Las Palmas vs Málaga preview

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de Gran Canaria Sun, 7 Jun - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Las Palmas LPA
Málaga MLA
KICKOFF : Sun, 7 Jun - 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

CONTEXT

Las Palmas host Málaga in La Liga 2 (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals) at Estadio de Gran Canaria. Domestically, Las Palmas sit 5th in the table while Málaga are 4th. Power ranking favours Málaga by 0.7 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Málaga hold a +0.7 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Málaga are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Las Palmas show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Málaga have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Málaga carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Málaga hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Baseline split: Las Palmas 46% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.9% (Δ+0%) | Málaga 25.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Las Palmas L. García Fernández
L. García Fernández
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.08
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: W
Real Zaragoza Rank: D
Almería Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: L
Real Valladolid Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: W
Racing Santander Rank: D
Ceuta Rank: W
Sporting Gijón Rank: W
SD Eibar Rank: W
Castellón Rank: L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 7 - 8
8
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Las Palmas
46.03%
Draw
28.85%
Away Málaga
25.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
33.7
34.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Las Palmas
Málaga
Power Score
33.7
34.43
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Las Palmas — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Las Palmas Málaga

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Las Palmas LPA Home
22 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
7
Draws
7
8
Losses
7
Goals
25
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
25
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-06-05T00:00:40+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Horkaš
1 D. Horkaš
M. Olawale Akinlabi Park
2 M. Olawale Akinlabi Park
Á. Suárez
4 Á. Suárez
M. Marmol Medina
3 M. Marmol Medina
E. Clemente Maza
5 E. Clemente Maza
K. Rodríguez Concepción
20 K. Rodríguez Concepción
L. Amatucci
16 L. Amatucci
T. Miyashiro
18 T. Miyashiro
M. Fuster Lázaro
14 M. Fuster Lázaro
E. Pedrola Fortuny
39 E. Pedrola Fortuny
J. Rodríguez Ruiz
10 J. Rodríguez Ruiz
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
E. Galilea Azaceta
4 E. Galilea Azaceta
D. Murillo Dominguez
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
I. Merino Rodríguez
23 I. Merino Rodríguez
D. Lorenzo Guerrero
22 D. Lorenzo Guerrero
D. Larrubia Romano
10 D. Larrubia Romano
C. Dotor Gonzalez
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
C. Ruiz Rubio
9 C. Ruiz Rubio

General Information

Date & Time
Jun 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Estadio de Gran Canaria
Capacity
32392
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Dinko Horkas
Dinko Horkas Goalkeeper
6.82
10
Jesé
Jesé Centre Forward
6.9
2
Marvin Park
Marvin Park Right Back
6.83
3
Mika Mármol
Mika Mármol Left Back
6.98
4
Álex Suárez
Álex Suárez Right Back
6.56
5
Enrique Clemente
Enrique Clemente Left Back
6.98
14
Manu Fuster
Manu Fuster Attacking Midfield
7.19
16
Lorenzo Amatucci
Lorenzo Amatucci Defensive Midfield
6.98
18
Taisei Miyashiro
Taisei Miyashiro Right Wing
6.83
20
Kirian Rodríguez
Kirian Rodríguez Defensive Midfield
6.88
39
Estanis Pedrola
Estanis Pedrola Left Wing
6.89

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.96
10
David Larrubia
David Larrubia Midfielder
7.12
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.94
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.18
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Attacker
6.88
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.95
4
Einar Galilea
Einar Galilea Left Back
6.78
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Right Back
7.02
22
Dani Lorenzo
Dani Lorenzo Central Midfield
7.03
23
Izan Merino
Izan Merino Central Midfield
6.7
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.76

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Málaga holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Málaga a 0.7-point edge. External projection is Las Palmas 46%, draw 28.9%, and Málaga 25.1%. That projection profile diverges from the structural signals, so execution is likely to decide the result. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.