Jablonec vs Varaždin preview

Europe flag 2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe
Stadion Střelnice Thu, 30 Jul - 4:00 PM
Europa Conference League
JablonecJAB
2 0
VaraždinNKV
Full Time Thu, 30 Jul 4:00 PM
2nd Qualifying Round Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 4 - 3
Roberto Puncec - 29' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Jablonec 2–0 Varaždin. The result saw Jablonec take the points. Jablonec showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Jablonec 2-0 Varaždin. Jablonec showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Lata
F. Lata
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
E. Burgu
E. Burgu
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
E. Doda
E. Doda
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
E. Çelaj
E. Çelaj
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Jablonec L. Kozel
L. Kozel
VS
Varaždin N. Šafarić
N. Šafarić
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jablonec Rank: 64 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Jablonec
56.51%
Draw
23.86%
Away Varaždin
19.63%

Movement

Changes since opening
Jablonec
-40.81%
Draw
+21.95%
Varaždin
+18.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.54
70.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Jablonec
Varaždin
Power Score
68.54
70.93
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
362
290

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Jablonec — Opponent-weighted form score
Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Jablonec Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Jablonec

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Jablonec ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.02
18.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.46
33.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Jablonec +1.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Varaždin -1.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Jablonec
Varaždin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Jablonec ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Varaždin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Jablonec Varaždin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Jablonec Varaždin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Jablonec
Varaždin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Jablonec
vs
Varaždin
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Jablonec Varaždin
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Jablonec 0.23
Varaždin 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Jablonec Varaždin
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Jablonec 0.00
Varaždin 0.04
Jablonec
Varaždin
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • JAB had peak pressure around 58'.
  • JAB started the game with stronger pressure.
JAB Pressure NKV Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: JAB reached the top pressure at 58' (49.45).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Jablonec JAB Home
1 matches
Varaždin NKV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-07-31T00:01:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Jul 30, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2026/2027 Europa Conference League, Europe · 2nd Qualifying Round · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 4 - 3
Stadium
Stadion Střelnice
Capacity
6280
Attendance
4423
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Florjan Lata
Erind Burgu
Egin Doda
E. Çelaj

Statistics

Possession
JAB
48%
NKV
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
6 Shots 5
57 Dangerous attacks 52
48 Possession 52
3 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

77 Ball Safe 92
12 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
25 Throwins 22
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

93 Attacks 128

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
17 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Florjan Lata

Starting XI ▼

1
Jan Hanus
Jan Hanus Goalkeeper
6.5
4
Nemanja Tekijaski
Nemanja Tekijaski (C) Defender
6.5
15
Dusan Pavlovic
Dusan Pavlovic Defender
6.69
18
Martin Cedidla
Martin Cedidla Defender
6.5
20
Jiri Slama
Jiri Slama Defender
6.61
9
Antonin Rusek
Antonin Rusek
Attacker63'
6.46
6
Nelson Okeke
Nelson Okeke Midfielder
6.5
7
Vakhtang Chanturishvili
Vakhtang Chanturishvili Midfielder
6.5
16
Hugo Ahl
Hugo Ahl
Midfielder87'
8
Filip Zorvan
Filip Zorvan Midfielder
6.5
25
Sebastian Nebyla
Sebastian Nebyla
Midfielder76'
6.5
13
Richard Sedlacek
Richard Sedlacek Midfielder
6.5
14
Daniel Soucek
Daniel Soucek
Defender86'
21
Matej Polidar
Matej Polidar Midfielder
6.5
44
Lamin Jawo
Lamin Jawo Attacker
6.5
27
Filip Vecheta
Filip Vecheta
Attacker77'
6.5
Referee : Florjan Lata

Starting XI ▼

33
Josip Silic
Josip Silic Goalkeeper
5.88
4
Luka Skaricic
Luka Skaricic Defender
6.05
13
Mario Mladenovski
Mario Mladenovski
Defender84'
6.5
5
Sven Lesjak
Sven Lesjak Defender
6.05
24
Mario Marina
Mario Marina
Midfielder58'
6.5
14
Roberto Puncec
Roberto Puncec (C) Defender
5.86
23
Frane Maglica
Frane Maglica Defender
6.05
7
Matej Vuk
Matej Vuk Midfielder
6.37
20
Gregor Sikosek
Gregor Sikosek
Defender46'
6.26
8
Tomislav Duvnjak
Tomislav Duvnjak Midfielder
6.23
17
Ivan Mamut
Ivan Mamut
Attacker59'
6.5
10
Aleksa Latkovic
Aleksa Latkovic Midfielder
6.27
22
Luka Mamic
Luka Mamic Midfielder
6.27
38
Iuri Tavares
Iuri Tavares Midfielder
6.27
9
Stipe Juric
Stipe Juric
Attacker85'
6.5
28
Ivan Canjuga
Ivan Canjuga Attacker
6.39

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Ivan Canjuga
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Hugo Ahl → Vakhtang Chanturishvili
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Daniel Soucek → Richard Sedlacek
9th Substitution
86'
85'
Event
Stipe Juric → Iuri Tavares
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Mario Mladenovski → Luka Skaricic
7th Substitution
Event
Lubos Kozel
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Filip Vecheta → Lamin Jawo
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Antonin Rusek
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Sebastian Nebyla → Filip Zorvan
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Antonin Rusek → Jiri Slama
4th Substitution
63'
59'
Event
Ivan Mamut → Tomislav Duvnjak
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Mario Marina → Sven Lesjak
2nd Substitution
Event
Dusan Pavlovic
Field Goal / 1st Goal
54'
54'
Event
Tomislav Duvnjak
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Gregor Sikosek → Matej Vuk
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Roberto Puncec
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
29'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 2-1.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ivan Canjuga.
87
Substitution Substitution
Hugo Ahl is substituted off for Vakhtang Chanturishvili.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Daniel Soucek comes on for Richard Sedlacek.
85
Update Update
Stipe Juric comes on for Gregor Sikosek.
84
Update Update
Mario Mladenovski is on, and Luka Skaricic is off.
77
Update Update
Filip Vecheta comes on for Lamin Jawo.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Antonin Rusek.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Antonin Rusek.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Update Update
Antonin Rusek is on, and Jiri Slama is off.
59
Update Update
Ivan Mamut replaces Tomislav Duvnjak.
58
Substitution Substitution
Mario Marina is substituted for Sven Lesjak.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Tomislav Duvnjak.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dusan Pavlovic scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Jiri Slama.
46
Update Update
Gregor Sikosek is on, and Matej Vuk is off.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! An own goal by Roberto Puncec puts the score at 1-0.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Martin Cedidla scores to make it 1-0.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Florjan Lata.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Jablonec 2-0 Varaždin. Structural assessment: Jablonec exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.