Levadia vs Caernarfon Town preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Sportland Arena Thu, 16 Jul - 4:30 PM
Europa Conference League
LevadiaLEVA
5 0
Caernarfon TownCAE
Full Time Thu, 16 Jul 4:30 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 10 - 0
Enock Otoo - 4'
Wendell - 20'
João Pedro - 33' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Levadia 5–0 Caernarfon Town. The result saw Levadia take the points. Levadia showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 73%–27%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Deviation remained minimal at 3.8 percent for Levadia.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was available to assess alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result proved consistent with market alignment.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated from null data.
  • Event impact: The 5-0 scoreline produced a 10-0 aggregate outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards created no distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Lee
R. Lee
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. MacLeod
R. MacLeod
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Nelson
R. Nelson
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Wilson
L. Wilson
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Levadia V. Zahovaiko
V. Zahovaiko
VS
Caernarfon Town R. Davies
R. Davies
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Caernarfon Town Rank: 43 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levadia Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Levadia
96.23%
Draw
1.89%
Away Caernarfon Town
1.89%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Levadia
Caernarfon Town
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Levadia — Opponent-weighted form score
Caernarfon Town — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Levadia Caernarfon Town

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Levadia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Caernarfon Town

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Levadia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Caernarfon Town
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.68
16.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.67
40.68
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Levadia +2.30 Efficiency Index
vs
Caernarfon Town -2.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Levadia
Caernarfon Town
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Levadia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Caernarfon Town
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Levadia Caernarfon Town
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Levadia Caernarfon Town
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Levadia
Caernarfon Town
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Levadia
vs
Caernarfon Town
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Levadia Caernarfon Town
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Levadia 0.17
Caernarfon Town 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Levadia Caernarfon Town
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Levadia 0.00
Caernarfon Town 0.04
Levadia
Caernarfon Town
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEVA had peak pressure around 17'.
  • LEVA started the game with stronger pressure.
LEVA Pressure CAE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEVA reached the top pressure at 17' (62.64).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Levadia LEVA Home
1 matches
Caernarfon Town CAE Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
5
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-17T00:01:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 16, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 10 - 0
Stadium
Sportland Arena
Capacity
14336
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ryan Lee
Ross MacLeod
Ross Nelson
Lloyd Wilson

Statistics

Possession
LEVA
67%
CAE
33%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
13 Shots 3
134 Dangerous attacks 30
73 Possession 27
9 Corners 0
8 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 87
1 Penalties 0
17 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
8 Throwins 12

Attacking

177 Attacks 89

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 6

Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

99
Karl Andre Vallner
Karl Andre Vallner Goalkeeper
6.5
20
A. Nwankwo
A. Nwankwo Defender
6.49
23
Frank Liivak
Frank Liivak Defender
6.5
71
Kauã Davi
Kauã Davi
Defender66'
6.5
29
Joseph Saliste
Joseph Saliste Defender
6.61
30
Hubert Liiv
Hubert Liiv
Defender66'
6.5
35
Victory Iboro
Victory Iboro Defender
6.5
6
Rasmus Peetson
Rasmus Peetson (C) Midfielder
6.5
11
Mihkel Ainsalu
Mihkel Ainsalu Midfielder
6.69
33
Enock Otoo
Enock Otoo Midfielder
6.69
5
Mark Oliver Roosnupp
Mark Oliver Roosnupp
Midfielder66'
6.61
36
João Pedro
João Pedro Midfielder
6.54
21
Maksimilian Skvortsov
Maksimilian Skvortsov
Midfielder66'
6.5
9
Bubacarr Tambedou
Bubacarr Tambedou Attacker
7.23
10
Wendell
Wendell Attacker
6.86
7
Gregor Lehtmets
Gregor Lehtmets
Attacker66'
6.59
Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Connor Roberts
Connor Roberts Goalkeeper
5.11
3
Mathew Jones
Mathew Jones Defender
5.51
4
Jordan Piggott
Jordan Piggott Defender
5.51
5
Phil Mooney
Phil Mooney Defender
5.51
23
Chris Marriott
Chris Marriott Defender
5.51
27
Ryan Sears
Ryan Sears Defender
5.51
6
Iwan Lewis
Iwan Lewis Midfielder
6.18
8
Danny Gossett
Danny Gossett
Midfielder58'
6.27
10
Darren Thomas
Darren Thomas (C) Midfielder
6.18
29
Osian Evans
Osian Evans
Attacker58'
6.43
11
Adrian Cieslewicz
Adrian Cieslewicz Midfielder
6.04
7
Paulo Mendes
Paulo Mendes
Midfielder87'
14
Noah Edwards
Noah Edwards Midfielder
6.09
21
Connor Salisbury
Connor Salisbury
Attacker87'
9
Zack Clarke
Zack Clarke Attacker
6.32
25
Offrande Zanzala
Offrande Zanzala
Attacker76'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mihkel Ainsalu
Field Goal / 4th Goal
89'
87'
Event
Connor Salisbury → Noah Edwards
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Paulo Mendes → Adrian Cieslewicz
10th Substitution
76'
Event
Offrande Zanzala → Zack Clarke
8th Substitution
Event
Bubacarr Tambedou
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
70'
67'
Event
Mathew Jones
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kauã Davi → Frank Liivak
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Gregor Lehtmets → Wendell
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Hubert Liiv → Joseph Saliste
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Mark Oliver Roosnupp → Enock Otoo
6th Substitution
66'
Event
Maksimilian Skvortsov → João Pedro
7th Substitution
66'
Event
A. Nwankwo
Other reason / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
65'
Event
Zack Clarke
Other reason / 1st Yellowcard
58'
Event
Osian Evans → Darren Thomas
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Danny Gossett → Iwan Lewis
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
João Pedro
Penalty / 1st Penalty
33'
Event
Wendell
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
20'
Event
Enock Otoo
Field Goal / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mihkel Ainsalu scores, making it 5-0.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Substitution Substitution
Connor Evans is substituted for Noah Edwards.
86
Update Update
Paulo Mendes comes on for Adrian Cieslewicz.
76
Update Update
On Offrande Zanzala, off Zack Clarke.
70
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 4-0.
67
Update Update
Gregor Lehtmets comes on for Wendell.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adrian Cieslewicz receives a yellow card.
66
Update Update
On comes Kaua Davi, off goes Frank Liivak.
66
Update Update
Hubert Liiv is on, and Joseph Saliste is off.
66
Update Update
On Mark Oliver Roosnupp, off Enock Otoo.
66
Update Update
Maksimilian Skvortsov comes on for Joao Pedro.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Danny Gossett comes on for Iwan Lewis.
58
Update Update
Osian Evans comes on for Darren Thomas.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! The score is now 3-0.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-0.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Ryan Lee.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Levadia 5-0 Caernarfon Town. Structural assessment: Levadia exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.