KFUM vs Sarpsborg 08 preview
2026 Eliteserien, Norway
KFUM Arena
Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM
Round 6 ·
Regular Season
|
Mamour Ndiaye 90+7'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
Match is finished. KFUM 1–0 Sarpsborg 08. The result saw KFUM take the points. KFUM showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: KFUM's 1-0 victory exhibited a 59.3% structural deviation, rated as significant.
-
Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations.
-
xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
-
Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market evaluations.
-
xG expectations: Absence of xG data left expectations unquantified.
-
Event impact: Sarpsborg 08's red card profoundly altered second-half proceedings.
-
Red card distortion: The away red card introduced clear distortion in the second half.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
?. Simon Ytterland
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.21
E. Helgerud
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.21
E. Wisted
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.21
K. Hagenes
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
18.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
2.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.21
J. Moesgaard
VS
E. Sel
0.56
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.22
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
HamKam
Rank:
L
Aalesund
Rank:
D
Sandefjord
Rank:
L
Fredrikstad
Rank:
L
Start
Rank:
W
Sandefjord
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø
Rank:
L
Bodø / Glimt
Rank:
D
Rosenborg
Rank:
L
Start
Rank:
D
Sandefjord
Rank:
W
Molde
Rank:
W
1
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 3
3
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
KFUM
40.73%
Draw
25.5%
Sarpsborg 08
33.76%
Movement
Changes since opening
KFUM
-53.99%
Draw
+20.41%
Sarpsborg 08
+33.57%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
11.32
21.38
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
Power Score
11.32
21.38
League Position
10
12
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
KFUM
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Sarpsborg 08
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
KFUM Sarpsborg 08
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
KFUM
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Sarpsborg 08
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
KFUM
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Sarpsborg 08
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.08
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
KFUM
+1.62
Efficiency Index
vs
Sarpsborg 08
-1.62
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
KFUM
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Sarpsborg 08
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
KFUM
vs
Sarpsborg 08
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
KFUM
0.26
Sarpsborg 08
0.13
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
KFUM
0.00
Sarpsborg 08
0.02
KFUM
Sarpsborg 08
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SA08 had peak pressure around 90'.
- SA08 started the game with stronger pressure.
KFUM Pressure
SA08 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
SA08 reached the top pressure at 90' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
KFUM
KFUM
Home
4
matches
Sarpsborg 08
SA08
Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
5
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:21+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
3-4-3
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
1 M. Ndiaye
21 A. Hiim
M. Koch
#273'
24 S. Rosted
4 B. Utvik
12 C. Niyukuri
6 A. Sher
17 N. Williams
10 S. Sørli
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 6 · Regular Season
Stadium
KFUM Arena
Capacity
1500
Attendance
1491
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Øystein Simon Ytterland
Edvard Helgerud
Eirik Wisted
Kristoffer Hagenes
Next Match
KFUM
vs
Vålerenga
League: Eliteserien
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 5:15 PM
Venue: Intility Arena
Sarpsborg 08
vs
Lillestrøm
League: Eliteserien
Kickoff: Sun, 3 May - 12:30 PM
Venue: Åråsen Stadion
Statistics
Possession
KFUM
43%
SA08
57%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
1
Big Chances Created
2
7
Shots
6
42
Dangerous attacks
53
40
Possession
60
1
Corners
2
9
Free kicks
19
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
0
Penalties
1
2
Hit Woodwork
0
2
Injuries
2
5
Substitutions
5
60
Ball Safe
77
50
Successful Dribbles Percentage
46
7
Goal Attempts
3
26
Throwins
17
8
Dribble Attempts
13
4
Successful Dribbles
6
10
Goal Kicks
7
Attacking
0
Big Chances Missed
2
1
Counter Attacks
2
68
Attacks
92
Possession
75
Successful Passes Percentage
80
27
Successful Long Passes
27
354
Passes
532
265
Successful Passes
426
36
Successful Long Passes Percentage
40
8
Key Passes
4
74
Long Passes
67
Defensive
2
Saves
3
40
Duels Won
49
7
Interceptions
10
12
Tackles
6
Build-up
5
Accurate Crosses
5
15
Total Crosses
17
Discipline
2
Offsides
5
20
Fouls
9
Lineup
Referee :
Kristoffer Hagenes
Manager ▼
J. Moesgaard
Coach
Starting XI ▼
Substitutes ▼
12
Krzysztof Bakowski
Goalkeeper
6.97 13
Brage Skaret
Defender
29
Isaiah Zion Kabi Skovsgaard
Attacker
42
David Hickson
Attacker
Referee :
Kristoffer Hagenes
Manager ▼
E. Sel
Coach
Starting XI ▼
1
Mamour Ndiaye
Goalkeeper
7.15
24
Sigurd Rosted
Defender
6.97 2Menno Koch
6.68Defender73'
Substitutes ▼
87
L. Øy
Goalkeeper
5
Magnar Odegaard
Defender
26
Chriso
Midfielder
81
Mathias Svenningsen-Grønn
Midfielder
Events
2ND-HALF
90+11'
Even Sel
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+10'
90+7'
Mamour Ndiaye
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+6'
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
10th Substitution
90'
90'
Mamour Ndiaye
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
88'
9th Substitution
86'
OffTarget
80'
Penalty cancelled
73'
Menno Koch → Sigurd Rosted
8th Substitution
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
72'
6th Substitution
71'
7th Substitution
71'
5th Substitution
61'
61'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
57'
4th Substitution
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
1st Substitution
46'
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: KFUM exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.
