Juventus vs Fiorentina preview
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Juventus Stadium
Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Round 37 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Aug 13
CONTEXT
In the encounter between Juventus and Fiorentina the home side held 58 percent possession against the visitors 42 percent. Juventus entered as the stronger team yet could not find the net while Fiorentina scored twice to claim the win. The halftime score was 0-1 after the away side opened the scoring. A red card was shown to Fiorentina during the contest but they still extended their advantage in the second half to finish with a 0-2 result. The outcome reflected notable adjustments after the interval linked to the red card. Juventus struggled to convert their territorial control into clear chances throughout the ninety minutes. Fiorentina showed composure in defense and clinical finishing on the break despite playing with ten men for part of the game.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Final score: Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina. Fiorentina showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performances.
-
xG alignment: xG alignment could not be evaluated because expected goals figures were unavailable.
-
Market alignment: The final result demonstrated that market alignment was false.
-
xG expectations: xG expectations stayed undetermined due to missing expected goals information.
-
Event impact: Event impact centered on Fiorentina maintaining their lead after the interval.
-
Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped the second half adjustments for both sides.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Massa
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
F. Meli
1st Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
S. Alassio
2nd Assistant
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
L. Marinelli
4th Official
•
0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0
L. Spalletti
VS
P. Vanoli
1.96
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce
Rank: 69
W
Hellas Verona
Rank: 64
D
AC Milan
Rank: 84
D
Bologna
Rank: 78
W
Atalanta
Rank: 85
W
Genoa
Rank: 75
W
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genoa
Rank: 75
D
Roma
Rank: 85
L
Sassuolo
Rank: 74
D
Lecce
Rank: 68
D
Lazio
Rank: 80
W
Hellas Verona
Rank: 64
W
25
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 15 - 7
7
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Juventus
71.36%
Draw
16.81%
Fiorentina
11.83%
Movement
Changes since opening
Juventus
+71.12%
Draw
+14.89%
Fiorentina
-86.01%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.63
76.93
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Juventus
Fiorentina
Power Score
85.63
76.93
League Position
3
15
Global Rank
32
87
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Juventus
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Fiorentina
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Juventus Fiorentina
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Juventus
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Fiorentina
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Juventus
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Fiorentina
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Juventus
Fiorentina
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
—
vs
—
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Juventus
Fiorentina
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Juventus
Fiorentina
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
–
Juventus
vs
Fiorentina
Attack After Winning
Possession transition → offence
Juventus
Fiorentina
Goals per Match
Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Shots per Match
Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match.
↑ better
—
Dangerous Attacks
Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match.
↑ better
—
Transition Efficiency Index
Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition.
Higher = stronger on the counter
Juventus
0.00
Fiorentina
0.00
Defence After Losing
Possession loss → defensive exposure
Juventus
Fiorentina
Goals Conceded
Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Shots Conceded
Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match.
↓ better
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded
Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match.
↓ better
—
Vulnerability Index
Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks.
Lower = better transition defence
Juventus
0.00
Fiorentina
0.00
Juventus
Fiorentina
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- JUV had peak pressure around 63'.
- FIO started the game with stronger pressure.
JUV Pressure
FIO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index:
JUV reached the top pressure at 63' (100.00).
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Juventus
JUV
Home
47
matches
Fiorentina
FIO
Away
Match Record
25
Wins
7
15
Draws
15
7
Losses
25
Goals
70
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
70
+28
Goal Difference
-28
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-05-17T09:45:27+00:00
STARTING XI
Match Formation
4-2-3-1
Match Formation
4-3-3
43 (C) D. de Gea Quintana
21 R. Gosens
P. Comuzzo
#1564'
4 M. Brescianini
44 N. Fagioli
27 C. Ndour
19 M. Solomon
91 R. Piccoli
65 F. Parisi
General Information
Date & Time
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium
Juventus Stadium
Capacity
41507
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Davide Massa
Filippo Meli
Stefano Alassio
Livio Marinelli
Next Match
Juventus
vs
Torino
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 24 May - 12:00 AM
Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Fiorentina
vs
Atalanta
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 24 May - 12:00 AM
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
Statistics
Possession
JUV
59%
FIO
41%
Top Statistics
0
Goals
2
2
Big Chances Created
0
26
Shots
10
75
Dangerous attacks
25
58
Possession
42
6
Corners
2
12
Free kicks
16
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
64
Successful Dribbles Percentage
25
14
Dribble Attempts
8
17
Successful Headers
13
8
Goal Kicks
11
17
Throwins
9
9
Successful Dribbles
2
0
Assists
1
5
Substitutions
5
1
Injuries
0
16
Goal Attempts
7
59
Ball Safe
67
Attacking
99
Attacks
67
2
Big Chances Missed
0
Possession
46
Long Passes
59
61
Successful Long Passes Percentage
32
28
Successful Long Passes
19
391
Successful Passes
278
481
Passes
361
81
Successful Passes Percentage
77
20
Key Passes
8
Defensive
52
Duels Won
39
16
Tackles
10
5
Interceptions
7
2
Saves
9
Build-up
28
Total Crosses
9
15
Accurate Crosses
1
Discipline
16
Fouls
12
1
Offsides
1
Lineup
Referee :
Davide Massa
Manager ▼
L. Spalletti
Coach
Starting XI ▼
19
Khéphren Thuram
7.03Midfielder69'
9
Dušan Vlahović
Attacker
6.85 Substitutes ▼
2
Emil Holm
Defender
6.81 
18
Filip Kostić
Midfielder
6.82 
Referee :
Davide Massa
Manager ▼
P. Vanoli
Coach
Starting XI ▼
15Pietro Comuzzo
6.73Defender64'
21
Robin Gosens
Defender
6.83 4
Marco Brescianini
Midfielder
6.58 65
Fabiano Parisi
Attacker
6.93 Substitutes ▼
22
Jacopo Fazzini
Midfielder
6.58 
Events
2ND-HALF
90+1'
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
10th Substitution
90'
85'
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
9th Substitution
81'
74'
8th Substitution
Dušan Vlahović
Goal disallowed
72'
72'
Argument / 1st Redcard
Khéphren Thuram → Andrea Cambiaso
6th Substitution
69'
7th Substitution
69'
64'
5th Substitution
64'
4th Substitution
64'
Pietro Comuzzo → Luca Ranieri
3rd Substitution
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45'
34'
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
32'
1st Substitution
22'
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
CONCLUSION
Fiorentina secured a notable away victory despite receiving a red card and facing the stronger Juventus side that dominated possession. The visitors led 1-0 at the break and added a second goal after the restart to complete a 0-2 triumph. Juventus created opportunities through sustained pressure but lacked the finishing quality needed to equalize. The red card introduced complications yet Fiorentina adapted effectively to protect their advantage. This result underscores how set-piece execution and counter-attacking efficiency can outweigh possession statistics in determining the outcome. Both teams will review defensive lapses and attacking transitions ahead of upcoming fixtures. The match illustrated the fine margins that separate success from disappointment in competitive league encounters.
Match Commentary