Kairat vs Sutjeska preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Astana Arena Wed, 8 Jul - 3:00 PM
Champions League
Kairat KAI
2 1
Sutjeska Sutjeska
Full Time Wed, 8 Jul 3:00 PM
1st Qualifying Round Leg 1 of 2
Lucas Áfrico - 76'
Marc Gual - 90+2'
Goal
|
Goal
Marko Mrvaljevic - 90'

CONTEXT

Kairat hosted Sutjeska in the first leg of their two-legged tie and claimed a 2-1 victory. The match remained scoreless at halftime with both sides level at 0-0. Kairat dominated possession at 65 percent compared to Sutjeska's 35 percent. The home side netted twice after the break while the visitors replied with a single goal. No red cards were shown to either team. Although Sutjeska entered as the stronger side on paper, Kairat produced the result needed to take a narrow advantage into the return fixture. The outcome reflected a controlled second-half performance from the hosts who managed the game effectively after the interval. Minimal deviation from pre-match indicators was observed throughout the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Kairat recorded a minimal structural deviation of 3 percent from pre-match indicators.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations across both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable so alignment could not be assessed.
  • Market alignment: The 2-1 result proved aligned with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals metrics were recorded during the match.
  • Event impact: Kairat scored both goals after halftime to overturn the 0-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so match dynamics experienced no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Panchyshyn
D. Panchyshyn
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
D. Zaporozhenko
D. Zaporozhenko
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Vysotsky
V. Vysotsky
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
O. Kalyonov
O. Kalyonov
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Kairat R. Urazbakhtin
R. Urazbakhtin
VS
Sutjeska M. Pekovic
M. Pekovic
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 99 L
Club Brugge Rank: 87 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0 i
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kairat
96.99%
Draw
2.37%
Away Sutjeska
0.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.72
50
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kairat
Sutjeska
Power Score
34.72
50
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kairat — Opponent-weighted form score
Sutjeska — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kairat Sutjeska

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kairat

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sutjeska

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kairat ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sutjeska
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.00
24.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.71
31.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kairat — Efficiency Index
vs
Sutjeska — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kairat
Sutjeska
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kairat ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sutjeska
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kairat Sutjeska
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kairat Sutjeska
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kairat
Sutjeska
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kairat
vs
Sutjeska
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kairat Sutjeska
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kairat 0.19
Sutjeska 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kairat Sutjeska
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kairat 0.03
Sutjeska 0.02
Kairat
Sutjeska
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAI had peak pressure around 76'.
  • KAI started the game with stronger pressure.
KAI Pressure Sutjeska Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KAI reached the top pressure at 76' (60.56).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kairat KAI Home
0 matches
Sutjeska Sutjeska Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-13T09:52:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
T. Anarbekov
Kazakhstan
1 T. Anarbekov
E. Tapalov
Substitution
Kazakhstan
20 E. Tapalov
A. Martynovich
Substitution
Belarus
14 (C) A. Martynovich
L. da Silva
Brazil
44 L. da Silva
L. Machado Mata
Portugal
3 L. Machado Mata
D. Kassabulat
Substitution
Kazakhstan
4 D. Kassabulat
J. Oksanen
Finland
13 J. Oksanen
A. Mrynskiy
Kazakhstan
24 A. Mrynskiy
J. Costa Monteiro
Portugal
7 J. Costa Monteiro
O. Jukkola
Substitution
Finland
19 O. Jukkola
M. Gual Huguet
Spain
28 M. Gual Huguet
V. Giljen
Montenegro
1 (C) V. Giljen
A. Ražnatović
Montenegro
22 A. Ražnatović
A. Babić
Montenegro
72 A. Babić
B. Kopitović
Substitution
Montenegro
15 B. Kopitović
A. Golubović
Substitution
Montenegro
2 A. Golubović
M. Šimun
Substitution
Montenegro
77 M. Šimun
D. Hočko
Montenegro
6 D. Hočko
J. Čađenović
Montenegro
20 J. Čađenović
P. Aničić
Substitution
Montenegro
9 P. Aničić
M. Mrvaljević
Montenegro
99 M. Mrvaljević
V. Čavor
Substitution
Montenegro
11 V. Čavor

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 08, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 1st Qualifying Round · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Astana Arena
Capacity
14356
Attendance
14300
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dmytro Panchyshyn
Dmytro Zaporozhenko
Volodymyr Vysotsky
Oleksandr Kalyonov

Statistics

Possession
KAI
63%
Sutjeska
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
9 Shots 5
83 Dangerous attacks 33
65 Possession 35
7 Corners 1
16 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
23 Throwins 25

Attacking

137 Attacks 85

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Starting XI ▼

1
Temirlan Anarbekov
Temirlan Anarbekov Goalkeeper
6.12
3
Luís Mata
Luís Mata Defender
6.26
14
Aleksandr Martynovich
Aleksandr Martynovich (C) Defender
6.5
25
Aleksandr Shirobokov
Aleksandr Shirobokov
Defender46'
6.26
20
Erkin Tapalov
Erkin Tapalov Defender
6.5
9
Edmilson
Edmilson
Attacker46'
6.46
24
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
Aleksandr Mrynskiy Defender
6.26
44
Lucas Áfrico
Lucas Áfrico Defender
6.45
4
Damir Kasabulat
Damir Kasabulat Midfielder
6.45
17
Azamat Tuyakbaev
Azamat Tuyakbaev
Midfielder46'
6.37
7
Jorginho
Jorginho Midfielder
6.37
13
Jaakko Oksanen
Jaakko Oksanen Midfielder
6.37
19
Oiva Jukkola
Oiva Jukkola Midfielder
6.5
81
Ismail Bekbolat
Ismail Bekbolat
Attacker74'
6.78
28
Marc Gual
Marc Gual Attacker
6.82
Referee : Dmytro Panchyshyn

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Giljen
Vladan Giljen (C) Goalkeeper
5.88
2
Aleksa Golubović
Aleksa Golubović Defender
6.25
5
Igor Pajovic
Igor Pajovic
Midfielder84'
6.37
15
Boris Kopitovic
Boris Kopitovic Defender
6.5
44
Radoš Dedić
Radoš Dedić
Defender69'
6.05
22
Andrija Raznatovic
Andrija Raznatovic Defender
6.05
72
Anto Babic
Anto Babic Defender
6.05
6
Deni Hocko
Deni Hocko Midfielder
6.38
9
Petar Anicic
Petar Anicic Midfielder
6.5
7
Aleksandar Boljevic
Aleksandar Boljevic
Midfielder60'
6.23
11
Vasilije Cavor
Vasilije Cavor Midfielder
6.5
10
Balsa Toskovic
Balsa Toskovic
Attacker60'
6.43
20
Jovan Cadjenovic
Jovan Cadjenovic Midfielder
6.23
77
Marko Simun
Marko Simun Midfielder
6.37
19
Aleksandar Scekic
Aleksandar Scekic
Midfielder84'
6.37
99
Marko Mrvaljevic
Marko Mrvaljevic Attacker
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marc Gual
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
90+2'
90'
Event
Marko Mrvaljevic
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
84'
Event
Igor Pajovic → Aleksa Golubović
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Aleksandar Scekic → Marko Simun
9th Substitution
Event
Lucas Áfrico
Field Goal / 1st Goal
76'
75'
Event
Aleksandar Boljevic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ismail Bekbolat → Oiva Jukkola
7th Substitution
74'
69'
Event
Radoš Dedić → Boris Kopitovic
6th Substitution
60'
Event
Aleksandar Boljevic → Petar Anicic
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Balsa Toskovic → Vasilije Cavor
5th Substitution
Event
Edmilson → Erkin Tapalov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Aleksandr Shirobokov → Aleksandr Martynovich
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Azamat Tuyakbaev → Damir Kasabulat
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Damir Kasabulat
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
41'
Event
Aleksa Golubović
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Jovan Cadjenovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Jorginho
Offside / Goal Disallowed
33'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marc Gual scores to make it 2-1, assisted by Ismail Bekbolat.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Mrvaljevic scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Deni Hocko.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Substitution: Igor Pajovic comes on for Aleksa Golubovic.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Aleksandar Scekic comes on for Marko Simun.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lucas Africo scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Ismail Bekbolat.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Yellow card shown to Aleksandar Boljevic.
75
Substitution Substitution
Ismail Bekbolat is substituted off for Oiva Jukkola.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
73
Update Update
Rados Dedic is on, and Boris Kopitovic is off.
69
Update Update
Balša Tošković is on, and Vasilije Cavor is off.
60
Update Update
Aleksandar Boljevic is on, and Petar Anicic is off.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Update Update
Azamat Tuyakbaev is on, and Damir Kasabulat is off.
46
Update Update
Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho comes on for Erkin Tapalov.
46
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Aleksandr Shirobokov comes on for Aleksandr Martynovich.
46
Update Update
The first half ends with a score of 0-0.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Damir Kasabulat.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Aleksa Golubovic.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Jorginho.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-0.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Dmitro Panchishin.

CONCLUSION

Kairat secured a valuable 2-1 home win in the opening leg despite Sutjeska being viewed as the stronger side beforehand. The visitors held firm until the interval yet could not maintain parity once the second half began. Kairat's superior possession allowed them to dictate tempo and create the decisive moments after the restart. With no dismissals recorded the contest stayed eleven versus eleven throughout. The narrow margin leaves the tie finely balanced ahead of the return fixture. Sutjeska will need to improve their attacking output away from home to overturn the deficit. Kairat meanwhile must remain disciplined to protect their slender aggregate lead over the remaining ninety minutes.