Lugano vs Basel preview

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadio di Cornaredo Sun, 17 May - 2:30 PM
Super League
LuganoLugano
4 0
BaselBAS
Full Time Sun, 17 May 2:30 PM
Round 38 Championship Round
Kevin Behrens - 10', 36'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Lugano hosted Basel in a league match where the home side achieved a comprehensive 4-0 win. The halftime score stood at 2-0 in favor of Lugano. Throughout the game, Lugano maintained 53 percent possession compared to Basel's 47 percent. No red cards were shown to players from either team. Lugano was identified as the stronger team prior to the match and fulfilled that role by securing the victory. The deviation from pre-match projections was significant at 38 percent with Lugano being the team that exceeded expectations. Market alignment was confirmed as true for the outcome. Efficiency shifts remained in line with anticipated patterns based on team strengths. The absence of expected goals data limited deeper analysis of performance metrics. Second half adjustments were minimal as the lead was comfortable.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lugano recorded a significant 38 percent structural deviation as the designated stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team strength assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed because expected goals data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The 4-0 result proved consistent with true market alignment for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing expected goals figures.
  • Event impact: Lugano's four goals created the decisive event impact on the final scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no red card distortion in the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
U. Schnyder
U. Schnyder
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Aschwanden
L. Aschwanden
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Piccolo
L. Piccolo
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Zürcher
M. Zürcher
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Lugano M. Croci-Torti
M. Croci-Torti
VS
Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sion Rank: 65 D
St. Gallen Rank: 64 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 W
Thun Rank: 66 W
Zürich Rank: 50 W
Thun Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Gallen Rank: 65 L
Young Boys Rank: 62 L
Thun Rank: 65 W
Sion Rank: 61 L
Thun Rank: 62 L
Young Boys Rank: 64 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 13 - 18
18

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lugano
61.98%
Draw
20.12%
Away Basel
17.9%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lugano
-32.89%
Draw
+16.85%
Basel
+16.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.71
59.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lugano
Basel
Power Score
65.71
59.8
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
308
486

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lugano — Opponent-weighted form score
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lugano Basel

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lugano

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.42
34.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.47
41.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lugano +0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Basel -0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Basel
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lugano ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lugano Basel
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lugano Basel
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lugano
Basel
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lugano
vs
Basel
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lugano Basel
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lugano 0.51
Basel 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lugano Basel
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lugano 0.00
Basel 0.10
Lugano
Basel
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lugano had peak pressure around 60'.
  • Lugano started the game with stronger pressure.
Lugano Pressure BAS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lugano reached the top pressure at 60' (68.93).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lugano Lugano Home
42 matches
Basel BAS Away
Match Record
11
Wins
18
13
Draws
13
18
Losses
11
Goals
51
Goals Scored
78
78
Goals Conceded
51
-27
Goal Difference
+27
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T00:02:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
May 17, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 38 · Championship Round
Stadium
Stadio di Cornaredo
Capacity
6390
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Urs Schnyder
Livio Aschwanden
Luca Piccolo
Marco Zürcher

Statistics

Possession
Lugano
53%
BAS
47%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
10 Shots 6
39 Dangerous attacks 44
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 5
8 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 9
11 Throwins 18
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
2 Assists 0
8 Goal Kicks 5
6 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5
75 Ball Safe 53
3 Injuries 0
13 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

54 Attacks 101

Possession

22 Successful Long Passes 16
89 Successful Passes Percentage 89
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
399 Successful Passes 344
43 Long Passes 32
450 Passes 387
14 Key Passes 10

Defensive

15 Tackles 15
8 Interceptions 2
6 Saves 6

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 21
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

12 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Urs Schnyder

Starting XI ▼

16
David von Ballmoos
David von Ballmoos Goalkeeper
3
Hannes Delcroix
Hannes Delcroix Defender
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
Antonios Papadopoulos Defender
17
Lukas Mai
Lukas Mai Defender
7
Pablo Acebal
Pablo Acebal Midfielder
21
Yanis Cimignani
Yanis Cimignani Midfielder
24
Elias Pihlström
Elias Pihlström
Attacker80'
25
Uran Bislimi
Uran Bislimi Midfielder
23
Gjan Ajdin
Gjan Ajdin
Midfielder86'
29
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud Midfielder
14
Ahmed Kendouci
Ahmed Kendouci
Midfielder79'
46
Mattia Zanotti
Mattia Zanotti Midfielder
11
Renato Steffen
Renato Steffen Attacker
10
Mattia Bottani
Mattia Bottani
Attacker59'
91
Kevin Behrens
Kevin Behrens Attacker
2
9
Georgios Koutsias
Georgios Koutsias
Attacker46'
Referee : Urs Schnyder

Starting XI ▼

13
Mirko Salvi
Mirko Salvi Goalkeeper
4
Becir Omeragic
Becir Omeragic Defender
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
27
Kevin Rüegg
Kevin Rüegg Defender
6
Keigo Tsunemoto
Keigo Tsunemoto
Defender46'
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid Defender
8
Koba Koindredi
Koba Koindredi Midfielder
14
Andrej Bacanin
Andrej Bacanin Midfielder
10
Xherdan Shaqiri
Xherdan Shaqiri
Midfielder62'
22
Léo Leroy
Léo Leroy Midfielder
18
Julien Duranville
Julien Duranville Attacker
19
Marin Soticek
Marin Soticek
Midfielder30'
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah Attacker
29
Moussa Cissé
Moussa Cissé
Defender62'
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti Attacker
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto
Attacker62'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gjan Ajdin → Uran Bislimi
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Mattia Zanotti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Elias Pihlström → Yanis Cimignani
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Ahmed Kendouci → Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
8th Substitution
79'
62'
Event
Moussa Cissé → Ibrahim Salah
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Giacomo Koloto → Albian Ajeti
6th Substitution
62'
Event
Xherdan Shaqiri   → Andrej Bacanin
7th Substitution
Event
Mattia Bottani → Renato Steffen
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Georgios Koutsias
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
56'
Event
Renato Steffen
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
52'
Event
Georgios Koutsias → Kevin Behrens
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Keigo Tsunemoto  → Kevin Rüegg
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Andrej Bacanin
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kevin Behrens
Header / 2nd Goal
36'
Event
Antonios Papadopoulos
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
30'
30'
Event
Marin Soticek → Julien Duranville
1st Substitution
27'
Event
Kevin Rüegg
Persistent fouling / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Kevin Behrens
Header / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

7
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Behrens attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Julien Duranville takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Uran Bislimi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Behrens scores with a header.
5
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Salah takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Becir Omeragic's header is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Becir Omeragic's header is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Koloto takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
80
Update Update
Elias Pihlstrom is on, and Yanis Cimignani is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Leo Leroy takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Bottani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Koba Koindredi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Marin Soticek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Georgios Koutsias takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Lars Lukas Mai attempts a header but misses the shot.
86
Update Update
Gjan Ajdin comes on for Uran Bislimi.
63
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Xherdan Shaqiri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Giacomo Koloto comes on for Albian Ajeti.
59
Update Update
Mattia Bottani comes on for Renato Steffen.
58
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Leo Leroy with his right foot misses the target.
62
Update Update
Xherdan Shaqiri is on, and Andrej Bacanin is off.
66
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Cimignani's left-footed shot is saved.
79
Update Update
Ahmed Kendouci is on, and Hadj Mahmoud is off.
56
Attempt Attempt
Lars Lukas Mai attempts a header but misses the shot.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Georgios Koutsias scores with a right-footed shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Zanotti's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Renato Steffen's left-footed shot is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Hadj Mahmoud's right-footed shot is saved.
46
Update Update
Georgios Koutsias comes on for Kevin Behrens.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Renato Steffen scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Keigo Tsunemoto is on, and Kevin Ruegg is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Salah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kevin Behrens scores, making it 2-0.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ezgjan Alioski takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Uran Bislimi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Bacanin's header is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Andrej Bacanin's header is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Leo Leroy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Moussa Cisse comes on for Ibrahim Salah.
29
Update Update
Marin Soticek comes on for Julien Duranville.
28
Attempt Attempt
Uran Bislimi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonios Papadopoulos receives a yellow card.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Ruegg receives a yellow card.
21
Attempt Attempt
Antonios Papadopoulos takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
20
Attempt Attempt
Uran Bislimi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Behrens scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

Lugano controlled the contest from the opening stages and converted their halftime advantage into a clear 4-0 result. Possession figures showed only a modest edge for the home side yet proved sufficient to dominate proceedings. The significant deviation aligned with the stronger team's capabilities and confirmed market alignment without any disciplinary interference. Absence of expected goals metrics restricted quantitative performance review but the scoreline reflected consistent efficiency throughout both halves. Minimal second-half adjustments were required once the lead was established. Overall the outcome matched pre-match team evaluations and demonstrated Lugano's superiority on the day.