Larne vs FC Iberia 1999 preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa League, Europe
Inver Park Tue, 4 Aug - 7:00 PM
Europa League
LarneLARN
0 – 0
FC Iberia 1999IBE
Full Time Tue, 4 Aug 7:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Larne hosted FC Iberia 1999 in the first leg of a two-legged tie and the match concluded 0-0. Both teams were level at halftime with no goals scored. Larne recorded 35 percent possession while FC Iberia 1999 held 65 percent. No red cards were shown to either side. The stronger team according to pre-match indicators was Larne yet the result was a draw. A significant deviation of 70.3 percent was recorded with Larne as the affected side. The outcome was not aligned with market expectations and efficiency remained in line with prior patterns. No xG values were available for analysis.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A significant 70.3 percent deviation was recorded with Larne as the affected team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with established patterns.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to missing metrics.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome was not aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be formed because no data was recorded.
  • Event impact: The 0-0 draw in leg one leaves the tie level for the return fixture.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued and therefore no distortion occurred.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Al Emara
M. Al Emara
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
T. Valjakka
T. Valjakka
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Lamppu
M. Lamppu
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
P. Simani
P. Simani
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Larne G. Haveron
G. Haveron
VS
FC Iberia 1999 A. Demchenko
A. Demchenko
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Larne
36.69%
Draw
29.65%
Away FC Iberia 1999
33.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Larne
+31.84%
Draw
-60.65%
FC Iberia 1999
+28.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30
26.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Larne
FC Iberia 1999
Power Score
30
26.67
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Larne — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Iberia 1999 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Larne FC Iberia 1999

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Larne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Iberia 1999

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Larne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Iberia 1999
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
44.57
8.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
8.46
44.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Larne +1.87 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Iberia 1999 -1.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Larne
FC Iberia 1999
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Larne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Iberia 1999
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Larne FC Iberia 1999
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Larne FC Iberia 1999
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Larne
FC Iberia 1999
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Larne
vs
FC Iberia 1999
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Larne FC Iberia 1999
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Larne 0.25
FC Iberia 1999 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Larne FC Iberia 1999
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Larne 0.00
FC Iberia 1999 0.00
Larne
FC Iberia 1999
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LARN had peak pressure around 6'.
  • LARN started the game with stronger pressure.
LARN Pressure IBE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LARN reached the top pressure at 6' (50.38).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 04, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Inver Park
Capacity
6000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mohammad Al Emara
Turkka Valjakka
Mika Lamppu
Peiman Simani

Statistics

Possession
LARN
52%
IBE
48%

Top Statistics

9 Shots 1
52 Dangerous attacks 30
35 Possession 65
4 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 2
26 Throwins 22

Attacking

105 Attacks 102

Defensive

3 Saves 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
15 Fouls 19

Lineup

Referee : Mohammad Al Emara

Starting XI ▼

1
Rohan Ferguson
Rohan Ferguson Goalkeeper
6.5
3
Matt Ridley
Matt Ridley Defender
6.5
4
Aaron Donnelly
Aaron Donnelly Defender
6.5
11
Sean Graham
Sean Graham Defender
6.5
23
Tomas Cosgrove
Tomas Cosgrove (C) Defender
6.49
6
Chris Gallagher
Chris Gallagher Midfielder
6.45
15
Ronan Doherty
Ronan Doherty Midfielder
6.5
47
James Simpson
James Simpson
Midfielder75'
6.5
25
Dylan Sloan
Dylan Sloan Midfielder
6.5
22
Jordan McEneff
Jordan McEneff
Midfielder65'
6.5
26
Dan Bent
Dan Bent Midfielder
6.5
30
Matthew Lusty
Matthew Lusty Attacker
6.5
19
Kevin O'Hara
Kevin O'Hara
Attacker75'
6.5
45
Montel Gibson
Montel Gibson Attacker
6.5
9
Paul O'Neill
Paul O'Neill
Attacker65'
6.5
Referee : Mohammad Al Emara

Starting XI ▼

31
Giorgi Makaridze
Giorgi Makaridze Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Vahid Selimovic
Vahid Selimovic Defender
6.5
5
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava (C) Defender
6.49
25
Aleksandre Amisulashvili
Aleksandre Amisulashvili Defender
6.5
40
Giorgi Kobuladze
Giorgi Kobuladze Defender
6.5
6
Nikoloz Dadiani
Nikoloz Dadiani Midfielder
6.5
8
Bakar Kardava
Bakar Kardava Midfielder
6.5
10
Zviad Natchkebia
Zviad Natchkebia Midfielder
6.5
11
Andria Bartishvili
Andria Bartishvili Midfielder
6.5
9
Amiran Dzagania
Amiran Dzagania
Attacker59'
6.5
19
Nika Sikharulashvili
Nika Sikharulashvili Midfielder
6.5
27
Giorgi Kutsia
Giorgi Kutsia Midfielder
6.5
14
Ibrahim Alhassan
Ibrahim Alhassan
Midfielder78'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
78'
Event
Ibrahim Alhassan → Giorgi Kutsia
6th Substitution
Event
Kevin O'Hara → Matthew Lusty
4th Substitution
75'
Event
James Simpson → Ronan Doherty
5th Substitution
75'
66'
Event
Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava 
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jordan McEneff → Dylan Sloan
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Paul O'Neill → Montel Gibson
3rd Substitution
65'
59'
Event
Amiran Dzagania → Andria Bartishvili
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Chris Gallagher
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Tomas Cosgrove 
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
11'

Match Commentary

89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Abdullahi Ibrahim Alhassan comes on for Giorgi Kutsia.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: James Simpson comes on for Ronan Doherty.
75
Update Update
On comes Kevin O'Hara, and off goes Matthew Lusty.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava.
65
Update Update
On Paul O'Neill, off Montel Gibson.
65
Update Update
Jordan McEneff is on, and Dylan Sloan is off.
59
Update Update
Amiran Dzagania replaces Andria Bartishvili.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Chris Gallagher receives a yellow card.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Tomas Cosgrove.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Mohammad Al Emara.

CONCLUSION

The 0-0 result in the opening leg reflects a controlled performance by the visitors who dominated possession yet created limited clear opportunities. Larne maintained a compact structure that limited space in central areas and prevented any breakthrough. With no goals and no dismissals the match remained balanced throughout both halves. The significant deviation noted for the home side highlights a departure from typical indicators without altering the final scoreline. Efficiency staying in line suggests both teams executed core defensive tasks as anticipated. The absence of xG data restricts deeper evaluation of chance quality but the possession split indicates the away side held territorial control. This leaves the aggregate tie open ahead of the second leg.