Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Karpaty preview

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion SK Horní Mecholupy Fri, 8 May - 10:00 AM
Premier League
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
1 0
Karpaty Karpaty
Full Time Fri, 8 May 10:00 AM
Round 27 Regular Season
Assane Seck - 32'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih clinched a gritty 1-0 home win against Karpaty, striking first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime and holding firm thereafter. Despite ceding possession at 44% to Karpaty's 56%, the hosts showcased defensive solidity and clinical finishing, frustrating their opponents who dominated the ball but lacked end product. This outcome marks a notable upset, with pre-match evaluations positioning Karpaty as favorites, yet Kryvbas delivered a performance of resilience and opportunism. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing a tactical battle to unfold naturally across both halves. Efficiency indicators remained balanced, reflecting steady execution without drastic shifts. The victory underscores Kryvbas's edge as the stronger side, capitalizing on home advantage in a low-scoring affair that hinged on that solitary first-half strike. Possession disparities highlighted Karpaty's pressure, but Kryvbas's organization prevailed, denying any equalizer.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih recorded a significant 71% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency metrics stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or major events influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Derevinskyi
O. Derevinskyi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih P. van Leeuwen
P. van Leeuwen
VS
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: 33 D
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 65 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 W
Kudrivka Rank: 42 W
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 47 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Oleksandria Rank: 43 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 W
Obolon'-Brovar Rank: 41 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
29.04%
Draw
26.49%
Away Karpaty
44.46%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
-65.26%
Draw
+21.43%
Karpaty
+43.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.09
55.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
Power Score
56.09
55.1
League Position
7
9
Global Rank
624
647

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih — Opponent-weighted form score
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
2.73
3.33
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
3.33
2.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih -0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Karpaty +0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Karpaty
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
vs
Karpaty
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.10
Karpaty 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Karpaty
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0.00
Karpaty 0.00
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Karpaty
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih had peak pressure around 13'.
  • Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Pressure Karpaty Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih reached the top pressure at 13' (68.61).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Home
3 matches
Karpaty Karpaty Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-08T11:30:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
O. Kemkin
Ukraine
12 O. Kemkin
J. Jurčec
Croatia
2 J. Jurčec
V. Volodymyr
Ukraine
4 V. Volodymyr
J. Jones
Panama
15 J. Jones
A. Bekavac
Croatia
5 A. Bekavac
M. Zaderaka
Ukraine
94 M. Zaderaka
A. Araujo Araque
Venezuela
6 A. Araujo Araque
Y. Shevchenko
8 Y. Shevchenko
B. Lin
Substitution
Israel
18 B. Lin
A. Seck
Substitution
Senegal
14 A. Seck
G. Mendoza Barrios
Substitution
Venezuela
7 G. Mendoza Barrios
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
O. Sych
Substitution
Ukraine
77 O. Sych
A. Shakh
Substitution
Ukraine
33 A. Shakh
M. Sapuga
Substitution
Ukraine
20 M. Sapuga
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
Y. Kostenko
Ukraine
26 Y. Kostenko
Y. Karabin
Substitution
Ukraine
19 Y. Karabin
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena

General Information

Date & Time
May 08, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion SK Horní Mecholupy
Capacity
1000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Statistics

Possession
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
45%
Karpaty
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
10 Shots 13
51 Dangerous attacks 78
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

95 Attacks 107

Defensive

6 Saves 6

Discipline

8 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

12
Oleksandr Kemkin
Oleksandr Kemkin Goalkeeper
6.3
2
Jan Jurcec
Jan Jurcec Defender
6.29
4
Volodymyr Vilivald
Volodymyr Vilivald Defender
6.42
5
Ante Bekavac
Ante Bekavac Defender
6.19
15
Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones Defender
6.74
6
Andrusw Araujo
Andrusw Araujo Midfielder
6.48
7
Gleiker Mendoza
Gleiker Mendoza Midfielder
6.98
16
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges
Defender89'
8
Yaroslav Shevchenko
Yaroslav Shevchenko Midfielder
6.53
14
Assane Seck
Assane Seck Midfielder
6.6
24
Volodymyr Mulyk
Volodymyr Mulyk
Attacker68'
6.47
18
Bar Lin
Bar Lin Midfielder
6.64
10
Giovany Herbert
Giovany Herbert
Attacker68'
6.41
94
Maksym Zaderaka
Maksym Zaderaka Midfielder
6.53
Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
6.7
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
6.62
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
6.17
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
6.22
77
Oleksiy Sych
Oleksiy Sych Defender
6.5
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko
Defender60'
6.44
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
6.53
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin Midfielder
6.47
14
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Ilya Kvasnytsya
Midfielder80'
6.4
20
Marko Sapuga
Marko Sapuga Midfielder
6.64
35
Edson Fernando
Edson Fernando
Midfielder16'
6.36
26
Yan Kostenko
Yan Kostenko Midfielder
6.7
33
Artur Shakh
Artur Shakh Midfielder
6.48
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Midfielder60'
6.5
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
6.9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oleksandr Kemkin
5th Yellowcard
90+3'
90+1'
Event
Vitaliy Kholod
4th Yellowcard
Event
Thiago Isabel Nascimento Borges → Gleiker Mendoza
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Gleiker Mendoza
6th Yellowcard
89'
80'
Event
Eriki → Edson Fernando
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Ilya Kvasnytsya → Yaroslav Karabin
7th Substitution
Event
Giovany Herbert → Bar Lin
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Volodymyr Mulyk → Assane Seck
5th Substitution
68'
60'
Event
Denys Miroshnichenko → Oleksiy Sych
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Valentyn Rubchynskyi → Artur Shakh
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Artur Shakh
3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Joseph Jones
2nd Yellowcard
44'
Event
Assane Seck
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
32'
30'
Event
Edson Fernando
1st Yellowcard
16'
Event
Edson Fernando → Marko Sapuga
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

68
Update Update
Volodymyr Mulyk comes on for Assane Seck.
60
Update Update
Valentyn Rubchynskyi replaces Artur Shakh.
60
Update Update
Denys Miroshnichenko is on, and Oleksii Sych is off.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Assane Seck scores to make it 1-0.
16
Update Update
Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes is on, and Marko Sapuha is off.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Oleksandr Kemkin.
89
Update Update
Thiago Borges comes on for Gleiker Mendoza.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gleiker Mendoza receives a yellow card.
80
Update Update
On comes Bento, off goes Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.
80
Update Update
On Bento, off Edson Fernando Da Silva Gomes.

CONCLUSION

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih's 1-0 triumph over Karpaty exemplifies triumph through tenacity, overcoming possession deficits and pre-match skepticism to affirm their superiority. The first-half goal proved decisive, with a robust defense repelling Karpaty's advances despite their ball dominance. This significant deviation from expectations highlights the home team's tactical discipline and ability to execute under pressure. Balanced efficiency and lack of disruptive events ensured a pure test of resolve. For Kryvbas, the points bolster momentum, while Karpaty must reflect on wasted possession. Such results remind that football rewards precision over control, setting a positive tone for Kryvbas's campaign.