Kilmarnock vs Celtic preview

Scotland flag 2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland
Rugby Park Sun, 9 Aug - 12:30 PM
Premiership
KilmarnockKIL
1 5
CelticCEL
Full Time Sun, 9 Aug 12:30 PM
Round 2 1st Phase
Goal
|
Goal
Kasper Høgh - 2', 33', 35'
Luke McCowan - 75'

CONTEXT

Celtic achieved a comprehensive 5-1 triumph over Kilmarnock in this fixture. The visitors asserted their superiority early on, securing a 3-0 advantage at the interval. Kilmarnock responded with a goal after the break, yet Celtic maintained their momentum by adding two further strikes. Possession statistics favored Celtic at 64 percent against the hosts' 36 percent. Expected goals data underscored the disparity, with Celtic registering 5.83 to Kilmarnock's 1.04. This outcome proved consistent with the underlying metrics. The significant deviation observed aligned with Celtic's superior quality on display. Overall, the game showcased Celtic's ability to convert opportunities efficiently while restricting their opponents.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Celtic exhibited a significant 100 percent deviation from expected patterns.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome aligned with the expected goals differential of 4.79.
  • Market alignment: The result was consistent with pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: Celtic's xG of 5.83 far exceeded Kilmarnock's 1.04.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead of 3-0 set the tone for Celtic's victory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Lee
R. Lee
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Connor
F. Connor
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. McFarlane
D. McFarlane
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
G. Soutar
G. Soutar
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Kilmarnock N. McCann
N. McCann
VS
Celtic M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
1.64
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.47
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Johnstone Rank: 68 L
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Dundee Rank: 63 W
St. Mirren Rank: 63 W
Dundee United Rank: 63 W
Aberdeen Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dundee Rank: 64 W
Hearts Rank: 74 W
Motherwell Rank: 71 W
Rangers Rank: 76 W
Hibernian Rank: 71 W
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 6
6

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.3
82.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kilmarnock
Celtic
Power Score
63.3
82.5
League Position
12
1
Global Rank
475
56

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kilmarnock — Opponent-weighted form score
Celtic — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kilmarnock Celtic

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kilmarnock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Celtic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kilmarnock ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Celtic
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.47
55.23
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
55.23
33.47
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kilmarnock -2.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Celtic +2.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kilmarnock
Celtic
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kilmarnock
vs
Celtic
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kilmarnock Celtic
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
40%
10%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.42 vs -0.57
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Celtic
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
10%
40%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.57 vs -0.42
Kilmarnock
Celtic
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kilmarnock
vs
Celtic
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kilmarnock Celtic
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kilmarnock 0.24
Celtic 0.70
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kilmarnock Celtic
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kilmarnock 0.11
Celtic 0.02
Kilmarnock
Celtic
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • CEL had peak pressure around 34'.
  • KIL started the game with stronger pressure.
KIL Pressure CEL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: CEL reached the top pressure at 34' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kilmarnock KIL Home
6 matches
Celtic CEL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
6
0
Draws
0
6
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
4
-16
Goal Difference
+16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-10T07:45:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 09, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Premiership, Scotland · Round 2 · 1st Phase
Stadium
Rugby Park
Capacity
18128
Attendance
8353
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ryan Lee
Frank Connor
Daniel McFarlane
Greg Soutar

Statistics

Possession
KIL
39%
CEL
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
1 Big Chances Created 10
2 Shots 10
41 Dangerous attacks 47
36 Possession 64
5 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

94 Ball Safe 105
12 Goal Kicks 4
7 Goal Attempts 24
2 Substitutions 5
18 Throwins 22
0 Hit Woodwork 3
13 Successful Headers 11
1 Assists 3
16 Dribble Attempts 8
7 Successful Dribbles 4
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

87 Attacks 98
1 Big Chances Missed 7

Possession

48 Long Passes 49
370 Passes 661
301 Successful Passes 601
81 Successful Passes Percentage 91
10 Key Passes 25
22 Successful Long Passes 33
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 67

Defensive

11 Saves 4
16 Tackles 17
4 Interceptions 11
46 Duels Won 44

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Maksymilian Stryjek
Maksymilian Stryjek Goalkeeper
7.35
2
Jamie Brandon
Jamie Brandon Defender
6.41
14
George Stanger
George Stanger Defender
6.17
15
J. Yfeko
J. Yfeko Defender
6.17
21
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Michael Schjönning-Larsen Defender
6.66
5
Mark O'Hara
Mark O'Hara
Midfielder74'
6.43
8
Erik Ring
Erik Ring Midfielder
5.77
11
Greg Kiltie
Greg Kiltie (C) Midfielder
6.97
18
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery Midfielder
7.12
36
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola Midfielder
7.05
9
Joe Hugill
Joe Hugill Attacker
6.03
10
Tyreece John-Jules
Tyreece John-Jules Attacker
6.75
49
Bailey Rice
Bailey Rice
Midfielder75'
6.37
Referee : Ryan Lee

Starting XI ▼

1
Viljami Sinisalo
Viljami Sinisalo Goalkeeper
7.52
2
Alistair Johnston
Alistair Johnston Defender
6.88
51
Colby Donovan
Colby Donovan
Defender46'
6.6
6
Auston Trusty
Auston Trusty Defender
7.46
20
Cameron Carter-Vickers
Cameron Carter-Vickers Defender
6.95
63
Kieran Tierney
Kieran Tierney Defender
8.02
8
Benjamin Nygren
Benjamin Nygren Midfielder
7.93
49
James Forrest
James Forrest
Midfielder74'
6.81
11
Camilo Durán
Camilo Durán Midfielder
8.15
17
Sebastian Tounekti
Sebastian Tounekti
Attacker64'
6.86
13
Hyun-jun Yang
Hyun-jun Yang Midfielder
6.95
14
Luke McCowan
Luke McCowan
Midfielder74'
7.39
27
Arne Engels
Arne Engels Midfielder
8.39
42
Callum McGregor
Callum McGregor (C) Midfielder
6.98
9
Kasper Høgh
Kasper Høgh Attacker
3
10
19
Callum Osmand
Callum Osmand
Attacker82'
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
82'
Event
Callum Osmand → Kasper Høgh
7th Substitution
Event
Bailey Rice → Tyreece John-Jules
6th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Luke McCowan
Right foot shot / 6th Goal
Event
Mark O'Hara  → Michael Schjönning-Larsen
5th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
James Forrest → Benjamin Nygren
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Luke McCowan → Hyun-jun Yang
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Sebastian Tounekti → Camilo Durán
2nd Substitution
Event
Michael Schjönning-Larsen
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
56'
47'
Event
Benjamin Nygren
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
46'
Event
Colby Donovan → Alistair Johnston
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
35'
Event
Kasper Høgh
Header / 3rd Goal
33'
Event
Kasper Høgh
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Joe Hugill
Off the ball foul / 1st Yellowcard
26'
2'
Event
Kasper Høgh
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
James Forrest takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
James Forrest takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
James Forrest takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Callum Osmand comes on for Kasper Waarst Hogh.
80
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Brandon takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Waarst Hogh takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Luke McCowan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Luke McCowan takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Update Update
Bailey Rice comes on for Tyreece John Jules.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Luke McCowan takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
75
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney's right-footed shot is blocked.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luke McCowan scores, making it 1-5.
74
Update Update
On comes Mark OHara, replacing Michael Schjonning Larsen.
74
Update Update
James Forrest comes on for Benjamin Nygren.
74
Update Update
On comes Luke McCowan, off goes Yang Hyun-Jun.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Luke McCowan scores, making it 1-5.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Update Update
Sebastian Tounekti comes on for Camilo Duran.
60
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Duran takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Michael Schjonning Larsen takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Michael Schjonning Larsen scores with an assist from Tom Lowery. The score is now 1-4.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Michael Schjonning Larsen scores with an assist from Tom Lowery. The score is now 1-4.
53
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
49
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Duran takes a left-footed shot, but it hits the post.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot from Benjamin Nygren with his left foot results in a goal.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Benjamin Nygren scores, making it 0-4.
46
Update Update
Colby Donovan comes on for Alistair Johnston.
43
Update Update
Offside.
38
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kasper Waarst Hogh takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kasper Waarst scores to make it 0-3, assisted by Camilo Duran.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kasper Waarst Hogh takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kasper Waarst Hogh scores to make it 0-2, assisted by Benjamin Nygren.
31
Attempt Attempt
Arne Engels takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-3.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Hugill receives a yellow card.
24
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Nygren attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Waarst Hogh takes a shot with his head but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Tierney takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Waarst Hogh's header is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Benjamin Nygren with his right foot, but it's saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Duran's left-footed shot is saved.
17
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
Arne Engels takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
12
Attempt Attempt
Tyreece John Jules takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Joe Hugill takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Tom Lowery takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Attempt Attempt
Greg Kiltie's right-footed shot is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Kasper Waarst Hogh attempts a header but misses the shot.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
5
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Duran takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Tshibola takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kasper Waarst Hogh takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kasper Waarst scores, making it 0-1.
1
Update Update
Kick-off has occurred!

CONCLUSION

The result underscores Celtic's strength as they overcame Kilmarnock with a 5-1 scoreline. From the opening stages, their intent was clear, building a substantial lead by halftime. Despite a brief response from the home side, Celtic's control remained unchallenged. The expected goals figures accurately predicted the margin of victory, confirming the alignment between performance and outcome. With no disciplinary issues affecting play, the focus stayed on the tactical execution. Celtic's possession dominance allowed them to dictate terms effectively. This victory reinforces their position and highlights areas for Kilmarnock to address in future matches. The performance demonstrated efficiency in both attack and defense.