Kairat vs Levski Sofia preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Champions League, Europe
Astana Arena Tue, 11 Aug - 3:00 PM
Champions League
KairatKAI
0 1
Levski SofiaLEV
Full Time Tue, 11 Aug 3:00 PM
3rd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 0 - 2
|
Goal
Reinaldo - 13'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Kairat 0–1 Levski Sofia. The result saw Levski Sofia take the points. Levski Sofia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. xG finished Kairat 1.4 – 0.8 Levski Sofia. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Kairat 0-1 Levski Sofia. Levski Sofia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with Levski Sofia's overall performance.
  • xG alignment: The outcome was not consistent with expected goals totals.
  • Market alignment: The result stayed aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Kairat posted higher expected goals at 1.35 compared to Levski Sofia's 0.75.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal proved decisive in securing Levski Sofia's aggregate win.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred to alter the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Siebert
D. Siebert
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
J. Seidel
J. Seidel
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
R. Foltyn
R. Foltyn
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Burda
M. Burda
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Kairat R. Urazbakhtin
R. Urazbakhtin
VS
Levski Sofia J. Velázquez Santiago
J. Velázquez Santiago
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.2
1.8 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levski Sofia Rank: 69 L
Omonia Nicosia Rank: W
Omonia Nicosia Rank: L
Sutjeska Rank: W
Sutjeska Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kairat Rank: W
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 74 D
Universitatea Craiova Rank: 75 W
Borac Banja Luka Rank: 66 W
Borac Banja Luka Rank: 66 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kairat
28%
Draw
30.5%
Away Levski Sofia
41.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
Kairat
+27.36%
Draw
+26.32%
Levski Sofia
-53.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
30.94
39.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kairat
Levski Sofia
Power Score
30.94
39.33
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kairat — Opponent-weighted form score
Levski Sofia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kairat Levski Sofia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kairat

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Levski Sofia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kairat ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Levski Sofia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.95
23.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.18
42.95
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kairat +1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Levski Sofia -1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kairat
Levski Sofia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kairat
vs
Levski Sofia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kairat Levski Sofia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
49%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.66 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kairat Levski Sofia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
0%
49%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
+0.00 vs -0.66
Kairat
Levski Sofia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kairat
vs
Levski Sofia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kairat Levski Sofia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kairat 0.34
Levski Sofia 0.38
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kairat Levski Sofia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kairat 0.04
Levski Sofia 0.00
Kairat
Levski Sofia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • KAI had peak pressure around 33'.
  • KAI started the game with stronger pressure.
KAI Pressure LEV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: KAI reached the top pressure at 33' (91.74).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kairat KAI Home
1 matches
Levski Sofia LEV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
0
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-12T00:00:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 11, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Champions League, Europe · 3rd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 0 - 2
Stadium
Astana Arena
Capacity
14356
Attendance
7000
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Siebert
Jan Seidel
Rafael Foltyn
Max Burda

Statistics

Possession
KAI
56%
LEV
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 5
61 Dangerous attacks 24
56 Possession 44
9 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 12
3 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 12
0 Hit Woodwork 2
0 Assists 1
10 Dribble Attempts 20
5 Successful Dribbles 9
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

Attacking

138 Attacks 66
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

55 Long Passes 66
499 Passes 416
425 Successful Passes 343
85 Successful Passes Percentage 82
17 Key Passes 8
36 Successful Long Passes 33
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

1 Saves 6
18 Tackles 14
8 Interceptions 6
45 Duels Won 48

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 2
7 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
Temirlan Anarbekov
Temirlan Anarbekov (C) Goalkeeper
6.52
3
Luís Mata
Luís Mata Defender
6.44
4
Damir Kasabulat
Damir Kasabulat Defender
6.52
9
Edmilson
Edmilson
Attacker64'
6.8
25
Aleksandr Shirobokov
Aleksandr Shirobokov Defender
7.53
44
Lucas Áfrico
Lucas Áfrico Defender
7.89
8
Olzhas Baybek
Olzhas Baybek Midfielder
6.37
81
Ismail Bekbolat
Ismail Bekbolat
Attacker46'
6.73
13
Jaakko Oksanen
Jaakko Oksanen Midfielder
7.64
19
Oiva Jukkola
Oiva Jukkola Midfielder
7.3
22
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça Midfielder
6.47
24
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
Aleksandr Mrynskiy Midfielder
6.96
28
Marc Gual
Marc Gual Attacker
7.56
15
Mansur Birkurmanov
Mansur Birkurmanov
Attacker84'
6.4
Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

92
Svetoslav Vutsov
Svetoslav Vutsov Goalkeeper
8.6
20
Álex Centelles
Álex Centelles Defender
6.74
21
Aldair
Aldair Defender
6.86
22
Mazire Soula
Mazire Soula
Attacker79'
6.27
31
Nikola Serafimov
Nikola Serafimov Defender
7.03
50
Kristian Dimitrov
Kristian Dimitrov (C) Defender
7.05
11
Armstrong Oko-Flex
Armstrong Oko-Flex Midfielder
6.85
2
Hevertton
Hevertton
Defender79'
6.43
17
Everton Bala
Everton Bala Midfielder
7.14
3
Maicon
Maicon
Defender79'
6.39
18
Gasper Trdin
Gasper Trdin Midfielder
7.34
19
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
7.49
35
Serginho
Serginho Midfielder
6.89
10
Asen Mitkov
Asen Mitkov
Midfielder90+2'
7
Reinaldo
Reinaldo Attacker
6.91
9
Juan Perea
Juan Perea
Attacker83'
6.43

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gustavo Pinto Mendonça
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Asen Mitkov  → Serginho
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Juan Perea
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Nikola Serafimov
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Mansur Birkurmanov → Marc Gual
7th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Juan Perea → Reinaldo
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Maicon → Everton Bala
3rd Substitution
79'
Event
Hevertton → Armstrong Oko-Flex
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Mazire Soula  → Aldair
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Aldair
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Edmilson → Damir Kasabulat
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Damir Kasabulat
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Ismail Bekbolat → Olzhas Baybek
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Olzhas Baybek
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+6'
13'
Event
Reinaldo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
7'
Event
Everton Bala
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Match ends with a score of 0-1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustavo Mendonca receives a yellow card.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Update Update
Asen Mitkov comes on for Sérgio Miguel Lobo Araújo.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Perea.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Nikola Serafimov.
87
Attempt Attempt
Mansur Birkurmanov takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Nikola Serafimov.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
86
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 1-1.
84
Update Update
On Mansur Birkurmanov, off Marc Gual.
83
Update Update
Perea is on, and Reinaldo is off.
82
Update Update
Perea replaces Reinaldo.
81
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Africo takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
79
Update Update
On Hevertton, off Armstrong Okoflex.
79
Update Update
Mazire Soula is on, Aldair Neves is off.
79
Update Update
Maicon comes on for Everton Bala.
78
Attempt Attempt
Marc Gual's left-footed shot is blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Marc Gual takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Africo's header is saved.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aldair Neves receives a yellow card.
72
Attempt Attempt
Oiva Jukkola takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
70
Update Update
Offside.
67
Attempt Attempt
Marc Gual takes a left-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Oiva Jukkola takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Sérgio Miguel Lobo Araújo takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
64
Attempt Attempt
Marc Gual takes a right-footed shot but misses.
64
Update Update
Edmilson de Paula Santos Filho comes on for Damir Kasabulat.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
61
Attempt Attempt
Gasper Trdin takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
58
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Damir Kasabulat.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Attempt Attempt
Armstrong Okoflex takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
55
Update Update
Offside.
52
Attempt Attempt
Oiva Jukkola takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
46
Update Update
Ismail Bekbolat comes on for Olzhas Baibek.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Olzhas Baibek.
45
Attempt Attempt
Bala from Everton takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Reinaldo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
Offside.
41
Attempt Attempt
Reinaldo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Reinaldo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandr Shirobokov takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Marc Gual takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Aleksandr Mrynskiy with his right foot misses the target.
29
Attempt Attempt
Oiva Jukkola takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Reinaldo scores with a right-footed shot.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 0-1.
12
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Africo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Bala from Everton takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
8
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Bala of Everton.
7
Attempt Attempt
Marc Gual's left-footed shot is blocked.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Daniel Siebert.

CONCLUSION

Levski Sofia advanced from the tie after completing a 0-1 win in the second leg against Kairat. Despite trailing in possession and expected goals the visitors maintained defensive structure to protect their aggregate advantage. Kairat created opportunities throughout but could not overcome the early deficit established at halftime. The 0-1 scoreline reflected Levski Sofia's efficiency in managing limited resources on the night. Progression was confirmed without the need for further adjustments in the second half. This outcome demonstrated the impact of early scoring in knockout formats where aggregate control takes precedence over individual match statistics.