KuPS vs Vardar preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Väre Areena Tue, 14 Jul - 3:00 PM
Champions League
KuPS KuPS
2 3
Vardar Vardar
Full Time: After Extra Time Tue, 14 Jul 3:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 3
Bob Nii Armah - 100'
Piotr Parzyszek - 105+1' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Saku Savolainen - 59'
Goran Zakaric - 90+1' (P)
Ian Puleio - 102'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. KuPS 2–3 Vardar. The result saw Vardar take the points. Vardar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 55%–45%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: KuPS 2-3 Vardar. Vardar showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. MacDermid
M. MacDermid
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
C. Rae
C. Rae
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Potter
D. Potter
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Irvine
G. Irvine
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
KuPS M. Nuutinen
M. Nuutinen
VS
Vardar C. Fabbiani
C. Fabbiani
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vardar Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
KuPS Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home KuPS
59.55%
Draw
23.16%
Away Vardar
17.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
KuPS
+58.59%
Draw
+21.26%
Vardar
-79.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.33
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
KuPS
Vardar
Power Score
23.33
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
KuPS — Opponent-weighted form score
Vardar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) KuPS Vardar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

KuPS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vardar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

KuPS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vardar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
KuPS Vardar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
KuPS Vardar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
KuPS
Vardar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
KuPS
vs
Vardar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
KuPS Vardar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
KuPS 0.00
Vardar 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
KuPS Vardar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
KuPS 0.00
Vardar 0.00
KuPS
Vardar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KuPS had peak pressure around 86'.
  • Vardar started the game with stronger pressure.
KuPS Pressure Vardar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KuPS reached the top pressure at 86' (52.66).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

KuPS KuPS Home
1 matches
Vardar Vardar Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-14T14:30:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
J. Kreidl
Austria
1 J. Kreidl
A. Puukko
Substitution
Finland
29 A. Puukko
B. Magassa
France
28 B. Magassa
K. Nuhu
Ghana
4 K. Nuhu
C. Antwi
Ghana
25 C. Antwi
P. Pennanen
Substitution
Finland
8 P. Pennanen
V. Gasc
Argentina
10 V. Gasc
T. Jyry
Substitution
Finland
16 T. Jyry
G. Engvall
Substitution
Sweden
9 G. Engvall
B. Armah
Substitution
Ghana
24 B. Armah
J. Moreno Ciorciari
Substitution
Nicaragua
11 J. Moreno Ciorciari
D. Taleski
Macedonia
95 D. Taleski
G. Jankulov
Macedonia
21 G. Jankulov
F. Najdoski
Substitution
Macedonia
5 F. Najdoski
D. Velkovski
Substitution
Macedonia
14 D. Velkovski
M. Matić
Croatia
4 M. Matić
M. Manevski
Substitution
Macedonia
3 M. Manevski
M. Ferreira Pires
Substitution
Portugal
71 M. Ferreira Pires
D. Castañeda
Substitution
Argentina
32 D. Castañeda
B. Nikolov
Macedonia
8 B. Nikolov
G. Rodrigues Gouveia
Luxembourg
7 G. Rodrigues Gouveia
A. Omeragikj
Substitution
Macedonia
9 A. Omeragikj

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium
Väre Areena
Capacity
5300
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael MacDermid
Chris Rae
Dougie Potter
Grant Irvine

Statistics

Possession
KuPS
53%
Vardar
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
10 Shots 6
36 Dangerous attacks 37
55 Possession 45
12 Corners 6
25 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

75 Ball Safe 69
1 Penalties 1
12 Goal Attempts 6
6 Substitutions 6
19 Throwins 22
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 3

Attacking

87 Attacks 81

Defensive

3 Saves 2

Discipline

0 Offsides 1
17 Fouls 25

Lineup

Referee : Michael MacDermid

Starting XI ▼

1
Johannes Kreidl
Johannes Kreidl Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Kasim Adams
Kasim Adams Defender
6.5
24
Bob Nii Armah
Bob Nii Armah Defender
6.69
21
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba
Midfielder111'
6.49
25
Clinton Antwi
Clinton Antwi Defender
6.61
28
Brahima Magassa
Brahima Magassa Defender
6.69
29
Akseli Puukko
Akseli Puukko Defender
6.5
6
Saku Savolainen
Saku Savolainen
Defender46'
6.5
8
Petteri Pennanen
Petteri Pennanen Midfielder
6.5
13
Niilo Kujasalo
Niilo Kujasalo
Midfielder111'
6.76
10
Valentín Gasc
Valentín Gasc Midfielder
6.5
16
Tommi Jyry
Tommi Jyry Midfielder
6.5
23
Arttu Lötjönen
Arttu Lötjönen
Defender105+2'
6.54
9
Gustav Engvall
Gustav Engvall Attacker
6.46
22
Saikou Touray
Saikou Touray
Midfielder58'
6.5
11
Jaime Moreno
Jaime Moreno Attacker
6.5
20
Piotr Parzyszek
Piotr Parzyszek
Attacker58'
6.5
Referee : Michael MacDermid

Starting XI ▼

95
Davor Taleski
Davor Taleski Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Mihail Manevski
Mihail Manevski Defender
6.5
10
Goran Zakaric
Goran Zakaric
Attacker85'
6.43
4
Mislav Matic
Mislav Matic Defender
6.04
5
Filip Najdovski
Filip Najdovski Defender
6.63
18
Nenad Miskovski
Nenad Miskovski
Defender90+5'
6.28
14
Darko Velkovski
Darko Velkovski Defender
6.05
27
Filip Cvetkovski
Filip Cvetkovski
Defender93'
21
Georgije Jankulov
Georgije Jankulov Defender
6.05
8
Boban Nikolov
Boban Nikolov Midfielder
6.23
32
Diego Castañeda
Diego Castañeda Midfielder
6.27
6
David Babunski
David Babunski
Midfielder106'
6.5
71
Miguel Pires
Miguel Pires Midfielder
6.27
17
Ediz Spahiu
Ediz Spahiu
Attacker74'
6.59
7
Gerson Rodrigues
Gerson Rodrigues Attacker
6.46
9
Azer Omeragić
Azer Omeragić Attacker
6.43
34
Ian Puleio
Ian Puleio
Midfielder74'
6.27

Events

2ND-HALF
120+2'
Event
Filip Cvetkovski
Tripping / 7th Yellowcard
113'
Event
Nenad Miskovski
Handling / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Niilo Kujasalo → Petteri Pennanen 
11th Substitution
111'
Event
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba → Bob Nii Armah
12th Substitution
111'
106'
Event
David Babunski → Diego Castañeda
10th Substitution
Event
Arttu Lötjönen → Tommi Jyry
9th Substitution
105+2'
Event
Piotr Parzyszek
Penalty / 2nd Penalty
105+1'
102'
Event
Ian Puleio
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Bob Nii Armah
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
100'
93'
Event
Filip Cvetkovski → Darko Velkovski
8th Substitution
Event
Saku Savolainen
Roughing / 5th Yellowcard
90+11'
90+5'
Event
Nenad Miskovski → Filip Najdovski
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Goran Zakaric
Penalty / 1st Penalty
87'
Event
Ediz Spahiu
Roughing / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Goran Zakaric → Mihail Manevski
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Ian Puleio → Azer Omeragić 
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Ediz Spahiu → Miguel Pires
5th Substitution
59'
Event
Saku Savolainen
Own Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Piotr Parzyszek → Jaime Moreno
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Saikou Touray → Gustav Engvall
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Saku Savolainen → Akseli Puukko
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Valentín Gasc
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 2nd Yellowcard
44'
44'
Event
Gerson Rodrigues
Tripping / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Akseli Puukko
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 1st Yellowcard
24'

Match Commentary

120
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filip Cvetkovski receives a yellow card.
120
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
113
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Nenad Mishkovski.
111
Update Update
Niilo Kujasalo is on, and Petteri Pennanen is off.
111
Substitution Substitution
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba is substituted off for Bob Nii Armah.
109
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
107
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
106
Update Update
David Babunski comes on for Diego Castaneda.
105
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
105
Update Update
Arttu Lotjonen is on, and Tommi Jyry is off.
105
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Piotr Parzyszek scores, bringing the tally to 2 penalties for his team and 3 for the opponents.
102
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ian Puleio scores, making it 1-3, assisted by Goran Zakaric.
100
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Bob Nii Armah scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Clinton Antwi.
93
Update Update
Filip Cvetkovski replaces Darko Velkovski.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saku Savolainen receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Piotr Parzyszek.
90
Update Update
Nenad Mishkovski comes on for Filip Najdovski.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Goran Zakaric scores, making it 0-2.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Ediz Spahiu.
85
Update Update
On comes Goran Zakaric, while Mihail Manevski goes off.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
74
Substitution Substitution
Ian Puleio is substituted off for Azer Omeragikj.
74
Update Update
On Ian Puleio, Off Azer Omeragikj.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Saku Savolainen puts the score at 0-1.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Azer Omeragikj scores to make it 0-1, assisted by Boban Nikolov.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Azer Omeragikj scores to make it 1-0.
58
Update Update
Saikou Touray replaces Gustav Engvall.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Saku Savolainen is on, and Akseli Puukko is off.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gerson Rodrigues receives a yellow card.
44
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Valentin Gasc.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Akseli Puukko.
21
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Matthew MacDermid.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: KuPS 2-3 Vardar. Structural assessment: Vardar exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.