Le Mans vs Brest preview

France flag 2026/2027 Ligue 1, France
Stade de La Pincenardière
Ligue 1
Le MansMAN
2 – 2
BrestB29
Full Time
Round 1 Regular Season
Dame Gueye - 45+2'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Le Mans faced Brest in a competitive encounter that ended in a 2-2 draw. The sides were level at 1-1 after the first half with even possession split at 50 percent each. Brest as the stronger team created the bulk of chances but Le Mans held firm to claim a point. Expected goals heavily favored the visitors at 3.04 against the hosts 0.73 yet the final score reflected a balanced outcome. No red cards occurred and the match proceeded without major disciplinary interruptions. The result highlighted how clinical finishing and defensive resilience can offset statistical dominance in a single fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brest as the stronger team showed significant deviation from expected performance in the draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with overall team capabilities throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: The 2-2 outcome was not consistent with the xG differential favoring Brest.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with pre-match market projections.
  • xG expectations: Le Mans recorded 0.73 xG while Brest reached 3.04 xG in the contest.
  • Event impact: Goals alone shaped the match without additional disruptive events.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were shown so no distortion affected team structures.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Petit
A. Petit
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.32
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
A. Auger
A. Auger
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Rozand
V. Rozand
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Ben El Hadj
S. Ben El Hadj
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Le Mans P. Videira
P. Videira
VS
Brest J. Lachuer
J. Lachuer
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.82
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Angers SCO Rank: 69 D
Strasbourg Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 L
Paris Rank: 75 L
Lens Rank: 86 D
Nantes Rank: 71 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
36.09
73.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Le Mans
Brest
Power Score
36.09
73.4
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
430
165

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Le Mans — Opponent-weighted form score
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Le Mans Brest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Le Mans

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Le Mans ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brest
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.30
58.10
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
58.10
18.30
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Le Mans -4.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Brest +4.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Le Mans
Brest
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Le Mans
vs
Brest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Le Mans Brest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
9%
54%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.07 vs -1.63
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Le Mans Brest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
54%
9%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-1.63 vs -0.07
Le Mans
Brest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Le Mans
vs
Brest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Le Mans Brest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Le Mans 0.35
Brest 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Le Mans Brest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Le Mans 0.03
Brest 0.09
Le Mans
Brest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • B29 had peak pressure around 98'.
  • B29 started the game with stronger pressure.
MAN Pressure B29 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: B29 reached the top pressure at 98' (100.00).

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Competition
2026/2027 Ligue 1, France · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade de La Pincenardière
Capacity
25000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Aurélien Petit
Alexis Auger
Vianney Rozand
Salem Zyed Ben El Hadj

Statistics

Possession
MAN
47%
B29
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 15
23 Dangerous attacks 61
50 Possession 50
1 Corners 10
12 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

82 Ball Safe 71
11 Goal Kicks 5
8 Goal Attempts 16
5 Substitutions 4
21 Throwins 20
15 Successful Headers 25
2 Assists 1
14 Dribble Attempts 23
6 Successful Dribbles 16
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 70

Attacking

91 Attacks 116
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

77 Long Passes 76
415 Passes 399
317 Successful Passes 314
76 Successful Passes Percentage 79
5 Key Passes 17
36 Successful Long Passes 38
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

4 Saves 3
14 Tackles 18
12 Interceptions 11
47 Duels Won 70

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 28
2 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Aurélien Petit

Starting XI ▼

98
Nicolas Kocik
Nicolas Kocik Goalkeeper
7.18
15
Noa Boissé
Noa Boissé Defender
6.77
21
Théo Eyoum
Théo Eyoum Defender
6.37
26
Rayan Bamba
Rayan Bamba Defender
6.68
8
Alexandre Lauray
Alexandre Lauray (C) Midfielder
6.45
29
Lucas Bretelle
Lucas Bretelle
Midfielder63'
6.69
9
Antoine Rabillard
Antoine Rabillard Midfielder
7.04
11
Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa
Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa Midfielder
6.36
7
Billal Brahimi
Billal Brahimi
Attacker72'
6.41
18
Lucas Buadés
Lucas Buadés Midfielder
7.21
76
Yasser Larouci
Yasser Larouci Midfielder
6.41
22
Lucas Calodat
Lucas Calodat
Defender81'
6.48
14
Louis Mafouta
Louis Mafouta Attacker
7.95
28
Erwan Colas
Erwan Colas
Attacker63'
6.51
25
Dame Gueye
Dame Gueye Attacker
6.81
20
William Harhouz
William Harhouz
Attacker72'
6.48
Referee : Aurélien Petit

Starting XI ▼

1
Egil Selvik
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper
6.76
2
Bradley Locko
Bradley Locko Defender
6.54
29
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart Defender
6.76
70
Kenny Lala
Kenny Lala (C) Defender
6.69
71
R. Le Guen
R. Le Guen Defender
6.88
7
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Midfielder
6.79
6
Mamady Diambou
Mamady Diambou
Midfielder63'
6.76
9
Pathé Mboup
Pathé Mboup Midfielder
6.59
11
Axel Camblan
Axel Camblan
Midfielder71'
6.57
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
7.67
17
Mama Baldé
Mama Baldé
Attacker71'
6.86
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Midfielder
7.65
23
Kamory Doumbia
Kamory Doumbia Midfielder
8.39
32
Mathis Lainé
Mathis Lainé
Midfielder89'
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
7.85

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Mathis Lainé → Kamory Doumbia
9th Substitution
Event
Lucas Calodat → Yasser Larouci
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Billal Brahimi → Adil Ali Mohamed Bourabaa
6th Substitution
72'
Event
William Harhouz → Dame Gueye
7th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Mama Baldé → Romain Del Castillo
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Axel Camblan → Pathé Mboup
5th Substitution
Event
Lucas Bretelle → Alexandre Lauray
1st Substitution
63'
Event
Erwan Colas → Louis Mafouta
2nd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Mamady Diambou → Joseph Nonge
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Kamory Doumbia
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Louis Mafouta
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
Event
Alexandre Lauray
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
Event
Dame Gueye
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45+2'
43'
Event
Ludovic Ajorque
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Romain Del Castillo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Attempt Attempt
Axel Camblan takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mama Samba Balde with his right foot, but it misses the target.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
84
Attempt Attempt
Joris Chotard takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
83
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque attempts a header but misses the shot.
82
Attempt Attempt
Joris Chotard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Calodat comes on for Yasser Larouci.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Calodat replaces Yasser Larouci.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Lucas Calodat comes on for Yasser Larouci.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
79
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Tousart takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mamady Diambou takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque's header is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Kamory Doumbia takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Update Update
On comes William Harhouz, off goes Dame Gueye.
63
Update Update
Billal Brahimi replaces Adil Bourabaa.
63
Update Update
Axel Camblan is replaced by Pathe Mboup.
63
Attempt Attempt
Mamady Diambou takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
62
Update Update
Mamady Diambou is on, and Joseph Nonge Boende is off.
62
Update Update
Mamady Diambou comes on for Joseph Nonge Boende.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Lucas Bretelle is on, and Alexandre Lauray is off.
55
Update Update
Erwan Colas comes on for Louis Mafouta.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kamory Doumbia takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
51
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Tousart takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Alexandre Lauray.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
First half ends with the score at 1-1.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dame Gueye takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
43
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 1-1.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dame Gueye takes a left-footed shot and scores.
41
Update Update
First half ends with the score at 1-1.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dame Gueye scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Louis Mafouta.
37
Attempt Attempt
Adil Bourabaa takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Pathe Mboup takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ludovic Ajorque receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque attempts a header but misses the shot.
31
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Pathe Mboup takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque attempted a header but missed the shot.
28
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Romain Del Castillo scores, making it 1-0.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
21
Update Update
Offside.
21
Attempt Attempt
Kamory Doumbia takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Update Update
Offside.
18
Update Update
Offside.
18
Update Update
Offside.
15
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Le Guen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Rabillard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Antoine Rabillard takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Kamory Doumbia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Ajorque takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Le Guen takes a header shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Aurelien Petit.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw between Le Mans and Brest underscored the unpredictability of football outcomes even when one side dominates expected metrics. Brest generated far more quality opportunities yet could not translate that edge into three points. Le Mans demonstrated effective organization and timely responses to maintain parity. With possession equal and no dismissals the game stayed open until the end. This result may prompt Brest to refine conversion rates in future outings while Le Mans can take confidence from holding a stronger opponent. Overall the fixture illustrated how defensive discipline combines with opportunistic scoring to produce shared spoils.