Leeds United vs Burnley preview

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Elland Road Fri, 1 May - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Leeds United LEE
Burnley BUR
KICKOFF : Fri, 1 May - 7:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Leeds United host Burnley at Elland Road in a crucial Premier League regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 15th in the table, Leeds hold a commanding power score of 86.43, dwarfing Burnley's 64.57 and granting them a 21.9-point advantage, marking them as the stronger side. Form metrics further tilt the scales, with Leeds' 20.39 rating vastly outpacing Burnley's meager 2.67, suggesting momentum lies firmly with the home team. Burnley languish in 19th, desperate for points to climb out of the relegation mire. While detailed set-piece and efficiency data remains unavailable due to low-confidence proxies, Leeds' overall structural superiority positions them to dominate possession and chances. The Whites thrive in front of their home crowd, where familiarity breeds confidence against a Clarets outfit struggling on the road. This matchup pits resilience against desperation, with Leeds aiming to capitalize on their edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United possesses a 21.9-point power advantage over Burnley, underscored by superior league positioning at 15th versus 19th.
  • Form: Leeds boasts a form score of 20.39, towering above Burnley's 2.67 in recent performances.
  • Squad: Leeds United's squad strength shines through their higher power rating and home advantage at Elland Road.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable, relying on proxy metrics with low confidence for both teams.
  • Transition: Leeds United's higher power score suggests better transition play potential against Burnley's defensive setup.
  • Set pieces: Set-piece statistics unavailable as xG data not enabled, using low-confidence proxies for analysis.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent, limiting precise expected goals insights for this fixture.
  • Market: Leeds United 68.8% (Δ+1.8%) | Draw 20.3% (Δ-0.8%) | Burnley 11% (Δ-1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
VS
Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.4
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 W
Brentford Rank: 88 D
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: 98 L
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 L
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 89 L
Fulham Rank: 86 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Everton Rank: 87 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 4 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Leeds United
68.77%
Draw
20.27%
Away Burnley
10.96%

Movement

Changes since opening
Leeds United
+1.76%
Draw
-0.77%
Burnley
-1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.43
64.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Leeds United
Burnley
Power Score
86.43
64.57
League Position
15
19
Global Rank
26
79

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Leeds United Burnley

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Leeds United LEE Home
22 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
11
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
11
Goals
29
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
29
+8
Goal Difference
-8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:05:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
K. Darlow
Wales
26 K. Darlow
J. Rodon
Wales
6 J. Rodon
J. Bijol
Slovenia
15 J. Bijol
P. Struijk
Netherlands
5 P. Struijk
J. Bogle
England
2 J. Bogle
E. Ampadu
Wales
4 E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
Japan
22 A. Tanaka
J. Justin
England
24 J. Justin
B. Aaronson
United States
11 B. Aaronson
N. Okafor
Switzerland
19 N. Okafor
D. Calvert-Lewin
England
9 D. Calvert-Lewin
M. Dúbravka
Slovakia
1 M. Dúbravka
M. Esteve
France
5 M. Esteve
H. Ekdal
Sweden
18 H. Ekdal
B. Humphreys
England
12 B. Humphreys
Q. Hartman
Netherlands
3 Q. Hartman
J. Laurent
England
29 J. Laurent
J. Ward-Prowse
England
20 J. Ward-Prowse
K. Walker
England
2 K. Walker
J. Anthony
England
11 J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming
L. Foster
South Africa
9 L. Foster

General Information

Date & Time
May 01, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Elland Road
Capacity
40242
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Constantine Hatzidakis
Adam Herczeg
Thomas Bramall
Craig Taylor

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Defender
6.59
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
6.93
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
6.76
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
6.88
24
James Justin
James Justin Defender
6.9
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
6.99
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Midfielder
6.76
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Midfielder
6.8
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
6.78
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
6.9
Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
6.87
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
6.67
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
6.81
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Defender
6.68
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Midfielder
6.53
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Midfielder
6.74
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
6.86
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent Midfielder
6.48
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster Attacker
6.6
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Attacker
6.84
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
6.86

CONCLUSION

Leeds United enter this home encounter against Burnley with every metric in their favor, from power scores to form and league standing. The 21.9-point edge signals a team primed to control proceedings at Elland Road, where home support could prove decisive. Burnley's plight at 19th demands a gritty response, yet their low form score hints at vulnerabilities in transition and efficiency. Absent detailed set-piece data, Leeds' structural dominance likely translates to sustained pressure. Expect the Whites to leverage their superiority for a convincing display, pulling further clear while Burnley battles relegation shadows. Victory here bolsters Leeds' mid-table security.