Le Havre vs Olympique Marseille preview

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Océane Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Le HavreLEH
Olympique MarseilleOM
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Le Havre host Olympique Marseille at Stade Océane in a Ligue 1 regular season clash during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 14th in the standings, Le Havre boast a stronger recent form score of 9.61 compared to Marseille's 4.56, offering hope against the 7th-placed visitors. Marseille hold a clear power advantage at 78.71 versus Le Havre's 67.62, translating to an 11.1-point edge that underscores their superior overall quality. No recent match details are available for either side. Advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces remain unavailable due to absent xG data, with low-confidence proxies in use. Le Havre will rely on home advantage and momentum, while Marseille aim to leverage their structural superiority in this mid-table encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Marseille possess a 11.1-point power advantage with a score of 78.71 over Le Havre's 67.62.
  • Form: Le Havre lead in form with a score of 9.61 against Marseille's 4.56.
  • Squad: Le Havre occupy 14th place while Marseille sit 7th in Ligue 1.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG.
  • xVariable: Marseille identified as stronger team overall.
  • Market: Le Havre 27.7% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 25.6% (Δ-0.1%) | Olympique Marseille 46.8% (Δ-0.1%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
VS
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Metz Rank: 61 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 73 D
Auxerre Rank: 70 D
Paris Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 65 L
Nice Rank: 71 D
Lorient Rank: 72 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 80 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Le Havre
27.66%
Draw
25.57%
Away Olympique Marseille
46.77%

Movement

Changes since opening
Le Havre
+0.21%
Draw
-0.12%
Olympique Marseille
-0.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.62
78.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Le Havre
Olympique Marseille
Power Score
67.62
78.71
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
264
72

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Le Havre Olympique Marseille

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Le Havre LEH Home
7 matches
Olympique Marseille OM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
7
0
Draws
0
7
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
5
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:38:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Diaw
Senegal
99 M. Diaw
L. Nego
Hungary
7 L. Nego
A. Seko
Japan
15 A. Seko
G. Lloris
France
4 G. Lloris
Y. Zouaoui
France
18 Y. Zouaoui
S. Ebonog
France
26 S. Ebonog
L. Gourna Douath
France
19 L. Gourna Douath
F. Doucouré
Mali
13 F. Doucouré
S. Boufal
Morocco
17 S. Boufal
I. Soumaré
Senegal
45 I. Soumaré
F. Mambimbi
Switzerland
10 F. Mambimbi
J. de Lange
Netherlands
12 J. de Lange
E. Palmieri dos Santos
Italy
33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
F. Medina
Argentina
32 F. Medina
L. Balerdi Rossa
Argentina
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
K. Bezahaf
35 K. Bezahaf
P. Højbjerg
Denmark
23 P. Højbjerg
A. Vermeeren
Belgium
18 A. Vermeeren
I. Barbosa da Paixão
Brazil
14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
E. Nwaneri
England
11 E. Nwaneri
M. Greenwood
England
10 M. Greenwood
A. Gouiri
Algeria
9 A. Gouiri

General Information

Date & Time
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Océane
Capacity
25181
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Benoît Bastien
Hicham Zakrani
Aurélien Berthomieu
Mikael Lesage

Lineup

Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
6.93
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Defender
6.96
7
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego Defender
6.76
15
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko Defender
6.77
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui Defender
6.85
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Midfielder
6.84
19
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Lucas Gourna-Douath Midfielder
6.77
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog Midfielder
6.61
10
Felix Mambimbi
Felix Mambimbi Attacker
6.61
13
Fodé Doucouré
Fodé Doucouré Attacker
6.72
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Attacker
7.08
Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

12
Jeffrey de Lange
Jeffrey de Lange Goalkeeper
6.53
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Defender
6.79
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Defender
6.8
33
Emerson
Emerson Defender
7.02
35
Kelyann Bezahaf
Kelyann Bezahaf Defender
11
Ethan Nwaneri
Ethan Nwaneri Midfielder
6.67
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren Midfielder
6.64
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder
7.18
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Attacker
7.06
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Attacker
7.54
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão Attacker
6.91

CONCLUSION

Marseille's power edge and higher league position position them as favorites, but Le Havre's superior form score suggests potential for an upset at Stade Océane. Without detailed efficiency or set piece insights, the focus falls on Marseille's quality prevailing over Le Havre's momentum. Expect a competitive battle where Marseille's structural advantages could shine through, though home resilience might keep it tight. Key to watch: how Le Havre channel their form into defensive solidity against Marseille's attacking threat.