Lecce vs Genoa preview

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare Sun, 24 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Lecce LEC
Genoa GEN
KICKOFF : Sun, 24 May - 6:45 PM
Round 38 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Lecce host Genoa in Serie A (Regular Season) at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Domestically, Lecce sit 17th in the table while Genoa are 14th. Power ranking favours Genoa by 4.9 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Genoa hold a +4.9 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Genoa are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Lecce show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Genoa have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Genoa carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Genoa hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Lecce 54% (Δ+0%) | Draw 27.2% (Δ+0%) | Genoa 18.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 76 W
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Pisa Rank: 63 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 D
Fiorentina Rank: 78 D
Bologna Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
AC Milan Rank: 83 L
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Atalanta Rank: 84 D
Como Rank: 84 L
Pisa Rank: 62 W
Sassuolo Rank: 75 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 5 - 10
10
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lecce
53.98%
Draw
27.23%
Away Genoa
18.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.64
74.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lecce
Genoa
Power Score
69.64
74.58
League Position
17
14
Global Rank
220
125

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lecce Genoa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lecce LEC Home
17 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
2
Wins
10
5
Draws
5
10
Losses
2
Goals
17
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
17
-16
Goal Difference
+16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-22T00:11:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
W. Falcone
Italy
30 W. Falcone
D. Melo Veiga
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
A. Gallo
Italy
25 A. Gallo
Y. Ramadani
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
O. Ngom
France
79 O. Ngom
S. Pierotti
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
L. Coulibaly
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
L. Banda
Zambia
19 L. Banda
W. Cheddira
Morocco
99 W. Cheddira
J. Bijlow
Netherlands
16 J. Bijlow
J. Vásquez Ibarra
Mexico
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
A. Marcandalli
Italy
27 A. Marcandalli
S. Otoa
Denmark
34 S. Otoa
M. Ellertsson
Iceland
77 M. Ellertsson
M. Frendrup
Denmark
32 M. Frendrup
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
Brazil
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
C. Ekuban
Ghana
18 C. Ekuban
R. Malinovskiy
Ukraine
17 R. Malinovskiy
T. Baldanzi
Italy
8 T. Baldanzi
L. Colombo
Italy
29 L. Colombo

General Information

Date & Time
May 24, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Capacity
40800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniele Doveri
Giuseppe Mucera
Giorgio Peretti
Vito Mastrodonato

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
6.83
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
6.75
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.71
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
6.7
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
6.88
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Midfielder
6.67
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
6.81
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.81
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
6.63
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Attacker
6.54
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Attacker
6.6
Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.91
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Defender
6.87
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Defender
6.6
34
Sebastian Otoa
Sebastian Otoa Defender
6.74
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Midfielder
6.77
8
Tommaso Baldanzi
Tommaso Baldanzi Midfielder
6.73
17
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Ruslan Malinovskyi Midfielder
6.98
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Midfielder
6.89
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.56
18
Caleb Ekuban
Caleb Ekuban Attacker
6.69
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Attacker
6.7

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Genoa holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Genoa a 4.9-point edge. External projection is Lecce 53.7%, draw 27.3%, and Genoa 19%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.