Livingston vs Aberdeen preview

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tony Macaroni Arena Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Premiership
LivingstonLIV
AberdeenABE
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Round 35 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

In the Scottish Premiership's 2nd Phase at Tony Macaroni Arena, Livingston welcomes Aberdeen during the 2025/2026 season. The hosts sit 12th in the domestic standings, grappling with a power score of 52.61, while visitors Aberdeen occupy 8th place with a stronger 58.52 rating and a 5.9-point advantage. Form metrics tilt slightly toward Aberdeen at 15.61 compared to Livingston's 13.5, signaling recent momentum for the away side. No recent outings or detailed form records are available, heightening anticipation. Set piece analysis lacks xG data, relying on low-confidence proxies for both teams. Livingston seeks home comfort to upset the hierarchy, but Aberdeen's superior overall strength positions them as favorites in this mid-table tussle. Efficiency and transition elements remain unexplored due to absent metrics, promising a tactical showdown where raw power may prevail.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Aberdeen possesses a 5.9-point power advantage over Livingston with scores of 58.52 versus 52.61.
  • Form: Aberdeen leads in form scoring 15.61 to Livingston's 13.5.
  • Squad: Livingston holds 12th in league position while Aberdeen ranks 8th domestically.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data provided for either team.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable in current dataset.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies as xG unavailable for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent due to add-on not enabled.
  • Market: Livingston 33.9% (Δ-0.8%) | Draw 27.1% (Δ+0%) | Aberdeen 39% (Δ+0.8%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Livingston M. Bartley
M. Bartley
VS
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
0.54
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Hearts Rank: 73 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 L
Hibernian Rank: 67 D
St. Mirren Rank: 57 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hibernian Rank: 69 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Falkirk Rank: 64 D
Celtic Rank: 78 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 15
15
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Livingston
33.86%
Draw
27.14%
Away Aberdeen
39%

Movement

Changes since opening
Livingston
-0.76%
Draw
0%
Aberdeen
+0.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
52.61
58.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Livingston
Aberdeen
Power Score
52.61
58.52
League Position
12
8
Global Rank
650
525

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Livingston — Opponent-weighted form score
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Livingston Aberdeen

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Livingston LIV Home
26 matches
Aberdeen ABE Away
Match Record
4
Wins
15
7
Draws
7
15
Losses
4
Goals
20
Goals Scored
44
44
Goals Conceded
20
-24
Goal Difference
+24
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:06:05+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
J. Prior
28 J. Prior
B. Kabongolo
23 B. Kabongolo
D. Wilson
27 D. Wilson
R. McGowan
5 R. McGowan
D. Finlayson
19 D. Finlayson
M. Sylla
24 M. Sylla
S. Arfield
37 S. Arfield
C. Montaño Castillo
26 C. Montaño Castillo
L. Smith
15 L. Smith
S. May
17 S. May
J. Nouble
7 J. Nouble
D. Mitov
1 D. Mitov
G. Molloy
21 G. Molloy
L. Morrison
23 L. Morrison
J. Milne
22 J. Milne
M. Frame
3 M. Frame
S. Armstrong
16 S. Armstrong
A. Aremu
32 A. Aremu
A. Jensen
28 A. Jensen
L. Cameron
25 L. Cameron
K. Nisbet
15 K. Nisbet
T. Olusanya
20 T. Olusanya

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 35 · 2nd Phase
Stadium
Tony Macaroni Arena
Capacity
9672
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Calum Scott
David Dunne
Ross Nelson
Gavin Duncan

Expected Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

28
Jérôme Prior
Jérôme Prior Goalkeeper
6.85
19
Danny Finlayson
Danny Finlayson Midfielder
6.76
26
Cristian Montano
Cristian Montano Midfielder
6.7
7
Joel Nouble
Joel Nouble Attacker
6.89
17
Stevie May
Stevie May Attacker
6.82
27
Danny Wilson
Danny Wilson Centre Back
6.56
5
Ryan McGowan
Ryan McGowan Left Back
6.62
15
Lewis Smith
Lewis Smith Attacking Midfield
6.8
37
Scott Arfield
Scott Arfield Central Midfield
6.58
24
Mohamad Sylla
Mohamad Sylla Central Midfield
6.79
23
Brooklyn Kabongolo
Brooklyn Kabongolo Right Back
6.85
Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.83
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame Midfielder
6.76
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
6.71
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.86
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
6.54
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Centre Back
6.58
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Central Midfield
6.97
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Left Back
6.73
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Right Back
6.74
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron Attacking Midfield
6.58
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Central Midfield
6.86

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Aberdeen holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Aberdeen a 5.9-point edge. External projection is Livingston 33.6%, draw 27.2%, and Aberdeen 39.3%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.