
On Diego Garcia Campos，Off Erik Botheim
66
Corner Corner
Corner
65
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Momoh Kamara Left Footed Shot Saved
64
Corner Corner
Corner
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow Card
56
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Rasmus Wikstrom Head Shot Missed
56
Corner Corner
Corner
46
Update Update
On Isaac Assibu，Off Theodor Lundbergh
43
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Andrej Djuric Head Shot Blocked
43
Corner Corner
Corner
43
Corner Corner
Corner
43
Corner Corner
Corner
42
Corner Corner
Corner
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Momoh Kamara Left Footed Shot Goal
34
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal - Momoh Kamara 1-2，Assist：Arber Zeneli
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Niklas Hult Right Footed Shot Missed
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 1-2
24
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Anton Hoog Left Footed Shot Blocked
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Jens Stryger Larsen Head Shot Goal
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 1-1
21
Update Update
On Rasmus Wikstrom，Off Sebastian Holmen
21
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Momoh Kamara Left Footed Shot Missed
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot - Arber Zeneli Right Footed Shot Goal
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal 0-1
1
Update Update
Kick-off! Referee：Kristoffer Karlsson

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Malmö FF 1-2 Elfsborg. Structural assessment: Elfsborg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.