Liepāja vs Dečić preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadions Daugava Thu, 9 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
Liepāja Liepāja
1 0
Dečić Dečić
Full Time Thu, 9 Jul 4:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2
Joseph Oloko Ede - 64'
Goal
|
Marvin Martins 21' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Liepāja 1–0 Dečić. The result saw Liepāja take the points. Liepāja showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 37%–63%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Liepāja 1-0 Dečić. Liepāja showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
B. McMaster
B. McMaster
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
S. Bell
S. Bell
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Doherty
J. Doherty
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Andrews
S. Andrews
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Liepāja V. Vassiljev
V. Vassiljev
VS
Dečić I. Brnović
I. Brnović
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Liepāja
54.9%
Draw
26.28%
Away Dečić
18.82%

Movement

Changes since opening
Liepāja
-39.4%
Draw
+21.22%
Dečić
+18.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Liepāja
Dečić
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Liepāja — Opponent-weighted form score
Dečić — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Liepāja Dečić

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Liepāja

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dečić

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Liepāja ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dečić
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.92
34.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.29
28.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Liepāja — Efficiency Index
vs
Dečić — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Liepāja
Dečić
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Liepāja ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dečić
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Liepāja Dečić
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Liepāja Dečić
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Liepāja
Dečić
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Liepāja
vs
Dečić
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Liepāja Dečić
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Liepāja 0.26
Dečić 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Liepāja Dečić
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Liepāja 0.00
Dečić 0.03
Liepāja
Dečić
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Dečić had peak pressure around 86'.
  • Liepāja started the game with stronger pressure.
Liepāja Pressure Dečić Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Dečić reached the top pressure at 86' (69.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Liepāja Liepāja Home
0 matches
Dečić Dečić Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:53:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Ošs
Latvia
24 D. Ošs
A. Korobenko
Ukraine
28 A. Korobenko
M. Santos Da Graca
Luxembourg
4 (C) M. Santos Da Graca
I. Korotkovs
Latvia
33 I. Korotkovs
B. Straalman
Netherlands
2 B. Straalman
N. Ekou
Ivory Coast
6 N. Ekou
L. Strumia
Argentina
32 L. Strumia
A. Haïdara
Substitution
Mauritania
23 A. Haïdara
K. Leidsman
Substitution
Netherlands
44 K. Leidsman
F. Vieira Cardoso
Substitution
55 F. Vieira Cardoso
J. Oloko Ede
Substitution
Nigeria
18 J. Oloko Ede
D. Radošević
Montenegro
25 D. Radošević
L. Maraš
Montenegro
18 L. Maraš
N. Braunović
Montenegro
29 N. Braunović
L. Ujkaj
Montenegro
17 L. Ujkaj
J. Drešaj
Montenegro
22 (C) J. Drešaj
D. Kontić
Substitution
Montenegro
27 D. Kontić
A. Ćetković
Montenegro
8 A. Ćetković
P. Pavlicevic
Substitution
Montenegro
74 P. Pavlicevic
B. Radusinović
Substitution
Montenegro
32 B. Radusinović
U. Đuranović
Substitution
Montenegro
11 U. Đuranović
M. Gjolaj
Substitution
Montenegro
7 M. Gjolaj

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 09, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2
Stadium
Stadions Daugava
Capacity
5083
Attendance
1960
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ben McMaster
Stephen Bell
J. Doherty
Shane Andrews

Statistics

Possession
Liepāja
41%
Dečić
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
7 Shots 13
34 Dangerous attacks 92
37 Possession 63
2 Corners 10
13 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

84 Ball Safe 79
6 Goal Attempts 14
4 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 28
1 Assists 0
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

92 Attacks 124

Discipline

4 Offsides 5
9 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Ben McMaster

Starting XI ▼

24
Davis Oss
Davis Oss Goalkeeper
6.5
2
Bart Straalman
Bart Straalman Defender
6.5
4
Marvin Martins
Marvin Martins (C) Defender
4.32
33
Ilja Korotkovs
Ilja Korotkovs Defender
6.5
6
Rodolphe Ekou
Rodolphe Ekou Midfielder
6.5
23
Amar Haïdara
Amar Haïdara Midfielder
6.61
7
Abiodun Ogunniyi
Abiodun Ogunniyi
Midfielder80'
6.5
28
Andriy Korobenko
Andriy Korobenko Midfielder
6.5
32
Leonel Strumia
Leonel Strumia Midfielder
6.5
55
Fellipe Cardoso
Fellipe Cardoso Midfielder
6.5
31
Chovanie Amatkarijo
Chovanie Amatkarijo
Midfielder70'
6.5
18
Joseph Oloko Ede
Joseph Oloko Ede Attacker
6.86
9
Ingars Pulis
Ingars Pulis
Attacker70'
6.5
44
Kyvon Leidsman
Kyvon Leidsman Attacker
6.5
35
Vladislavs Sorokins
Vladislavs Sorokins
Defender25'
6.5
Referee : Ben McMaster

Starting XI ▼

25
Danilo Radošević
Danilo Radošević Goalkeeper
6.12
17
Leon Ujkaj
Leon Ujkaj Defender
6.26
18
Lazar Maras
Lazar Maras Defender
6.25
22
Jonathan Dresaj
Jonathan Dresaj (C) Defender
6.26
29
Nikola Braunovic
Nikola Braunovic Defender
6.25
7
Mario Gjolaj
Mario Gjolaj Midfielder
6.37
88
Medo Juković
Medo Juković
Midfielder84'
8
Aleksa Ćetković
Aleksa Ćetković Midfielder
6.37
27
Davor Kontić
Davor Kontić Midfielder
6.37
10
Mark Đokaj
Mark Đokaj
Attacker84'
32
Balša Radusinović
Balša Radusinović Midfielder
6.37
—
Balša Radusinović
72'
74
Petar Pavlicevic
Petar Pavlicevic Midfielder
6.37
14
Aldin Adžović
Aldin Adžović
Midfielder65'
11
Uroš Đuranović
Uroš Đuranović Attacker
6.46
23
Sinisa Stanisavic
Sinisa Stanisavic
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Mark Đokaj → Davor Kontić
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Medo Juković → Mario Gjolaj
9th Substitution
Event
Abiodun Ogunniyi → Amar Haïdara
7th Substitution
80'
72'
Event
Petar Ivanović → Balša Radusinović
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Sinisa Stanisavic → Uroš Đuranović
6th Substitution
Event
Chovanie Amatkarijo → Fellipe Cardoso
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Ingars Pulis → Joseph Oloko Ede
4th Substitution
70'
65'
Event
Aldin Adžović → Petar Pavlicevic
2nd Substitution
Event
Joseph Oloko Ede
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
64'
58'
Event
Lazar Maras
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Davis Oss
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+3'
Event
Vladislavs Sorokins → Kyvon Leidsman
1st Substitution
25'
Event
Marvin Martins
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
21'

Match Commentary

84
Update Update
Medo Jukovic is on, and Mario Gjolaj is off.
84
Substitution Substitution
Mark Djokaj is substituted for Davor Kontic.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Update Update
Petar Ivanović replaces Balsa Radusinovic.
72
Update Update
Sinisa Stanisavic replaces Uros Djuranovic.
70
Update Update
Chovanie Amatkarijo comes on for Fellipe Cardoso.
70
Substitution Substitution
Ingars Pulis is substituted off for Joseph Ede.
65
Update Update
Aldin Adzovic comes on for Petar Pavlicevic.
64
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
37
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
Update Update
Vladislavs Sorokins is on, and Kyvon Leidsman is off.
21
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card issued.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ben McMaster.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Liepāja 1-0 Dečić. Structural assessment: Liepāja exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.