Linfield vs Nõmme Kalju preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Windsor Park Thu, 16 Jul - 6:45 PM
Europa Conference League
LinfieldLinfield
2 – 2
Nõmme KaljuKAL
Full Time Thu, 16 Jul 6:45 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 3
Ethan McGee - 11'
Goal
|
Goal
Mihhail Orlov - 90+2'
Ethan McGee 26' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Linfield 2–2 Nõmme Kalju. The match ended in a draw. Linfield showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 38%–62%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Linfield 2-2 Nõmme Kalju. Linfield showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Karlsen
J. Karlsen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
M. Markus
M. Markus
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Cortzen
D. Cortzen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Svendsen
F. Svendsen
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Linfield D. Healy
D. Healy
VS
Nõmme Kalju N. Andreev
N. Andreev
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nõmme Kalju Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Linfield Rank: 48 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Linfield
61.56%
Draw
22.68%
Away Nõmme Kalju
15.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Linfield
+56.24%
Draw
-65.05%
Nõmme Kalju
+8.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Linfield
Nõmme Kalju
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Linfield — Opponent-weighted form score
Nõmme Kalju — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Linfield Nõmme Kalju

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Linfield

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nõmme Kalju

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Linfield ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nõmme Kalju
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.53
24.92
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.92
30.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Linfield +0.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Nõmme Kalju -0.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Linfield
Nõmme Kalju
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Linfield ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nõmme Kalju
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Linfield Nõmme Kalju
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Linfield Nõmme Kalju
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Linfield
Nõmme Kalju
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Linfield
vs
Nõmme Kalju
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Linfield Nõmme Kalju
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Linfield 0.17
Nõmme Kalju 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Linfield Nõmme Kalju
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Linfield 0.04
Nõmme Kalju 0.04
Linfield
Nõmme Kalju
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Linfield had peak pressure around 10'.
  • Linfield started the game with stronger pressure.
Linfield Pressure KAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Linfield reached the top pressure at 10' (52.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Linfield Linfield Home
1 matches
Nõmme Kalju KAL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:03:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 3
Stadium
Windsor Park
Capacity
3000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jacob Karlsen
Martin Markus
Daniel Cortzen
Frederik Svendsen

Statistics

Possession
Linfield
46%
KAL
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Shots 4
52 Dangerous attacks 49
38 Possession 62
10 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

63 Ball Safe 83
0 Penalties 1
8 Goal Attempts 11
2 Substitutions 3
15 Throwins 14
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

79 Attacks 93

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Jacob Karlsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Chris Johns
Chris Johns Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Ryan Nolan
Ryan Nolan Defender
6.04
15
Ben Hall
Ben Hall Defender
6.05
27
Ethan McGee
Ethan McGee Defender
5.43
33
Darragh Leahy
Darragh Leahy Defender
6.05
5
Chris Shields
Chris Shields (C) Midfielder
6.27
7
Kirk Millar
Kirk Millar Midfielder
6.27
8
Kyle McClean
Kyle McClean Midfielder
6.27
10
Adam Frizzell
Adam Frizzell Midfielder
6.48
9
Kieran Offord
Kieran Offord
Attacker46'
6.82
16
Dylan Wells
Dylan Wells Attacker
6.46
34
Dane McCullough
Dane McCullough
Defender46'
6.26
29
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Matthew Fitzpatrick Attacker
6.48
Referee : Jacob Karlsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Henri Perk
Henri Perk (C) Goalkeeper
5.88
20
Modou Tambedou
Modou Tambedou Defender
6.05
22
Aleksandr Nikolajev
Aleksandr Nikolajev Defender
6.05
46
Roko Vukušić
Roko Vukušić Defender
6.16
50
Maksim Podholjuzin
Maksim Podholjuzin Defender
6.05
78
Danyl Mashchenko
Danyl Mashchenko Defender
6.05
88
Daniil Sotsugov
Daniil Sotsugov
Defender73'
6.5
8
Oleksandr Musolitin
Oleksandr Musolitin Midfielder
6.21
17
Enrique Esono
Enrique Esono Midfielder
6.27
11
Mihhail Orlov
Mihhail Orlov
Attacker63'
6.86
21
Tiago Baptista
Tiago Baptista Midfielder
6.27
10
Nikita Ivanov
Nikita Ivanov
Midfielder73'
6.5
26
Rommi Siht
Rommi Siht Midfielder
6.27
59
Bogdan Vastsuk
Bogdan Vastsuk Midfielder
6.27

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Mihhail Orlov
Field Goal / 4th Goal
73'
Event
Nikita Ivanov → Tiago Baptista
4th Substitution
73'
Event
Daniil Sotsugov → Danyl Mashchenko
5th Substitution
Event
Ryan Nolan
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
63'
Event
Mihhail Orlov → Enrique Esono
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Oleksandr Musolitin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kieran Offord
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
49'
Event
Dane McCullough → Dylan Wells
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Kieran Offord → Adam Frizzell
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Oleksandr Musolitin
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
27'
Event
Oleksandr Musolitin
Goalkeeper save
Event
Ethan McGee
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
26'
Event
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
Event
Ethan McGee
Field Goal / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-2.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
Nikita Ivanov comes on for Tiago Baptista.
73
Update Update
Danyl Mashchenko is replaced by Daniil Sotsugov.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Nolan receives a yellow card.
63
Substitution Substitution
Mihhail Orlov is substituted off for Enrique Esono, with Lotar Eyang coming on.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Oleksandr Musolitin.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Kieran Offord replaces Adam Frizzell.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oleksandr Musolitin scores, making it 1-1.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
27
Attempt Attempt
Penalty saved.
26
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Darragh Leahy scores to make it 1-0.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jacob Karlsen.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Linfield 2-2 Nõmme Kalju. Structural assessment: Linfield exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.