Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb preview

Croatia flag 2026/2027 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Sat, 1 Aug - 4:30 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961Istra 1961
2 3
Lokomotiva ZagrebLOK
Full Time Sat, 1 Aug 4:30 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Emil Frederiksen - 30', 58'
Goal
|
Goal
Ivan Katic  - 90+2'

CONTEXT

Istra 1961 hosted Lokomotiva Zagreb in a competitive fixture that ended 2-3 to the visitors. The halftime score was 1-2 with Lokomotiva ahead. Istra controlled 53 percent of possession while Lokomotiva held 47 percent yet the away side proved more clinical in front of goal. Lokomotiva Zagreb entered as the stronger team and delivered a performance that secured the three points. No red cards were issued during the contest leaving both sides at full strength throughout. The result reflected a significant deviation linked to the eventual winners. Several key moments shaped the outcome as the teams traded opportunities in an open encounter that favored the visitors overall.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lokomotiva Zagreb recorded a significant deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was unavailable to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: No xG expectations could be evaluated from available data.
  • Event impact: Key events contributed directly to the 2-3 away victory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
P. Pavlešić
P. Pavlešić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 30.4
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 4
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0.36
League Avg 0
B. Zobenica
B. Zobenica
1st Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Krznarić
F. Krznarić
2nd Assistant • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
I. Martinčić
I. Martinčić
4th Official • 0 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Istra 1961
VS
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
0.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Varaždin Rank: 70 L
Rijeka Rank: 75 D
Osijek Rank: 68 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 W
Gorica Rank: 65 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 85 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 85 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 77 D
Varaždin Rank: 70 D
Rijeka Rank: 75 L
Osijek Rank: 68 D
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 65 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 2
2

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.45
68.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Power Score
66.45
68.5
League Position
8
3
Global Rank
409
346

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.13
26.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.70
51.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 +1.80 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb -1.80 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Lokomotiva Zagreb
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Lokomotiva Zagreb
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Lokomotiva Zagreb
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Istra 1961
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Istra 1961 Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Istra 1961 0.28
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Istra 1961 0.06
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.02
Istra 1961
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Istra 1961 had peak pressure around 64'.
  • Istra 1961 started the game with stronger pressure.
Istra 1961 Pressure LOK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Istra 1961 reached the top pressure at 64' (89.12).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
8 matches
Lokomotiva Zagreb LOK Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
10
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-08-02T00:03:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch

General Information

Date & Time
Aug 01, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2026/2027 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity
9800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Patrik Pavlešić
Bojan Zobenica
Filip Krznarić
Ivana Martinčić

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
54%
LOK
46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 4
9 Shots 4
82 Dangerous attacks 51
53 Possession 47
7 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
19 Throwins 24
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Assists 2
9 Dribble Attempts 6
9 Successful Dribbles 6
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

110 Attacks 98

Possession

22 Long Passes 24
413 Passes 346
341 Successful Passes 281
83 Successful Passes Percentage 82
16 Key Passes 8

Defensive

2 Saves 6
8 Tackles 11
12 Interceptions 11
47 Duels Won 40

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic (C) Goalkeeper
6.16
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Defender
6.66
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić Defender
6.28
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defender
6.47
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Defender
6.26
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic
Defender63'
6.47
22
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
2
9.17
25
Gustavo Albarracín
Gustavo Albarracín Midfielder
6.43
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric
Midfielder77'
6.24
30
Nik Skafar Zuzic
Nik Skafar Zuzic Midfielder
7.03
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder77'
6.84
34
Matija Kablar Midfielder
80
Ivan Saranic
Ivan Saranic Midfielder
7.19
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican
Attacker85'
94
Hamza Jaganjac
Hamza Jaganjac Attacker
6.61
Referee : Patrik Pavlešić

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
7.24
4
Athanasios Triantafyllou
Athanasios Triantafyllou Defender
7.51
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Defender
6.74
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber Defender
6.43
27
Noa Godec
Noa Godec
Defender46'
6.5
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Defender
7.15
7
Dušan Vuković
Dušan Vuković Midfielder
6.87
21
Teodor Kralevski
Teodor Kralevski
Defender87'
8
Ivan Katic
Ivan Katic Midfielder
6.92
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic (C) Midfielder
7.7
11
Mirko Susak
Mirko Susak Midfielder
6.03
15
Dominik Thaqi
Dominik Thaqi
Attacker87'
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Midfielder
6.36
9
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar
Midfielder61'
6.66
24
Mirko Maric
Mirko Maric Attacker
6.93
22
Mate Antunovic
Mate Antunovic
Attacker71'
6.42

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Mate Antunovic
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Ivan Katic 
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Ivan Katic 
Field Goal / 5th Goal
87'
Event
Teodor Kralevski → Dušan Vuković
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Dominik Thaqi → Mirko Susak
10th Substitution
Event
Silvio Gorican → Ivan Saranic
8th Substitution
85'
79'
Event
Noa Godec
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Nik Skafar Zuzic
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Antonio Mauric → Gustavo Albarracín
7th Substitution
77'
71'
Event
Mate Antunovic → Mirko Maric
5th Substitution
Event
Daouda Doumbia → Matija Kablar
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Advan Kadusic → R. Hrvatin
4th Substitution
63'
61'
Event
Leon Belcar → Jakov-Anton Vasilj
2nd Substitution
Event
Emil Frederiksen
Field Goal / 4th Goal
58'
49'
Event
Marko Pajac
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Noa Godec → Marcel Lorber
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Dušan Vuković
Field Goal / 3rd Goal
Event
Nik Skafar Zuzic
Offside / Goal Disallowed
32'
Event
Emil Frederiksen
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
30'
25'
Event
Athanasios Triantafyllou
Field Goal / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Ivan Katic.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Mate Antunovic.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ivan Katic scores to make it 2-3, assisted by Marko Pajac.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Katic takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
87
Update Update
Teodor Kralevski comes on for Dusan Vukovic.
87
Update Update
Dominik Thaqi comes on for Mirko Susak.
85
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Mauric takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Silvio Gorican replaces Ivan Saranic.
83
Update Update
Silvio Gorican replaces Ivan Saranic.
83
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Doumbia attempts a header but misses the shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card issued to Noa Godec.
78
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vukovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Dukan Ahmeti is on, and Nik Skafar Zuzic is off.
77
Substitution Substitution
Antonio Mauric is substituted on for Gustavo Albarracín.
74
Attempt Attempt
Shot - Hamza Jaganjac Head Shot Missed
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
72
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Saranic takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
71
Update Update
Mate Antunovic is on, and Mirko Maric is off.
67
Attempt Attempt
Hamza Jaganjac takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
63
Update Update
Advan Kadusic comes on for Rene Hrvatin.
62
Attempt Attempt
Nik Skafar Zuzic takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Leon Belcar comes on for Jakov-Anton Vasilj.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jakov-Anton Vasilj takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emil Frederiksen takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emil Frederiksen takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
58
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Ivan Saranic with his left foot is saved.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Emil Frederiksen scores, bringing the match to 2-2.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
54
Attempt Attempt
Nik Skafar Zuzic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nik Skafar Zuzic takes a shot with his right foot but misses.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Pajac receives a yellow card.
47
Attempt Attempt
Niko Sepic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
46
Update Update
Noa Godec is on, and Marcel Lorber is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hamza Jaganjac takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Hamza Jaganjac takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Update Update
Hamza Jaganjac's header is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Saranic takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dusan Vukovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dusan Vukovic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Saranic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dusan Vukovic scores, making it 1-2.
40
Attempt Attempt
Nik Skafar Zuzic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jakov-Anton Vasilj takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Nik Skafar Zuzic.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Nik Skafar Zuzic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nik Skafar Zuzic scores, making it 2-1.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Emil Frederiksen takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Emil Frederiksen scores to make it 1-1, assisted by Nik Skafar Zuzic.
30
Attempt Attempt
Mirko Susak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Shot by Athanasios Triantafyllou, who scores with a right-footed shot.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Athanasios Triantafyllou scores, making it 0-1.
17
Attempt Attempt
Matija Subotic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
15
Attempt Attempt
Dusan Vukovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Saranic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded.
7
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Saranic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Patrik Pavlesic.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Istra 1961 2-3 Lokomotiva Zagreb. Structural assessment: Lokomotiva Zagreb exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.