Larne vs Tre Fiori preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Windsor Park Tue, 14 Jul - 7:00 PM
Champions League
LarneLARN
2 1
Tre FioriTFI
Full Time Tue, 14 Jul 7:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 3 - 1
Matt Ridley - 25'
Dan Bent - 69' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
|
Second yellow card Simone Rea 63'
Second yellow card Tommaso Bernardi 90'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Larne 2–1 Tre Fiori. The result saw Larne take the points. Larne showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 68%–32%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Larne recorded a minimal 2.6 percent deviation from expected performance levels.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match projections for both teams.
  • xG alignment: No expected goals figures were recorded so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The outcome stayed consistent with the stronger team entering the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Projected goal metrics were unavailable and therefore expectations stayed unverified.
  • Event impact: The aggregate position of 3-1 entering the leg shaped the measured approach from Larne.
  • Red card distortion: Two red cards to Tre Fiori altered the second-half structure and tempo.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Kringstad
S. Kringstad
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
R. Langseth
R. Langseth
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Skogsrud Haukåsen
O. Skogsrud Haukåsen
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Røvig Sletner
S. Røvig Sletner
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Larne G. Haveron
G. Haveron
VS
Tre Fiori D. Girolomoni
D. Girolomoni
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tre Fiori Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Larne Rank: 56 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Larne
97.44%
Draw
1.91%
Away Tre Fiori
0.65%

Movement

Changes since opening
Larne
+0.45%
Draw
-0.46%
Tre Fiori
+0.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
50
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Larne
Tre Fiori
Power Score
50
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Larne — Opponent-weighted form score
Tre Fiori — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Larne Tre Fiori

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Larne

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Tre Fiori

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Larne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tre Fiori
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.65
26.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.41
22.65
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Larne -0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Tre Fiori +0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Larne
Tre Fiori
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Larne ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Tre Fiori
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Larne Tre Fiori
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Larne Tre Fiori
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Larne
Tre Fiori
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Larne
vs
Tre Fiori
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Larne Tre Fiori
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Larne 0.18
Tre Fiori 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Larne Tre Fiori
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Larne 0.03
Tre Fiori 0.03
Larne
Tre Fiori
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LARN had peak pressure around 23'.
  • LARN started the game with stronger pressure.
LARN Pressure TFI Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LARN reached the top pressure at 23' (69.66).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Larne LARN Home
1 matches
Tre Fiori TFI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-15T00:01:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 14, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 3 - 1
Stadium
Windsor Park
Capacity
20332
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Runar Langseth
Ole Andreas Skogsrud Haukåsen
Stian Røvig Sletner

Statistics

Possession
LARN
56%
TFI
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
8 Shots 4
68 Dangerous attacks 29
68 Possession 32
5 Corners 1
24 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 8
0 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

58 Ball Safe 73
1 Penalties 0
11 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
26 Throwins 17
1 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

79 Attacks 70

Defensive

2 Saves 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
10 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

1
Rohan Ferguson
Rohan Ferguson Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Matt Ridley
Matt Ridley Defender
6.45
4
Aaron Donnelly
Aaron Donnelly Defender
6.26
11
Sean Graham
Sean Graham Defender
6.26
47
James Simpson
James Simpson
Midfielder80'
6.5
23
Tomas Cosgrove
Tomas Cosgrove Defender
6.26
6
Chris Gallagher
Chris Gallagher Midfielder
6.37
7
Conor McKendry
Conor McKendry Midfielder
6.33
15
Ronan Doherty
Ronan Doherty Midfielder
6.48
25
Dylan Sloan
Dylan Sloan
Midfielder76'
6.5
26
Dan Bent
Dan Bent Midfielder
6.41
30
Matthew Lusty
Matthew Lusty Attacker
6.46
9
Paul O'Neill
Paul O'Neill
Attacker80'
6.5
45
Montel Gibson
Montel Gibson Attacker
6.46
19
Kevin O'Hara
Kevin O'Hara
Attacker58'
6.5
Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

17
Michele Nardi
Michele Nardi Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Alessandro D'Addario
Alessandro D'Addario Defender
6.25
99
Giulio Ponticelli
Giulio Ponticelli
Defender58'
6.25
3
Mattia Sancisi
Mattia Sancisi Defender
6.05
5
Simone Rea
Simone Rea Defender
5.62
6
Tom Syku
Tom Syku Defender
6.04
24
Pietro Mengucci
Pietro Mengucci Defender
6.24
28
Luca Terenzi
Luca Terenzi
Defender83'
6.5
4
Brando Sami
Brando Sami Midfielder
6.27
20
Federico Benedettini
Federico Benedettini Midfielder
6.27
29
Romeo Bertani
Romeo Bertani Midfielder
6.27
8
Luca Censoni
Luca Censoni
Midfielder83'
6.5
9
Matteo Prandelli
Matteo Prandelli Attacker
6.55
27
Mohamed Ben Kacem
Mohamed Ben Kacem
Attacker58'
6.46
76
Nico Manara
Nico Manara Attacker
6.39
10
Tommaso Bernardi
Tommaso Bernardi
Attacker72'
5.96

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Giulio Ponticelli
7th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Tommaso Bernardi
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Tommaso Bernardi
Roughing / 2nd Yellow/red Card
83'
Event
Luca Censoni → Romeo Bertani
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Luca Terenzi → Pietro Mengucci
10th Substitution
Event
Paul O'Neill → Matthew Lusty
7th Substitution
80'
Event
James Simpson → Sean Graham
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Dylan Sloan → Ronan Doherty
6th Substitution
76'
72'
Event
Tommaso Bernardi → Nico Manara
5th Substitution
Event
Dan Bent
Penalty / 1st Penalty
69'
67'
Event
Nico Manara
Roughing / 5th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Simone Rea
Holding / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Kevin O'Hara → Montel Gibson
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
3rd Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Mohamed Ben Kacem → Matteo Prandelli 
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Giulio Ponticelli → Alessandro D'Addario
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Simone Rea
Roughing / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Conor McKendry
Roughing / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
49'
Event
Tom Syku
Roughing / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Alessandro D'Addario
Handling / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Matt Ridley
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
11'
Event
Pietro Mengucci
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Giulio Ponticelli.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Giulio Ponticelli.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Giulio Ponticelli.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Giulio Ponticelli.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Tommaso Leon Bernardi.
83
Update Update
Luca Censoni comes on for Bertani Romeo.
83
Update Update
Luca Terenzi comes on for Pietro Mengucci.
81
Update Update
James Simpson is on, and Sean Graham is off.
80
Update Update
James Simpson is on, and Sean Graham is off.
76
Update Update
Dylan Sloan is on, and Ronan Doherty is off.
72
Update Update
Tommaso Leon Bernardi replaces Nico Manara.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Dan Bent scores, making it 2-1.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nico Manara receives a yellow card.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Simone Rea receives a second yellow card.
60
Update Update
Mohamed Ben Kacem comes on for Alessandro D'Addario.
59
Update Update
On comes Mohamed Ben Kacem, and Alessandro D'Addario goes off.
59
Update Update
On comes Kevin O'Hara, and Montel Gibson goes off.
58
Update Update
Jordan McEneff replaces Conor McKendry.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Simone Rea receives a yellow card.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Conor McKendry receives a yellow card.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tom Syku receives a yellow card.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
44
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Alessandro D'Addario.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Sigurd Smehus Kringstad.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Larne 2-1 Tre Fiori. Structural assessment: Larne exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.