Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas Tue, 11 Aug - 5:00 PM
Champions League
Kauno ŽalgirisKAU
1 2
Dinamo ZagrebGNK
Full Time Tue, 11 Aug 5:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 1 - 7
Goal
|
Goal
Josip Misic - 30'
|
Red Card Ivan Filipovic 32'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Kauno Žalgiris 1–2 Dinamo Zagreb. The result saw Dinamo Zagreb take the points. Dinamo Zagreb showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb. Dinamo Zagreb showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match patterns across both sides.
  • xG alignment: Outcome consistency could not be verified because xG values were unavailable.
  • Market alignment: Final result proved aligned with overall expectations for the fixture.
  • xG expectations: Projected goal metrics stayed unconfirmed owing to absent data inputs.
  • Event impact: Second half adjustments occurred primarily through red card distortion.
  • Red card distortion: Dinamo Zagreb operated a player down after their away red card.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Massa
D. Massa
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
F. Meli
F. Meli
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Berti
A. Berti
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Marinelli
L. Marinelli
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Kauno Žalgiris Ž. Sopić
Ž. Sopić
VS
Dinamo Zagreb M. Kovačević
M. Kovačević
1.6
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
1.6 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 84 L
KÍ Rank: W
KÍ Rank: D
Drita Rank: 59 W
Drita Rank: 59 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kauno Žalgiris Rank: W
Thun Rank: 66 W
Thun Rank: 64 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kauno Žalgiris
0.63%
Draw
4.56%
Away Dinamo Zagreb
94.81%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kauno Žalgiris
-0.12%
Draw
-2.73%
Dinamo Zagreb
+2.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.33
35.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kauno Žalgiris
Dinamo Zagreb
Power Score
31.33
35.28
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kauno Žalgiris — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kauno Žalgiris Dinamo Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kauno Žalgiris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kauno Žalgiris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.28
32.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.44
33.28
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kauno Žalgiris +0.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Zagreb -0.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kauno Žalgiris
Dinamo Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kauno Žalgiris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kauno Žalgiris Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kauno Žalgiris Dinamo Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kauno Žalgiris
Dinamo Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kauno Žalgiris
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kauno Žalgiris Dinamo Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kauno Žalgiris 0.09
Dinamo Zagreb 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kauno Žalgiris Dinamo Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kauno Žalgiris 0.03
Dinamo Zagreb 0.01
Kauno Žalgiris
Dinamo Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAU had peak pressure around 59'.
  • GNK started the game with stronger pressure.
KAU Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KAU reached the top pressure at 59' (64.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kauno Žalgiris KAU Home
1 matches
Dinamo Zagreb GNK Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
0
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-12T00:00:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 11, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 1 - 7
Stadium
S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas
Capacity
15315
Attendance
6051
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Massa
Filippo Meli
Alessio Berti
Livio Marinelli

Statistics

Possession
KAU
61%
GNK
39%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
7 Shots 3
146 Dangerous attacks 73
61 Possession 39
8 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Goal Kicks 1
5 Substitutions 5
24 Throwins 16

Attacking

288 Attacks 184

Defensive

4 Saves 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
14 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

22
Deividas Mikelionis
Deividas Mikelionis (C) Goalkeeper
5.88
3
Anton Tolordava
Anton Tolordava Defender
6.04
33
Marko Konatar
Marko Konatar Defender
6.05
45
Joris Moutachy
Joris Moutachy Defender
6.04
77
Rokas Lekiatas
Rokas Lekiatas Defender
6.05
9
Leon Krekovic
Leon Krekovic Midfielder
6.38
15
Léo Ribeiro
Léo Ribeiro
Midfielder57'
6.5
14
Vykintas Slivka
Vykintas Slivka Midfielder
6.27
32
Franco Baldassarra
Franco Baldassarra Midfielder
6.27
20
Anthony Kalik
Anthony Kalik
Midfielder66'
6.5
7
Amine Benchaib
Amine Benchaib Attacker
6.43
70
Fabien Ourega
Fabien Ourega
Midfielder79'
6.5
19
Renan Oliveira
Renan Oliveira Attacker
6.43
27
Gabriel Debeljuh
Gabriel Debeljuh
Attacker46'
6.86
24
Motiejus Burba
Motiejus Burba Attacker
6.43
17
Ivan Fiolic
Ivan Fiolic
Midfielder57'
6.5
Referee : Davide Massa

Starting XI ▼

44
Ivan Filipovic
Ivan Filipovic Goalkeeper
5.7
22
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf Defender
6.5
3
Bruno Goda
Bruno Goda
Defender46'
6.26
25
Moris Valincic
Moris Valincic Defender
6.26
26
Scott McKenna
Scott McKenna Defender
6.26
36
Sergi Domínguez
Sergi Domínguez Defender
6.26
7
Luka Stojkovic
Luka Stojkovic Midfielder
6.5
10
Gabriel Vidovic
Gabriel Vidovic
Midfielder46'
6.37
21
Mateo Lisica
Mateo Lisica Midfielder
6.5
33
Ivan Nevistic
Ivan Nevistic
Goalkeeper34'
6.12
27
Josip Misic
Josip Misic (C) Midfielder
6.57
80
Lukas Kacavenda
Lukas Kacavenda Midfielder
6.57
15
Niko Galesic
Niko Galesic
Defender72'
6.5
99
Mislav Orsic
Mislav Orsic Midfielder
6.37
9
Dion Beljo
Dion Beljo Attacker
6.51
30
Fran Topic
Fran Topic
Attacker61'
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fabien Ourega → Amine Benchaib
10th Substitution
79'
72'
Event
Niko Galesic → Lukas Kacavenda
9th Substitution
Event
Anthony Kalik → Franco Baldassarra
8th Substitution
66'
61'
Event
Fran Topic → Dion Beljo
7th Substitution
Event
Ivan Fiolic → Motiejus Burba
5th Substitution
57'
Event
Léo Ribeiro → Leon Krekovic
6th Substitution
57'
Event
Gabriel Debeljuh
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
56'
54'
Event
Dion Beljo
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Gabriel Debeljuh → Renan Oliveira
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Bruno Goda → Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Gabriel Vidovic → Luka Stojkovic
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Ivan Nevistic → Mateo Lisica
1st Substitution
32'
Event
Ivan Filipovic
Foul / 1st Redcard
30'
Event
Josip Misic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
19'
Event
Lukas Kacavenda
Field Goal / 1st Goal
Event
Joris Moutachy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
11'
Event
Anton Tolordava
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'

Match Commentary

79
Update Update
Fabien Ourega comes on for Amine Benchaib.
72
Update Update
Niko Galesic comes on for Lukas Kacavenda.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded.
61
Substitution Substitution
Fran Topic is substituted for Dion Drena Beljo.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
60
Substitution Substitution
Fran Topic is substituted for Dion Drena Beljo.
57
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Fiolic is substituted off for Motiejus Burba.
57
Substitution Substitution
Leo Ribeiro is substituted off for Leon Krekovic.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-2.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Dion Drena Beljo.
46
Update Update
Bruno Goda comes on for Matteo Perez Vinlof.
46
Update Update
Gabriel Vidovic comes on for Luka Stojkovic.
46
Update Update
Gabriel Debeljuh replaces Renan Abner do Carmo de Oliveira.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
34
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Ivan Nevistic comes on for Mateo Lisica.
33
Red Card Red Card Important
Red card shown to Ivan Filipovic.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-2.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lukas Kacavenda scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Dion Drena Beljo.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Joris Moutachy.
11
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Anton Tolordava.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Davide Massa.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb. Structural assessment: Dinamo Zagreb exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.